PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 3 - 10 - 4
Race 2:   5 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 8 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   3 - 1/1A - 9 - 7
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 5 - 11
Race 6:   5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 7:   5 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 8:   12 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 9:   6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 11:   2 - 1 - 6 - 8

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: MOROCCO (#5) / SILBERADO (#10)
I’m most interested in Bill Mott’s pair of runners in this race. The more likely winner of the two is obviously Morocco. He’s only raced in turf routes, but Mott is 12 for 49 (24 percent, $2.68 ROI) when turning horses back on the turf at NYRA over the past five years. He’s faced solid fields in all of those turf starts and has run better than it seems on a couple of occasions. Furthermore, his dam was a confirmed sprinter, so he may actually like going shorter. At a much bigger price, I also want to throw in Silberado, who makes his turf debut. He showed brief speed on dirt last month but tired in the stretch while racing on the worst part of the track down inside. He’s a half-brother to a multiple turf winner and may move up with this surface switch.

Win: 5
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 5,10 with 3,4,5,10

RACE 2: BONITA SPRINGS (#5)
If Selenite shows up, she is probably going to win. While I have nothing against the new connections, it is very hard to claim from Brad Cox, who seems to get the most out of his horses. I think she could be an underlay, and I’m going to try to beat her with Bonita Springs. She was no match for Selenite two back, but I think this improving 3-year-old is in better form than it appears. She had real trouble last time when encountering traffic down inside at the three-sixteenths pole. Furthermore, she may have been racing too close to the pace in a race that collapsed and was dominated by outside closers.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,7,8

RACE 4: MUNCHKIN MONEY (#3)
The Mike Maker-trained entry of Desert Duchess and Lillie’s Answer should be tough to beat. The former has run extremely well in her last two starts. She’s been involved in fast paces (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) on both occasions and held on well in races that were collapsing late. That said, she’s going to face pace pressure once again today as fellow contender Romantic Music is likely to show speed from the outside. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could set things up for my top pick, Munchkin Money. I thought this filly was improving toward the end of last season. Over the past five years, new trainer Brian Lynch is 5 for 15 ($6.55 ROI) when bringing horses back from layoffs of 180 days or longer in turf races following a trainer switch.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,9

RACE 7: AWESOME SLEW (#5)
The two big names in this race are Mind Your Biscuits and Unified. Mind Your Biscuits just seems to show up on every occasion no matter the circumstances. I don’t think he has any kind of major edge on this field, but he’s the most likely winner. Unified is a bit of an enigma to me. The Pace Projector is predicting he will be racing close to a pace that will favor horses with speed. However, I didn’t like his effort in the Carter, and he’s going to be chasing Green Gratto once again. I think both of these favorites are going to be overbet, which is why I’m going with Awesome Slew. He probably is the third-most-likely winner at best, but I think he’s going to be an attractive price. His Met Mile was actually a nice effort in a race that did not set up for deep closers. He was taken extremely wide when making his run around the far turn and nearly caught Tommy Macho despite that rival getting a much better trip. I think Awesome Slew is better at seven furlongs, and he is capable of staying a bit closer to the pace.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7

RACE 10: CALLED TO THE BAR (#5) / TICONDEROGA (#2)
Fittingly, this Belmont Derby is the most interesting race on the card. I’m completely against morning-line favorite Oscar Performance, who absolutely walked on the lead in the Pennine Ridge and faces a different situation here. Out of that race, I prefer Good Samaritan and Ticonderoga, who had different kinds of trouble. Good Samaritan never had any cover in that race and traveled 58 more feet than the winner, according to Trakus. Ticonderoga saved a bit more ground racing between horses, but he had to wait for room at the top of the stretch and ran the fastest final quarter. I like Ticonderoga stretching out to 10 furlongs, so he’s the one I prefer. I’ll use both of them, but I’m taking a European as my top pick. Called To The Bar brings some strong form into this race. He was beaten by Waldgeist in his lone start as a 2-year-old, and that horse won a Group 1 later in the season before finishing second in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club at 3. Furthermore, the two horses whom Called To The Bar defeated last time in the Prix du Lys, Ice Breeze and Shakeel, returned to finish first and second in a French Group 2 in their next starts. He’s shown tactical speed in his races, so he doesn’t figure to be compromised by the pace.

Win: 2,5
Exacta Key Box: 2,5 with 1,2,3,5,6,7
Trifecta Key Box: 2,5 with 2,5 with 1,3,6,7