by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 3: 9 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 5: 3 - 4 - 9 - 6
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 2 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 7 - 1 - 10 - 4
Race 9: 10 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 10: 8 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 11: 9 - 4 - 11 - 7
RACE 2: BREAKING THE RULES (#6)
This is a very competitive optional claiming race, in which I think it’s important to note which horses are moving in the right direction, as opposed to those whose form may be on the downswing. In some ways, Phi Beta Express is the horse to beat given his string of solid dirt sprint performances. It’s somewhat perplexing that they tried the turf last time given his lack of pedigree for that surface, but now he’s back on the main track. He’s dangerous, but he’s going to have company up front from runners like Street Vision and Mr. Brix. Life in Shambles and King Kranz are difficult to assess, since they ran well over the winter, but their recent efforts leave something to be desired. Both are in for the tag. Gold for the King has a right to take a step forward second off the layoff, but he’s not exactly the most trustworthy type either. All of these runners have had many chances, and I’m actually most interested in the least experienced member of this cast. Breaking the Rules is not going to be a very big price, but I think he’s a pretty talented young horse. He stepped up with a big effort to beat solid allowance performer Professor Snape two back before they tried stretching him out in the Easy Goer. Little went right for him that day, as he was unwisely dragged off the pace in the early part of the race and found himself in an uncomfortable position behind a wall of horses for much of the running. He had to swing to the far outside in the stretch to get a clear path and he never stopped running. Ultimately, he may not want to go that far, so I like this turnback.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,7
RACE 5: HARANGUE (#3)
On a day that is hardly lacking competitive events, this fifth race is perhaps most confounding of all. I am not enamored with the likely favorites. Nigel’s Destiny earned a fast speed figure last time, but did so against claiming company. This is a completely different situation, and I think he’s vulnerable at a short price. A couple of horses exit the May 12 allowance race at this level, and I’m not a great fan of either one. Wine Not earned a competitive speed figure with his fourth place effort, but I wonder about the legitimacy of that number. Almost every horse to return out of that race has significantly underperformed in their subsequent starts. Exulting lost all chance in the early going that day as his gate issues once again got the best of him. He has the talent to win this, but he’s not one I can trust. I tried to make a case for last-out maiden winners Split Verdict and Candygram. The former interests me more, as he feels like a horse that still has plenty of room for improvement, but the layoff is a concern. Ultimately, I decided to get a little wacky here. It’s nearly impossible to make a case for Harangue based on his published past performances, since he’s run slower against weaker competition. However, the fact that he’s running in this race is probably significant. This barn has been known to significantly improve horses, and a pair of DRF Formulator stats suggest that this gelding will show up with a better effort. Over the past five years, Juan Carlos Guerrero is 9 for 37 (24 percent, $3.88 ROI) off 90 to 180 day layoffs in dirt races. Furthermore, during the same 5-year period, he is 12 for 30 (40 percent, $2.50 ROI) off trainer switches in dirt routes. Perhaps most notably, Harangue’s last two workouts match up with Zanotti, who is contesting the Suburban later on the card.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,6,9
RACE 6: RUGBYMAN (#3)
I have the utmost respect for Mendelssohn, whose UAE Derby victory was truly a sight to behold. Surely he was aided by a bias that day, yet he was also utterly dominant in victory as he smashed the course and stakes records for the distance. I believe that he’s cut out to be a dirt horse, but it still remains to be seen how he stacks up against the best American three-year-olds. This Dwyer should be a useful test for him. I think he’s a top contender and I’ll certainly be using him prominently in any multi-race wagers, but I doubt that he’ll offer any value at what figures to be a short price. I believe that the primary alternative, Rugbyman, is far more reliable. This horse showed talent from the start, and has improved with added distance. His biggest issues have been a tendency to break slowly and his generally greenness. In all of his races, he’s seemed somewhat distracted, and that was certainly evident last time in the Easy Goer. After making an impressive early move to the lead while racing wide, he appeared to be more concerned with the crowd than the horses running inside of him through the lane. I believe the addition of blinkers will greatly benefit this horse. He wore them in a recent workout and appeared to be more focused as he galloped through the lane. If he is able to avoid losing contact with this field early, I believe he’s going to be a handful. Noble Indy is the other main player, but I’m concerned that the Derby and Belmont may have taken something out of him. In my opinion, Mendelssohn’s stablemate Seahenge is a horse that shouldn’t be totally dismissed. He actually ran much better than the running line suggests in the Pat Day Mile last time, and he lost all chance when he totally missed the break in Dubai. This horse has some ability, but I acknowledge it’s a tough spot.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,4,7
RACE 7: WHITMORE (#2)
Limousine Liberal has to be considered the horse to beat after finishing an admirable third in the prestigious Met Mile last month. The distance of that race is probably just past his ideal range, so he deserves plenty of credit for staying on as well as he did. While he’s known as a wet track lover, he’s done some great work over dry surfaces during the past year, and it seems that he’s just in the best form of his life now as a 6-year-old. I’m hardly against him, but I do prefer his main rival Whitmore. Some may disagree, but I believe that the True North was a fairly strong race. The three main players all showed up with solid efforts, and Whitmore just couldn’t quite catch a game Imperial Hint, who seemingly ran one of his better races. While Whitmore has never won going this 7-furlong distance, the only time he tried it was in the slop two back. This should be an ideal distance for him, given his experience going longer early in his career combined with his potent late kick. Furthermore, Belmont’s sweeping turns seemed to really agree with him last time out, as he is a horse that tends to drift out on the bends. If he shows up with a top effort, I think he gets it done this time. I also don’t want to completely dismiss Eye Luv Lulu, since Jason Servis’s horses have all been running above their prior form. I’ll throw him into the mix at what should be a square price.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,4,6
RACE 8: LA SIGNARE (#7)
This is perhaps the most competitive stakes race on the card. That said, I’m not getting too creative. I’m not trying to beat the horses coming out of the local prep race, the Wonder Again. Significant Form will attempt to turn the tables on La Signare, but I’m somewhat skeptical about the Chad Brown filly improving with added distance. Significant Form possesses plenty of early speed, but I didn’t love the way she finished off her race last time after working out a decent trip. La Signare, on the other hand, runs like she should have no trouble with an added furlong. Joel Rosario is as talented as any rider in the country at nursing along runners like this, and I think she projects to work out a great trip once again, whether she’s on the lead or sitting just off Significant Form. I don’t expect her to be a particularly enticing price, but I just think this Brian Lynch trainee is the right one to take in this spot. Others to include are Wonder Again third-place finisher Mighty Scarlett; Capla Temptress, who will attempt to prove she can get the distance; and Toinette, who also has stamina questions to answer. I’m somewhat against the Aiden O’Brien-trained Athena. While she has stepped up her game recently, O’Brien has terrible statistics with female horses in the U.S. over the past five years.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,5,9,10
Trifecta: 7 with 1,4,10 with 1,4,5,6,9,10
RACE 9: DIVERSIFY (#10)
Last year’s Belmont Stakes winner, Tapwrit, comes into this race as one of the headline attractions following a useful prep last month. I wasn’t thrilled with his effort that day, but it’s possible that it put him where he needs to be for this stretch-out in distance. I think he’s a player, but he’s unlikely to offer value. Bob Baffert brings a pair to the race. While Dr. Dorr’s recent speed figures make him a contender, I actually prefer Hoppertunity. I was impressed with this runner’s Brooklyn win last time, as he really finished off that race powerfully in the final furlong. He obviously handles this distance, and Belmont Park’s oval is perfectly suited to his style. I’m certainly using him, but the horse I want to bet is Diversify. We’ll see how fast he has to run to make the lead, but the Pace Projector is predicting that he should secure the front from Dr. Dorr early. While some may argue that Diversify’s recent form is subpar, I thought he bounced back very well in the Commentator last time after a puzzling non-effort at Charles Town. He’s never been a true miler, yet he fought off the vastly improved Pat On the Back for a hard-fought victory. He should really appreciate the added distance of this race, and it’s not as if the pace is expected to be particularly taxing. When he’s at his best, he’s capable of posting TimeformUS Speed Figures of 130 or greater, and his last workout suggests that he’s in top form.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,5,8
Trifecta: 10 with 4,8 with 2,4,5,7,8
RACE 10: HAWKISH (#8)
One of the essential decisions that you have to make when handicapping this Belmont Derby is how you assess the top two finishers in the Pennine Ridge. Analyze It had appeared to put Catholic Boy away in midstretch before his rival rallied again to pass him in the final strides. In my opinion, the unusual final furlong of this race was due in large part to the atypically swift interior fractions. Jose Ortiz was perhaps overconfident as he sent Analyze It up to engage Catholic Boy approaching the half-mile pole, thus starting an early duel between these two. They picked up the pace to such an extent that it would have been nearly impossible for them to sustain that speed for the duration of the race. Thus, things fell apart late. I’m not holding that loss against Analyze It, who is still the deserving favorite in this race. However, there are distance questions for him to answer. A more moderate pace this time could help him get the trip, as Catholic Boy is unlikely to employ the same tactics in this spot. I think Analyze It is the horse to beat, but he faces a serious challenge from the up-and-comer Hawkish. I know that this colt also has stamina questions to answer, but he certainly acts like a horse who should have no trouble stretching out. This powerful, towering son of Artie Schiller is an imposing presence, and he may be the best finisher of all when he shows up with this best, as he did last time in the Penn Mile. While many regard him as more of a closing type, this horse actually has plenty of tactical speed, as he showed two back in that allowance win, where he stalked a very honest pace. I doubt he’ll be that far behind the leaders early, and he figures to be awfully tough to hold off in the stretch. He’s the narrow selection, but this is a competitive field. You also can’t dismiss either European shipper, though Hunting Horn is obviously the more accomplished of the pair, and Catholic Boy is not without a chance to win right back.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,7
Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 4,6,7,9