by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 1 - 8 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 3 - 9
Race 4: 3 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 10 - 7 - 5
Race 6: 1 - 6 - 10 - 5
Race 7: 7 - 9 - 2 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 9: 2 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 10: 3 - 2 - 7 - 6
RACE 1: ENASOIT (#5) / LOVE AND CARE (#1)
Long Night is likely to go off as the heavy favorite, and he certainly can win. However, I think his form looks better at first glance than when you really dig into it, so I'm not quite convinced that he's a cinch to beat this field. He had little excuse when losing to a similar bunch last time, and even his second-place finish at Gulfstream two back was not particularly inspiring. I prefer two of his competitors here. My top pick is Enasoit, who endured a nightmare of a first quarter-mile last time, getting pushed into the rail and steadied multiple times. He was rank throughout after that and actually did well to finish fifth. He could play out as the controlling speed here, and I think he proved that he handles the turf. I also want to use Love and Care, who finally gets back on the grass after a series of dirt races. His turf debut last year was a deceptively strong effort, and then something clearly happened in his next start, sending him to the sidelines for nearly a year. I think he's finally getting back into the right kind of spot.
Win: 1,5
Exacta: 1,5 with 1,2,5,8
RACE 4: DEUCES HIGH (#3)
Zabaione has continued to maintain solid form since midwinter and is the horse to beat, but I don't think he's any kind of decisive favorite in this spot. I also would want to use West Hills Giant in his first start off the claim by Robertino Diodoro, who has won with 7 of 13 runners making that move in dirt races at this meet. However, he's a hard horse to trust on the win end. The runner who I think will offer the best value is Deuces High. I realize that he needs to improve slightly, but I think he's had excuses in some of his poor recent efforts. That was certainly the case last time in January, when he raced four wide around both turns on a day when the inner track was strongly favoring the inside. This horse seems to run his best races around one turn, and he proved that he can perform well fresh when winning his debut going a mile last summer.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6
RACE 5: DREAMS ARE PAZIBLE (#3)
There's no turf form to go on in this race, but there are a couple of interesting runners switching surfaces. The obvious one is Goodbye Brockley, who is a half-sister to turf stakes winner Lady Joan. She's shown some ability on dirt and would be pretty formidable here if she were to move up with this surface switch. I'll use her, but I think that Dreams Are Pazible will offer better value. While her dam did more winning on synthetic surfaces, she ran some of her best races sprinting on turf. This filly's debut is much better than it seems given the wide trip she got, and Todd Pletcher has strong numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 6 for 13 with 2-year-old second-time-starting maidens in turf sprints ($2.36 ROI).
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,10
RACE 7: OFF LIMITS (#7)
Chad Brown holds a very strong hand in this race. Ancient Secret may have found herself in a tough spot considering her recent form, but Brown's other two entrants are definite win candidates. Conquest Babayaga put in an eye-catching stretch rally in the Intercontinental last time when nearly running down the talented Mississippi Delta. She's very much part of my play, but I think Off Limits could offer better value. While she only beat allowance company last time, that was a pretty deep field, and she asserted her dominance in a fashion that suggests she's taken a step forward as a 5-year-old. The other top contender is On Leave, but I was disappointed by her return at Pimlico last time. She needs to rebound.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,9
Trifecta: 7 with 2,9 with 1,2,4,8,9
RACE 9: UNCHAINED MELODY (#2)
The two fillies coming out of the Kentucky Oaks both had some things working for and against them that day. Lockdown did encounter some minor traffic trouble, but she was one of the few horses who saved ground throughout and really took advantage of a rail bias. Vexatious was never on the rail, but she also didn't get her momentum interrupted at any point while rallying into a collapsing pace. They both can win, but I'm going to try to beat them with Unchained Melody. She's stepping up in class, but this filly showed serious talent in her allowance win here last month. She set a solid pace and gamely held off the talented Jamyson 'n Ginger in the lane. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 4,6 with 1,3,4,6,7