by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 2: 10 - 9 - 11 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 4: 8 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 10 - 7
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 7: 2 - 9 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 9 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 9 - 13 - 3 - 12
Race 10: 2 - 1 - 11 - 7
Race 11: 9 - 8 - 6 - 2
RACE 1: MALIBU MISCHIEF (#2)
I believe there are some potentially vulnerable favorites on this card, and that theme commences with the first race of the day. Eight Oaks may win, but I don’t want to pick her on top at a short price. She earned a speed figure that makes her very competitive here when she was last seen over a year ago. It’s possible that she’s just a much better dirt horse and will pick up where she left off here, but I’m not convinced. She won an off-the-turf race against three inferior rivals over a muddy, sealed track. I want to try to beat her with Malibu Mischief. This filly is not totally trustworthy either, but she should be a better price. She likely needed her first start off the layoff last time when fading against a better group. However, what should really make a difference for her is the opportunity to get back on a fast, harrowed track. This filly has encountered sloppy, sealed tracks in each of her last two starts and she clearly dislikes them. She was running much better over fast tracks prior to that and would almost certainly beat this field if able to get back to those races. Furthermore, Gary Contessa named a rider that rarely wins for her return last time, and now he’s making the switch to Dylan Davis. It would appear that there is more intention for her to put forth a competitive effort this time.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,6
RACE 2: GOLCONDA (#10)
Southern Brigade makes a ton of sense as the likely favorite in this spot. He was closing well at the end of his turf sprint debut and showed good improvement when stretched out in distance in September at Belmont. He was one of the favorites in his next start in October, but he lost all chance on the backstretch when Javier Castellano nearly fell out of the irons after Southern Brigade clipped heels with a rival. The drop in class off the layoff is not a major concern, since he probably belongs at this level. I’m using him prominently, but I think there are some horses who will offer better value in this competitive field. My top pick is Golconda. Some may overlook this guy merely due to the fact that he’s had more chances than many of the rest. However, only 5 of those starts have come on turf, and the majority of them have resulted in speed figures that would make him a major player in this race. Most recently, he was racing against maiden special weight company, and he was hardly disgraced two back. All of the horses who finished ahead of him that day would be strong favorites in a spot like this and he was running on well late. Some will be deterred by his last effort, but I don’t think that performance is quite as bad as it seems. Golconda was rating behind a slow pace in a race where few horses made up any ground. Furthermore, both the winner Opt and fourth-place finisher Overlord have returned to run significantly faster speed figures in their subsequent starts. That leads me to believe the speed figures for this race may be way off and Golconda probably ran a number that is 10 to 15 points higher. He’s getting a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz, and he’s more reliable going this distance than many others in this field.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,7,9,11
RACE 4: BANGLE GAL (#8)
Cash Offer will probably beat this field if she repeats either of her last two efforts. I’m just a little skeptical that she’s going to run as well in a race where she is likely to face some early pace pressure. She was riding a gold rail two back while setting moderate fractions, so her margin of victory was heavily exaggerated that day. She stepped up nicely in the Bouwerie last time, but she was once again allowed to dawdle on the lead in a race where no one but the winner could make up any ground. This time she is going to have to deal with the early speed of It’s a Chance and Shesasuperfreak, who are both drawn to her inside. Perhaps she can rate and win, but I don’t want to bet her at a short price give my doubts. In my opinion, the best alternative is Bangle Gal. She ran well in her debut at Fair Grounds, closing steadily against open company. She was then throw right into a stakes next time out and was hardly disgraced in finishing third. A turf experiment failed and then she easily won an off-the-turf race last time. I’m not convinced that she really wants to go a mile, so I like this turnback to 6 1/2 furlongs. She figures to sit a good trip in mid-pace behind the dueling leaders, and I believe she can pick them up late.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 5,8 with 5,8 with 2,3,4,6
RACE 5: PERCENTAGE (#5)
Montauk Daddy may win this race for Linda Rice, who is renowned for her work with second-time starting maidens. This colt was intended for grass in his debut, but nevertheless attracted some support when the race was rained off. He closed well to be second that day before the well-meant Tuggle and would be quite formidable if he can merely transfer that form to grass. He’s certainly cut out to handle this surface as a son of synthetic specialist Daddy Long Legs, and he appeared to move like a turf horse in that OBS Sales work. However, there are a number of first time starters with excellent pedigrees for this spot. The one who intrigues me most is Percentage. Christophe Clement is 6 for 29 (21 percent, $2.87 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in turf sprints between 5 and 6 furlongs over the past 5 years. These types often run well and don’t always take a ton of money to suggest they’re live. I really like this colt’s pedigree for these conditions. He’s a son of The Factor, who wins with 14 percent of his first time turf starters. The dam was a decent sprinter on synthetic surfaces and she has produced Fast Boat, a 4-time turf sprint winner with a top TimeformUS Speed Figure of 116. He appears to be drilling well for this unveiling in company with some of Clement’s runners who have already debuted, and he appears to be outworking them.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 6,7,10
RACE 6: FINAL JEOPARDY (#5)
Code of Honor is clearly the horse to beat as he makes his first start since a strong effort in the Kentucky Derby. It’s a testament to his current form that he was able to run that well going a distance that still may be too far for him. This turnback to a one-turn mile should suit him perfectly, and his versatile running style should ensure that he works out a good trip. I concede that he is the most likely winner, but those recent running lines will significantly drive down his price, and there are others in this race with serious talent. Rowayton is perhaps the most intriguing alternative. He looked fantastic in that allowance score last time, shooting through a hole inside at the eighth pole to win with something left. His final-sixteenth clocking in well under six seconds is quite impressive. However, now he must stretch out to a mile, and I’m not convinced that he will be quite as effective going this far. He possesses so much speed, and while the connections have clearly harnessed that energy as he’s gotten older, he still may be better suited to sprint distances. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with Final Jeopardy, who figures to be the best price of the main contenders. This horse has more ability than he has shown in his last two starts. He lost all chance at the start of the Wood Memorial, and then he just never seemed totally focused last time in the Peter Pan as he drifted about and shied from the whip. I remain impressed by his one-mile allowance win at Gulfstream back in March, and I believe this turnback to that distance could unlock his potential.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 1,2,6
RACE 7: NEWSPAPEROFRECORD (#2)
I had a lot of trouble arriving at a selection in this race, so I ultimately landed on the runner who I believe to be the best horse. It’s true that Newspaperofrecord has not run as well this year as she did as a 2-year-old. Is that because she has failed to continue developing, or has it been due to her propensity to get too rank in the early part of her races? I tend to side with the latter explanation. It’s very difficult for any horse to win a race around two turns when they are as reluctant to settle as Newspaperofrecord has been in her two starts as a three-year-old. So what kind of trip will she get in this race? Chad Brown has stated that he wants to get her off the pace, and some might be wondering just who he will do that. For starters, there is another horse in this race who wants to be on the lead. The Japanese filly Jodie has been a one-dimensional front-runner in Japan and that kind of speed usually translates to American racing. One would imagine she is going to the front, and I could also envision Chad Brown using Café Americano as a target. After all, her presence in this race is somewhat curious. What will happen when Newspaperofrecord finds herself behind horses? That’s anyone’s guess, but it is certainly a possibility that she will switch off an preserve her late speed. If she relaxes for long enough to get this distance, she will win this race. I don’t think there’s any doubt that she’s more naturally gifted than any other runner in this field. Chad and Irad just have to team up to orchestrate a plan that gets her to the winner’s circle. I have some faith that they can do it. Ultimately, I concede that I normally wouldn’t pick a horse like this, but I just couldn’t latch onto any of the alternatives. Cambier Parc is probably the second most likely winner, since she should have no trouble handling the stretch-out in distance, but I’m not quite sure how good she actually is. The same goes for Concrete Rose, who could struggle more with stamina. I’m not a big fan of the European fillies. Olendon figures to attract support, but I was not enthused by her races in France, where she faced fairly weak fields. That Prix Saint-Alary is listed as a Group 1, but the horses who competed in that race are Group 3 types. Frankly, the foreign shipper who intrigues me most is Jodie. She wanted no part of 1 1/2 miles in the Japanese Oaks last time, but her Flora Stakes was solid and there are some similarities between Tokyo Racecourse and Belmont Park. She’s better than some may realize and speed is dangerous on the inner course.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 1,4,6,7,9
Trifecta: 2 with 4,9 with 1,4,6,7,9
RACE 8: PROMISES FULFILLED (#9)
Promises Fulfilled could only manage fourth in a loaded Met Mile, but he actually ran a remarkable race considering the circumstances. He was forced to stalk the pace three wide over a rail-biased surface yet still stayed on well in the final quarter behind the best older horses in the country. You can excuse his loss in the Churchill Downs prior to that, as he was returning just five weeks after his trip to Dubai. At his best, he’s one of the most talented sprinters in the country, and his Met Mile suggests he’s getting back to that form. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. I think he is an extremely likely winner, and I’m not trying to beat this horse, even at a short price. I don’t trust his main rival, Do Share. It took this horse a few starts to get back on track for the Mike Maker barn, but he exploded with a devastating effort in the Tom Fool back in March. Yet he was not nearly as effective in the Churchill Downs last time, and then he was a late vet scratch from the True North in June. He clearly possesses the brilliance to get it done, but a lack of pace here and his general inconsistency make him a precarious proposition. The other horse I would use prominently is Nicodemus. This 4-year-old appears to be peaking for Linda Rice. He ran a competitive speed figure in the Westchester, and he just didn’t appear to be comfortable going shorter than this in the True North last time. That said, he was still finishing fastest of all, and he can sit closer to the pace this time if Promises Fulfilled sets a moderate pace.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 9 with 4,7 with ALL
RACE 9: CAPE OF GOOD HOPE (#9)
I find it very hard to separate the two undefeated Chad Brown runners. I’m giving the slight edge to Digital Age among the American contingent, though trips will likely decide who fares best. There are some concerns about this colt stretching out to 1 1/4 miles, but he’s handled every challenge thus far and has impressed me with each start. I loved the turn of foot he displayed in deep stretch of the American Turf, and that kind of acceleration should come in handy in a large, congested field like this. He also possesses more tactical speed than some of his rivals, so Irad Ortiz should be able to find a spot in mid-pack, whereas some others will have to pass almost the entire field. That’s the major concern for a horse like Seismic Wave, who is a stone cold closer. He will lag at the back of the pack early and try to rocket past everyone in the lane. He just might be able to do it because he is quite talented and he has the right rider on his back. However, it’s still no small task to come from that far back in a race like this. He was getting to Demarchelier at the end of the Pennine Ridge last time, but that undefeated Brown runner dug in at the end when he felt Seismic Wave’s presence. Demarchelier is not quite as flashy as the two aforementioned colts, but he’s shown up with a good effort every time and just has a way of getting his nose down in front. He shouldn’t have any issue stretching out in distance and he figures to get the jump on Seismic Wave once again. I’m using all three of these colts prominently, but my top pick is the European invader Cape of Good Hope. He may not be the most likely winner, but I think he’s going to offer some value in this spot. Some handicappers will be turned off by his poor performance in the Hampton Court just 16 days ago, but I think he had a legitimate excuse that day. A great deal of rain had fallen during the middle of the week at Ascot, and he just didn’t seem comfortable striding out over the soft going in the stretch. He actually loomed as a threat with about 3 furlongs to go, but the demanding ground took its toll late. Prior to that, Cape of Good Hope had run very well to finish fourth in the Prix du Jockey Club. The top two finishers in that race seem like very nice 3-year-olds and Cape of Good Hope finished well clear of some good horses. He clearly handles the distance, and he has room to improve as a full-brother to multi-millionaire world traveler Highland Reel. I’ve been impressed by his rider Wayne Lordan, and I would love to see them hatch a plan that has this colt relatively close to what could be a moderate pace.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,8,12,13,14
Trifecta: 9 with 3,12,13 with 1,3,8,12,13,14
RACE 10: PRESERVATIONIST (#2)
It’s rare to find elite Thoroughbreds who are as versatile as Catholic Boy, who seems equally proficient on dirt and turf. He is now stretching back out to the distance at which he earned both of his Grade 1 victories last year, and that’s an advantage in a race where many of his rivals prefer either shorter or longer trips. It never hurts to draw the rail for this unique configuration at Belmont. While he can be effective from anywhere, he may find himself right up on the pace with no confirmed front-runners in this field. This Jonathan Thomas trainee looked better than ever in that June 23 drill and appears to be coming into this in peak form. The one concern is that he doesn’t have as great of a speed figure edge over this field as many might assume. I believe the main danger to the favorite is Preservationist. This lightly raced 6-year-old finally gets an opportunity to face graded stakes foes after working his way through his allowance conditions. He showed talent right from the start, but a number of physical setbacks prevented him from ascending to this level sooner. His connections have been very patient, and that approach is now paying dividends. He returned from the layoff looking better than ever last time, slipping through inside over a sloppy track that he doesn’t necessarily love and defeating the very good Expert while displaying an improved turn of foot. He now must stretch out to 1 1/4 miles, but there’s plenty of stamina in his pedigree, and he’s a robust horse who appears physically suited to it. His last TimeformUS Speed Figure of 119 is actually one point higher than the best dirt number Catholic Boy has earned. At anything close to his 5-1 morning line, I think he offers value.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7,11
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 3,4,7,11