by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 9 - 8 - 7
Race 2: 1 - 10 - 3 - 8
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 8 - 6
Race 6: 6 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 8: 1 - 9 - 2 - 8
Race 9: 4 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 10: 1 - 5 - 3 - 13
RACE 5: PIRELLI TOWER (#1)
The horse to beat is Packed House, who makes his first start against New York-breds as he ships in from Kentucky for Steve Asmussen. The 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned in his debut is among the fastest numbers in the field, and horses have come back out of that race to run faster in subsequent starts. The main critique of his Churchill performance is that he was able to obtain a forward early position, and the field basically ran around the track in the same order throughout. On the other hand, the Pace Projector is predicting that he should be racing close to the front once again, and speed is typically dangerous at this distance. Asmussen does not have great numbers in this situation, as he is just 3 for 44 (7 percent, $0.65 ROI) with second-time-starting maidens in turf routes over the past five years. This is a competitive field, and there are some reasons to look elsewhere. I’m taking a shot with the most logical alternative, Pirelli Tower. The Christophe Clement barn has been unstoppable through the final few weeks of the Belmont meet. Through Thursday, he had won with 8 of his last 15 starters at the track. Pirelli Tower’s debut was encouraging, but horses have not come back out of that race to run particularly well. While his second start came up slower, I actually thought he showed a bit more. He did not get off to a great start, as Irad Ortiz Jr. had to steady him after the start and appeared to almost lose his iron. Pirelli Tower then steadied again soon afterward and was forced to settle at the back of the pack. The pace was fast, but Pirelli Tower still deserves some credit for making a wide run around the far turn. Now he’s drawn the rail, which is an advantage going this distance, and I think Ortiz will be looking to use more of the tactical speed he showed in his debut. They’re the main two. At a bigger price, I also want throw Millies Party Boy into the mix. This rider is tough to bet, but the horse actually has some ability, as he got a peculiar trip last time while facing much stronger open-company foes.
Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,4,8
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 6,7,9
RACE 6: ENTHUSIASTIC GAL (#6)
Some may be deterred by the fact that Enthusiastic Gal has run slower speed figures in her two starts this year, but she’s actually run much better than it appears on each of those occasions. In her first start back from the two-year layoff, she was in good position coming off the far turn but could never extricate herself from a tight spot in behind the leaders once into the stretch. She was steadied badly in traffic and lost all chance in a race that she otherwise may have won. Next time out at Monmouth, she avoided traffic trouble but was totally against the flow of the race. The pace was very slow for the distance (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures in PPs), as the race was dominated by the front-runners. Enthusiastic Gal was the only horse who made a significant run from the back of the pack, and she did so despite making a five-wide move around the far turn. After showing little confidence by dropping her in for a bottom-level tag off the layoff, I like that her connections have steadily moved her up in class with each start. I believe she’s in the best form of anyone in this group, and the Pace Projector is predicting that she should get a fast pace to close into this time.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,2,4,5
RACE 8: MALIBU STACY (#1)
Epping Forest is the horse to beat for the hot Christophe Clement barn, as they attempt to rake in a few more wins before the end of the meet. When she’s at her best, this filly is very good. If she’s able to repeat her most recent effort, she’s going to be very tough for this field to hold off. That day, she was far back at the quarter pole, but unleashed a furious late rally to get up for the win. She went rocketing past next-out winner Fear No Evil in the late stages, and runner-up Okinawa is a talented filly in her own right. I’m certainly using her, but she steps up in class to face some legitimate foes, including fellow late runner Jc’s Shooting Star, who has also been in career-best form. Yet both of these fillies could be hindered by a potentially unfavorable pace scenario. Team of Teams was supposed to be the main speed, but she scratched out of this spot in favor of a race on Sunday. Given her absence, Malibu Stacy is likely to inherit the pacesetter’s role, and I think that could make her awfully difficult to reel in. The Pace Projector was predicting a situation favoring runners near the front even before the scratch. While most of Malibu Stacy’s turf starts have come at distances farther than this 6-furlong trip, she’s shown plenty of speed both on dirt and turf and has proven that she can get brave when left alone on the lead. Like the Clement barn, George Weaver’s stable has quietly started to pick up steam recently, and I think this mare finds herself in the right spot.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,9
Trifecta: 1 with 2,9 with 2,3,5,8,9
RACE 9: VOODOO SONG (#4)
Disco Partner is clearly the horse to beat as he goes for a repeat win in this race. He repeats the same pattern that carried him to victory last year, as he enters this off another win in the Jaipur. While he didn’t break the world-record time in his victory this year, he nevertheless ran very well to get up for the victory while overcoming a moderate early pace. I have little doubt that he can handle the one-turn-mile distance at Belmont Park, but it is worth noting that this year’s edition of the Forbidden Apple came up significantly tougher than last year’s. This could easily be a graded stakes event given the quality of the field. He’s the most likely winner, but I think he’s going to need a top effort to come away with the victory. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with stretch-out sprinters Blind Ambition and Pocket Change likely to head out toward the front. That could create problems for major contender Voodoo Song, but he’s still my top pick. Voodoo Song just ran off with his riders in many of his races last year. However, he’s noticeably mellowed as a 4-year-old and even seemed comfortable rating off another horse last time out in the Poker. That change in disposition should aid his chances here, as he would be a formidable rival to the favorite if he were to repeat his Poker effort. This horse has been extremely game in his two recent starts over this turf course, and I think he’s going to put up a strong fight. Projected is not without a chance, but I wonder if he really has that killer instinct. I would also include wild card Mr Havercamp, who may like this distance at Belmont.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6,7
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with ALL
RACE 10: TROFFISSIO (#1)
How do you assess Tequila Sunday? She’s always had a little bit of talent, but getting her to show it in the afternoon has been a struggle. She finally put it all together last time when she was a dominant winner at this level, but that win was snatched from her after it was reveled that she broke through the gate a fraction of a second prior to the official start. Some may argue that she only was able to win that race because she interfered with other rivals after the break. While it’s true that she veered in badly, the fact of the matter is that she hampered mostly inferior runners. She won so easily because her main rival Long Eyelashes, who was unaffected by that gate incident, merely failed to show up with a competitive effort. If Tequila Sunday runs back to that performance, she’s formidable, but the cutback to 6 furlongs does not help her cause and she’s not totally reliable. The problem with this race is that the main alternatives all have major issues. Long Eyelashes is impossible to trust off her uncompetitive performance last time. Queen Apollo obviously ran faster speed figures than most of her rivals last winter, but she showed a propensity to stop badly at the eighth pole in those races. The long absence and drop in class are not great signs. Since I’m not enamored with the short prices, I’m taking a shot with Troffissio, who switches to dirt for her second start. This filly actually didn’t run that badly in her debut, as she didn’t break sharply and rushed up through the pack to contest a fast pace. She hung in until the quarter pole before fading in a race that fell apart late. She’s not really bred to be a turf horse, since her female family is primarily made up of dirt influences. Furthermore, over the past five years, Chris Englehart is 12 for 39 (31 percent, $2.23 ROI) with maidens switching from turf to dirt, and he’s 5 for 19 doing so at NYRA. Dylan Davis needs to hustle this filly out to the front from her rail post position.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,8,9,13