by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 7 - 6 - 8
Race 2: 7 - 8 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 11 - 5 - 1/1A - 4
Race 6: 8 - 4 - 7 - 10
Race 7: 4 - 9 - 1A - 8
Race 8: 6 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 9: 6 - 3 - 5 - 9
Race 10: 4 - 1A - 10 - 6
RACE 2: GUY AMERICAN DREAM (#7)
The likely heavy favorite is Three Goals, but he’s hard to completely trust off his disappointing recent loss as the 3-5 favorite. He’s been claimed by Jason Servis out of that race, which is obviously a good sign. However, I do have some lingering concerns about whether this colt really wants to sprint. His two best speed figures were earned going a mile and he seemed to have trouble keeping up with the early pace going 6 furlongs last time. That could be an issue again here with the speed Wushu Warrior in the race. I want to take a small shot against him with Guy American Dream. Randi Persaud’s fleeting hot streak at Aqueduct seems to have come to an end, but I still think this runner is somewhat interesting. He actually didn’t run that badly against a much better group in his debut, and he followed that up with a solid effort at this level two back. That day, he contested an honest pace that ended up falling apart, and he did well to hang on for third late. He didn’t really appreciate turf last time, and he gets back on the right surface here.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,8
RACE 3: MY PIRATE (#4)
I’m just not enamored with any of the proven turf horses in this race. Michael Wonderful beat both of today’s main rivals, Ride to the Sunset and Congruity, when winning his maiden at Aqueduct last fall. However, he’s making his first start since then, and Rudy Rodriguez is just 1 for 27 over the past five years with horses coming off layoffs of 100 to 200 days on turf. Congruity’s early speed makes him dangerous, but he’s just been a disappointment overall since his promising start. He was facing tougher company in his two most recent starts at Gulfstream and was hindered by wide trips in both races. I think he’s the horse to beat since he figures to get the jump on Ride to the Sunset, who has no early speed. However, I want to go somewhere else. My Pirate’s dirt races are unspectacular, but there is some evidence to suggest he will handle turf. Tapizar is a decent 12 percent turf sire, and My Pirate is a half-brother to three turf winners, including talented runners Love Cove and Half Heaven. Those two siblings came much earlier in this dam’s broodmare career, but at least this horse is going to be a price.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6
RACE 5: LABEQ (#11)
I have no major knocks against Frontier Market, who is very likely to win this race. He ran well in each of his starts this past winter at Gulfstream and meets a group that is largely unproven over this surface. The only concern – and it’s a minor one – is that he seemed to improve with the stretch-out in distance last time, and today’s one-mile trip may be just short of his best. I’m using him prominently, but I do see one viable alternative. Labeq was given plenty of chances to establish himself as a dirt horse following a decent debut behind Vino Rosso last fall. However, he’s always had turf as a backup option given his pedigree, and he now gets a chance to run over that surface. His dam, Life Is Sweet, was a Grade 1 winner who raced primarily on synthetic tracks in California but also handled grass. Labeq is also a full sibling to two minor turf winners. Kiaran McLaughlin has had plenty of success with this move, and the horse figures to be a square price.
Win: 11
Exacta Box: 5,11
RACE 8: SALUTE WITH HONOR (#6)
Polar Jet looks pretty formidable as he comes into this race off a series of speed figures that simply make him faster than his competition. Furthermore, he’s cutting back slightly in distance after attempting to stretch his speed to a mile last time. He seems like the most likely winner, but the price figures to be very short, and I think there’s at least one other runner to consider in this spot. Salute With Honor is also cutting back, and I think that will intensify his late kick. His stretch run was somewhat muted last time, as he was unable to run down Pletcher favorite Driven to Compete after that one attended a slow early pace. Salute With Honor had previously been successful sprinting when he came with a strong late run to get up for the win on Feb. 9, his first start in 9 months. It’s reasonable to assume that he can move forward off that effort, and 7 furlongs appears to be an ideal distance for him. An honest pace is all but assured with the speedy Jewel Can Disco in this race.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 6,7
RACE 9: GREAT WIDE OPEN (#6)
This is among the most competitive races on the card. The horse to beat appears to be Commute. While he’s raced primarily at Woodbine in recent seasons, it’s undeniable that he’s run some of the fastest races. His runner-up performance in last year’s Connaught Cup was a sensational effort, and a repeat of that would make him awfully tough here. Furthermore, he’s one of the few entrants who has successfully raced on the early lead, which makes him stand out in a field of late runners. I can’t pick Kharafa even though he’s run well in this race before, given his closing style and his disadvantageous outside post position. I’m more interested in other horses with tactical speed. One of those is Ready for Rye, who routinely runs well when given opportunities to try turf. He’s very much a part of my play, but the horse who interests me most is longshot Great Wide Open. This horse may not be good enough to win, but he will offer value. He actually ran deceptively well in this race last year, finishing a close fourth at 36-1. Since then, he’s had some ups and downs, but his two most recent efforts suggest he’s back in top form. He beat weaker two back at Fair Grounds but did so in wire-to-wire fashion. Last time, in the Danger’s Hour, a slow break severely compromised his chances, as he refused to settle thereafter and dragged his rider up into a stalking position. All things considered, he did well to come within five lengths. Now he gets a massive rider upgrade to Manny Franco and can make use of his tactical speed.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,5,7,9,10
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5,7,9,10 with 6