PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 2:   8 - 6 - 2 - 10
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   3 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 5 - 12 - 3
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 11 - 8
Race 8:   9 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   8 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 10:   6 - 9 - 11 - 8
Race 11:   4 - 8 - 6 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: SMART AND SASSY (#8)
She’s Dreamin is the horse to beat after running well in both of her starts at this meet, albeit with good trips. I also think you have to respect Tizza Temper, who cuts back in distance after tiring at the end of two route tries in recent months. I’ll be using both in my wagers, but the runner who interests me the most in this spot is the first-time turf runner Smart and Sassy. This filly is by Freud and out of dam who has produced multiple turf- stakes winners Invading Humor and Distorted Beauty, so she figures to love this surface. She showed good speed in her debut on dirt before apparently slipping on the wet ground and losing her rider.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,6,7,10

RACE 3: WHAT A CATCH (#4)
Of the recent maiden winners, the ones who appear most likely to attract support are Morrison and Morning Breez. I respect the latter, who ran a legitimately fast race to win his maiden. However, I’m somewhat against Morrison. While he did win by 17 lengths last time, he was entered for turf that day and was beating a field of turf horses – none of whom appears to be any good. This is a much sterner test. The runner who could get somewhat ignored is What a Catch. While his debut didn’t come up that fast, he ran well within the context of the race. He attacked a fast pace early and put away the speeds in a race that otherwise fell apart. The other three horses involved in the pace all lost by 13 lengths or more.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5

RACE 4: VICKI’S DANCER (#2)
Fire Key is likely to go favored off her visually impressive score at the N1X allowance level in May. While it’s true that any horse winning a turf sprint by more than four lengths must have been dominant, she did have everything her own way on the front end that day, setting a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs). Beyond her, this race is pretty wide open. I’m taking a shot with Vicki’s Dancer. I know she beat a weaker field at Parx last time, but she was just so superior to that field. Her recent dirt races are terrible, but she’s actually run consistently well on turf all along, even as her dirt form declined. She fits at this level and should be a square price. The other runner that I want to use, primarily underneath, is Lakeside Sunset (#6). She was steadied badly after the start of her last race and actually ran better than it might seem. She has run competitive turf races in the past, and deserves a look at a price.

Win: 2
Exacta Box: 2,5,6
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7

RACE 6: ABBOT (#7)
There’s a lot going on in here. I’m somewhat against morning-line favorite Stormin Maclean, who had his chance last time when facing a weaker field than the one he meets today. I prefer horses dropping in class. One of those is Baseline, who faced a tougher starter allowance group last time and must be used. I’ll include him, but my top pick is Abbot. When this horse began his turf career, he looked like a potential stakes horse and actually picked up some black type behind Giant Run and Highland Sky at Gulfstream. However, things went awry after that, and he spent a year on the shelf. His return at Monmouth last time looks discouraging at first glance, but he got an impossible trip that day. Wearing blinkers for the first time, he became extremely rank and fought his rider for more than half of the race. Now, that equipment is removed, and he’s in against a much softer field. The longshot that I want to throw in at a much larger price is The Orphan Miracle (#12), who is a full-brother to turf sprint winner Hatta’s Appeal, and may take to this surface.

Win: 7
Exacta Box: 5,7,12

RACE 9: STOLEN PISTOL (#8)
As I mentioned above, the maiden race won by What a Catch featured a fast and contested pace. While the winner was the only horse to survive that early duel, I thought Stolen Pistol ran deceptively well in there. He wasn’t that quick into stride but engaged the leaders on the far turn before tiring late. The speed figure came up slow, but I think he showed some ability that day. If he’s fitter for his second start, I think he has a chance to pull off the upset. I’ll use him with the logical horses Collective Effort and Bad Guy, who come out of a faster heat.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5,6

RACE 10: LOVER’S KEY (#6)
I want to give another shot to Lover’s Key, who nearly pulled off a stakes victory in her local debut last time. She was projected to be the controlling speed of that race, and Jose Lezcano did ride her to the front early. However, he quickly reined her in, to such an extent that he basically surrendered her pace advantage while letting the others get into the race. Lady Joan, the eventual winner, was even with her by the time they reached the top of the stretch, and Lover’s Key couldn’t quite fend her off. This time, she’s facing a softer group, and she can stalk a pace scenario that figures to be a bit more honest. Her prior races in Florida were really good, and I think she’s better than this field.

Win: 6
Trifecta: 6 with 8,9,11 with 3,8,9,10,11