by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 1A - 6 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 7 - 9 - 8
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 5: 2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 6: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 8 - 9 - 2 - 3
Race 8: 6 - 2 - 10 - 4
Race 9: 5 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 10: 9 - 2 - 13 - 5
RACE 2: ARCHUMYBABY (#5)
The Drawing Away Stables entry figures to be favored in this spot. The stronger half of the pair appears to be Fair Regis, who has been a presence at or around this level for the past eight months. Save an ambitious placement against stakes company last fall and a poor effort Feb. 9 when compromised by a rail bias, she's run well in almost all of her recent starts. She could not catch the returning Sue's Fortune last time, but that filly flattered the effort when she returned to finish a strong second in the Jersey Girl last weekend. She has tactical speed and is drawn well outside of her main pace rivals. My top pick is Archumybaby. This mare exploded with a surprising win in the Videogenic back in March, earning a career-best 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Her subsequent performances don’t quite measure up to that standard, but she’s had excuses. She got the wrong trip April 19 as she was repeatedly shuffled back on the turn, and then she was forced to chase wide against a strong rail bias on May 18. She gets a positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz in her second start off the claim for Linda Rice. She has the tactical speed to sit closer to the pace this time and figures to be a square price. I would also include the two Charlton Baker-trained runners, Forever Changed and Our Super Nova. The former is harder to trust as she returns from a lengthy layoff, but she showed some potential as a 2-year-old and has a right to step forward. Our Super Nova benefited from a fast early pace last time when she closed for second behind Carrera Cat, but she's clearly in solid form right now.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1,6 with ALL
RACE 4: JAVELIN (#6)
Fox Red is the horse to beat, especially at this abbreviated 5 1/2 furlong distance. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be the controlling speed in a situation that is likely to favor the front-runner. He looks formidable based on his effort two back, but he benefited from riding a gold rail that day and did not run nearly as well as the winner Loverboy Lou. He encountered another strong rail bias last time on May 18 and he was somewhat against the track while Missle Bomb dominated. That said, I didn’t think he ran that well and I’m just not convinced that he’s quite as good as he was when he was earning his best speed figures in late 2018. Therefore, I want to take a shot against him with Javelin. This horse has failed for cheaper claiming tags in recent starts, but he’s run better than it seems. He was forced to chase wide against rail biases in each of those last two starts while winner Candy Promises benefited from the track profile on each occasion. He handles a variety of sprint distances, so I’m not overly concerned about this slight turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs. Furthermore, he’s been claimed by Antonio Arriaga, who has had some success in recent weeks, and he gets a positive rider switch to Manny Franco for this race.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5
RACE 6: PASSPORTTOVICTORY (#5)
The enigma in this race is Citizen Matzo, whose last turf effort makes her the fastest horse in this field. She earned a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure, a number that towers over this field. Yet that was on turf, and now she’s entered for dirt. Trainer Roy Lerman is enjoying an exceptional year, compiling a record of 17-7-5-3 while getting almost all of his horses to improve their form. Citizen Matzo is just another example of that, so perhaps she can pull off another victory despite this surface switch. I think she’s dangerous, but I’m still somewhat skeptical. I’m trying to beat her with the other logical player, Passporttovictory. It may appear as if this mare has gone off form in recent starts, but I think there’s more going on than that. She just does not care for wet tracks, and her distaste for those surfaces appears to have grown over the past few months. The last two times she participated in races on fast tracks, she actually ran quite well. She finished a strong second to Starlite Mission over dry going last December and then ran deceptively well to be third in a similar spot April 5. She was shuffled back on the turn that day and was seemingly out of contention at the quarter pole before launching a strong late rally in a race that was dominated on the front end. If she runs back to either of those efforts, I think she’s the most likely winner of this race. She’s not going to be a huge price, but I just think she makes the most sense.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1,3 with 1,2,3,4,6
RACE 7: MORRISON (#8)
I suppose Prognostication will go off as the favorite in this spot due to his affinity for winning races and the fact that he’s going out for leading trainer Chad Brown. He’s certainly run speed figures that put him in the mix, and this barn knows how to have horses ready off extended layoffs. That said, he’s a horse who was coming out of cheaper races last year and I feel that he was opportunistic while catching some vulnerable rivals at the right time. For instance, the Clyde’s Image who beat him by a nose last time had not yet developed into the horse that will be contesting the Grade 3 Poker on Sunday. I’m using this favorite, but I prefer others at slightly better prices. Hoboe makes plenty of sense in his second start off the layoff. He nearly ran down the well-regarded Chad Brown colt Unleveraged last time in a pretty fast race for the level. He doesn’t mind a little give in the ground so he figures to be unaffected by the rain that arrived on Thursday. In my opinion, you can make the argument that he should actually be the favorite in this spot. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Morrison. Trainer Joe Sharp has excellent numbers off layoffs with his turf sprinters, but he also does fairly well with his turf routers. Morrison struggled with consistency as a 3-year-old, but he showed hints of potential on occasion and he strikes me as one that could take a step forward now that he’s a year older. He’s never won going this flat mile distance, but he’s arguably run some of his best races going this far and I’m convinced that this is his ideal trip. He’s drawn well outside of the only other speed Dream Friend, so he should be able to either stalk that rival or go on and control the pace.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,9
Trifecta: 8 with 2,9 with 1,2,3,9
RACE 9: MIDNIGHT DISGUISE (#5)
This Dancin Renee goes through the half-siblings Holiday Disguise and Midnight Disguise. The older sister figures to go off as the favorite as she moves back down in class after trying Grade 3 company in her last two starts. She has earned speed figures that arguably make her the horse to beat, but her current form is somewhat dubious. She finished last in the Vagrancy last time, but she was taken out of her game to chase the pace and actually held on well until the eighth pole. If she shows up with a similar effort here, she is the most likely winner. I just think it’s hard to completely trust her as the favorite. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with Midnight Disguise. While she’s generally considered to be more of a routing type, she has won both of her prior sprint attempts. One of those was achieved in a slow final time in her second career start, but she actually ran very well to win the seven-furlong Bouwerie last year as a 3-year-old. It took her a few starts to get back to that form in 2019, but she had excuses in a couple of those poor efforts. She finally put in a competitive effort last time, showing uncharacteristic early interest as she made an early move into second on the far turn before chasing the winner home. She was never going to reel in the impressive winner, Kathryn the Wise, but she did well to finish more than three lengths clear of the rest of that field. The turnback to six furlongs is obviously a question mark, but I’ll take my chances on a filly who is clearly heading in the right direction.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 5 with 2,6 with ALL