by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 7 - 9 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 4 - 1/1A - 2B - 6
Race 4: 5 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 5: 3 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 6: 7 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 5 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 9: 6 - 7 - 5 - 12
RACE 1: REAL MONEY (#4)
The opener is a fascinating race in which you can make a strong case for six of the seven runners entered for turf. Readyforprimetime is likely to be favored off a pair of solid efforts at Gulfstream. Both performances came around two turns for Jonathan Thomas, and now he’s cutting back to a true turf sprint for new trainer Linda Rice. I’m always a little leery of horses with turf route form trying a sprint for the first time, and this colt does not have overwhelming sprint pedigree. Rice has good numbers off trainer switches on turf, and the horse has the right running style for this race. I just don’t want to take him as the favorite given the distance concerns. My top pick is Real Money, who returned from the layoff to finish third at this level last month. While he faded at the end of the race, as he did in all of his 2-year-old starts, I thought he showed a bit more staying power. The pace was extremely fast for the distance, and Real Money did well to hang on until the last sixteenth over a tiring “good” course. That 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest in the field, and I think this colt will appreciate the slight cutback to six furlongs. He certainly looked like he was doing well in his most recent workout over the dirt last week. The other horse I would use prominently is the first-time starter Whiskey Victor. Wesley Ward has great statistics with horses making their debuts in turf sprints. This colt is by Scat Daddy and out of a half-sister to Group 2 turf winner Daddy Long Legs. Two of his workouts at Keeneland appeared to be in company with stakes winner Shang Shang Shang.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,7,8,9
RACE 3: EKHTIBAAR (#4)
It will be interesting to see how the public bets this race because you have a couple of cheaper runners in good form facing a much classier rival in poor form. Big Muddy may go off as the slight favorite. This 5-year-old got a well-deserved break after running twice in four days in mid-April. He defeated an overmatched group as the 2-5 favorite at Parx after finishing second in a cheaper race at Aqueduct. He’s now moving up to face open claimers after exhausting his conditions, and he’s run fast enough to win at this level. However, Michelle Nevin is just 9 for 69 (13 percent, $1.13 ROI) with last-out winners in dirt routes over the past five years. I prefer him to his main rival, Call Me, who finished just behind him in that April 12 claimer. I’ll use both of these horses in some capacity, but I want to take a shot with their aforementioned classy rival. Ekhtibaar once would have been a heavy favorite in this race, but he’s now coming off a series of poor efforts. Ray Handal claimed this runner from Chad Brown for $40,000 last year, and he clearly hasn’t panned out for the new connections. However, part of that may be because he was running in the wrong spots. He was in over his head in an optional claimer three back and then curiously was given a chance in some very tough turf marathons. This drastic class drop is a concern, but Handal does very well with this turf-to-dirt move (10 for 34, 29 percent, $2.45 ROI over the past five years).
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2,6
RACE 5: ISABELLE’S JOY (#3)
Teletype is probably the horse to beat as she drops down to the maiden claiming ranks. She was facing a much tougher field in her return from the layoff last time and ran on evenly to be fifth without ever really threatening. Bill Mott has good maiden dropdown statistics in general, but he is just 1 for 9 (11 percent, $0.62 ROI) with horses going from maiden claiming to maiden special weight company in turf sprints over the past five years, with only 2 hitting the board. She may win due to a lack of talent among the others, but I think there are some alternatives. One of those is Shannon’s Girl, who also drops down to the maiden claiming ranks for the first time. Unlike Bill Mott, Rudy Rodriguez has surprisingly strong numbers with this move, going 4 for 8 (50 percent, $6.06 ROI) using the same parameters as above. Shannon’s Girl got a great trip when she was second behind stakes winner Regal Glory on Oct. 6 before finishing a flat fourth in her final turf start of last season. That said, she is getting significant class relief and should be respected as she makes her second start off the layoff. However, I actually prefer another filly exiting that Oct. 6 from last fall at Belmont. Isabelle’s Joy was making her turf debut that day and she never had a chance to put forth a competitive effort. She was put in an uncomfortable position heading down the backstretch, refused to settle for Dylan Davis, and was then spun wide on the far turn over an intensely rail-biased course. She’s clearly better than that, and she now gets another chance on what appears to be her preferred surface. She’s dropping down to a realistic level in her return and trainer Phil Gleaves has been known to surprise with some big prices.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,7,8
RACE 6: SYCAMORE LANE (#7)
Races don’t get much more complicated than this. Making the morning line for such an event is nearly impossible and handicapping it is not much easier. My best guess is that Patriot Drive winds up as the favorite, since he is at least coming in off a win, albeit on dirt. He was the surprising favorite in that off-the-turf event where he barely got the job done over Bitumen. He has prior turf form that would make him a player here, and that last effort on dirt suggests that he may be in very good form right now for Danny Gargan. I’m using him, but there are many ways to go in this spot. Both Tom Morley horses are somewhat interesting, though I prefer Zinger. This 5-year-old has not gotten many opportunities to race on turf during the past year, but he’s performed well when given the chance. He outran his 100-1 odds to be a close 6th against a much tougher optional claiming field last December and then he ran on well for third at a more appropriate level in March. If he repeats either of those performances, he has a big chance to win this. I could also make a case for bigger prices like Catch a Cab and Shamcat, but I’ve ended up going in a different direction. My top pick is Sycamore Lane. This 8-year-old gelding disappointed in his prior start at Aqueduct, finishing a dull 6th after a decent trip. He was perhaps a little too far back in the early going, but he never showed the kind of acceleration that he’s been capable of producing in the past. Yet some things are different now. Bill Mott has had him back in New York for two months, he’s adding blinkers, and he gets a rider switch to leading jockey Jose Lezcano. Yet, more importantly, he appears to be working very well coming into this race. Having watched this horse over the past few seasons, I would argue that he is a runner who touts himself in his workouts. He did so during each of the last two summers at Saratoga before running well up there, and he appears to be doing so now. Sycamore Lane’s workout times this winter at Payson Park were dull, but now he’s coming into this race off a series of bullet drills, notably accomplished on some very busy mornings on the training track. I typically wouldn’t ignore a horse’s poor recent form without an apparent excuse, but I get the feeling that this gelding is heading in the right direction once again. At anything close to his best, he’s certainly good enough to take down this field.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,8,9
Trifecta: 7 with 3,8 with 1,2,3,8,9,10
RACE 7: STILL KRZ (#5)
The scratch of Happy Farm leaves Reed Kan as a possible favorite. This horse was alarmingly dead on the board prior to his last start, and he showed none of his typical early speed before backing up. Now he returns at a lower class level with just one workout showing in the past month. I’m wary of this guy, and felt that Happy Farm was a far more trustworthy option at a short price. My top pick is Still Krz. This 7-year-old has not been in the best form recently, but I think he started to show some signs of life last time in his first start off the claim for Gary Gullo. The chart comment notes that he “beat the gate,” but it certainly did not help him. He actually hesitated after taking a stutter-step, and was off a length slowly. He then had to rush up to take the lead through honest fractions before fading. Seven furlongs has always been a stretch for him, and he should appreciate the cutback to six. He showed that he still possesses early speed last time, and he’s faster than these horses early if Eric Cancel allows him to run freely. Still Krz fits at this class level and is good enough to beat this field if his last race is indeed the beginning of a form reversal.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,6
RACE 8: CLINT MAROON (#5)
Both of Chad Brown’s runners in this Grade 3 Pennine Ridge are making their stakes debuts, and the one who figures to attract the most support is Value Proposition. This British-bred son of Dansili has made only one start, but it was a special performance. He launched a sweeping move from far back to easily take over at the top of the stretch and fended off a serious challenge before drawing off late. He was even somewhat green in the lane, ducking down to the rail late while continuing to widen his advantage. He earned a speed figure that suggests he can make this transition into graded stakes company, but he’s facing a pretty salty group in just his second career start. I actually prefer Brown’s other colt, Demarchelier. He hasn’t run as fast or won as stylishly as his stablemate, but I like the way this grinding son of Dubawi finishes off his races. I get the sense that we haven’t seen the best of him yet, and he figures to be the biggest price of the main contenders. Demarchelier appears to be working particularly well ahead of this race, though he is unproven over less-than-firm ground. I’m using both of these runners, but I think Todd Pletcher’s entrants are just as appealing. Social Paranoia is the classier of the two, coming off a solid third-place finish in the Grade 2 American Turf. He signaled that he had returned as an improved 3-year-old with that impressive maiden score two back, and he backed up that performance behind Digital Age last time. However, now he must stretch out to 1 1/8 miles and I'm somewhat concerned about him getting the distance. Social Paranoia possesses good tactical speed, but I would assume that he will allow his stablemate Clint Maroon to set the pace. Clint Maroon is my top pick. I don’t think this son of Oasis Dream will have any problem handling the distance given his strong finishing ability. He had everything his own way up front in the Woodhaven last time, but he also leveled off and finished up the race with a ton of power. This grey gelding doesn’t need the lead, but he’s awfully difficult to run down when he’s allowed to set the pace. A little rain Thursday should have softened the turf courses a bit, and he loves some give in the ground. If he turns into the stretch with an advantage, I believe they will be hard-pressed to run him down.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,7
Trifecta: 5 with 1,3 with 1,3,4,7
Trifecta: 3 with 5 with 1,4,7
RACE 9: MATZO BELLA (#6)
The card concludes with another highly competitive affair. Something Joyful is the logical favorite as she returns from the layoff. Jeremiah Englehart does very well with returnees in turf sprints, and she ran fast enough to win at this level in that December race. She did get a perfect trip that day, but her versatile running style tends to give her riders plenty of options. I’m using her prominently, but there are some others to consider at better prices. I thought Sadie Lady ran fairly well in her turf debut last time. Making her first start as a 3-year-old, she made a wide move into contention on the far turn and held on decently to be fourth. She figures to benefit from that start and would be a major player here with minor improvement. Andarta could lead this group early as she returns for Tom Albertrani. She was impressive in victory at Saratoga last summer, but the speed figure she earned is somewhat dubious, and I’m skeptical that she can repeat it. The opposite is true about Matzo Bella’s maiden victory at Gulfstream. She only earned a 61 Beyer and an 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but a number of horses have come back out of that race to run significantly faster in their subsequent starts. Runner-up Bye Bye Nicky is a perfect example, as she came back to run an 84 Beyer and a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her next race. Overall, the 8 horses other than Matzo Bella to run back out of that race have earned Beyers that are 26 points faster on average next time out. This filly may have shown much greater improvement off the claim than is apparent. It’s rare to get Jason Servis at a square price in a turf sprint, but I could see this filly getting somewhat lost in the shuffle.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 5,7,8,10,12