by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 2 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 5 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 5 - 2 - 3 - 9
Race 6: 6 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 7: 1 - 2 - 10 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 9: 2 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 10: 8 - 9 - 7 - 11
RACE 2: LORD OF LOVE (#5)
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, which will benefit Dr. Shane and Changewilldoyagood. The latter is the likely pacesetter, but he may be slightly better going a bit farther than this, whereas Dr. Shane may prefer shorter distances. Banana Thief seems like a logical option. He always shows up with a solid effort, and he probably should have won last time after getting caught in traffic through the lane. However, that’s also the problem with him. He’s difficult to ride and has squandered opportunities to win on many occasions. I’m using him, but I’m taking a shot against all of these with the class-dropping Lord of Love. I know that this gelding has seen better days, but this drop in class is exactly what he needs. He was actually competitive against tougher open foes for much of last year, but he just isn’t quite quick enough to beat those horses anymore. His lackluster return at Aqueduct is somewhat of a concern, but he’s always done a bit better at Belmont.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,8
RACE 4: CHUBBY STAR (#5)
Dolce Lili is probably the horse to beat after she encountered minor traffic trouble in upper stretch last time. I don’t think she was ever beating Thais, but she should have been second that day. She’s in good form, and her tactical speed makes her dangerous. The wild card is Tizzelle, who refused to put forth an effort in the Mount Vernon last time. Perhaps the “good” turf conditions didn’t suit her, and it’s probably a positive sign that she’s running back in just 19 days. However, there are questions to be answered. I’ll use her, but I prefer Chubby Star, who makes her second start off the layoff. Her Laurel return was decent, if slightly disappointing, but she figures to move forward off that effort. This filly ran well in some tough spots last year despite some questionable trips. She put in a very strong effort to be fourth in the Riskaverse at Saratoga after going wide around both turns, and she got a misguided, aggressive ride two back in the Commonwealth Oaks. This filly is better when she can sit and make one run, and Jose Ortiz figures to use those tactics here. Trainer Horacio DePaz brings nothing but live runners to the NYRA circuit.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7
RACE 7: OUR INDEPENDENCE (#1)
The two runners likely to take the most money in this spot are Our Independence and Dancetrack. I really like one of them, and I’m mildly against the other. Gary Gullo generally does an excellent job, but his statistics off the claim on the turf are subpar. Dancetrack has run the fastest races overall, but he got an absolutely perfect setup against a suspect field last time. If you want a horse out of that race, I think you can make a better case for Excluded at a big price. At least he made an early move into that fast pace that collapsed and has some back races that give him a shot here. I’ll use both, but the short-priced runner that I think you want is Our Independence. This horse is getting subtle but significant class relief after facing top turf sprinter Imprimis in his last two starts. Furthermore, he did not get ideal trips in either of those races. Luis Saez was a little too eager two back, and twice had to steady when trying to rush him through a spot on the far turn. Then last time he got shuffled back in the first furlong after breaking decently. This horse has run plenty of races that would make him awfully tough here, and I think he is the most likely winner.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,7,8,10
Trifecta: 1 with 2,7,10 with 2,7,8,10,12
RACE 8: MAX VELOCITY (#5)
This is another incredibly difficult race. I suppose that Catch a Cab may go favored as he shoots for his fourth consecutive win at this meet. However, you wanted to have him last time when got a fantastic pace setup and an awesome ride from Jose Ortiz. The waters get much deeper today. I’ll still use him since he’s in great form, but others should offer better value. Kulin Rock is a difficult horse to assess. He showed a ton of promise in his first few starts, but he’s had trouble getting it done recently. He’s a horse with a strong late move, but it’s been difficult for his riders to time that late run correctly. His last race did come against a legitimate field, but it was still pretty poor. If he bounces back, he has a great shot, but I find him to be somewhat untrustworthy. I’m going in a completely different direction and trying the new face, Max Velocity. The owners, e Five Racing, have had great success since getting into the game, and this is the first horse that I can recall them giving to Robert Falcone, Jr. I think this barn does an excellent job with mostly cheap horses and doesn’t yet get the respect that it deserves. Max Velocity was privately purchased out of an all-weather race at Dundalk in which he rightfully got put up for the win after getting herded in the final quarter mile. The top two finished 9 lengths ahead of the other competitors that day, and the Timeform foreign comments suggest that he can improve out of that effort. This horse has a strong turf pedigree, as a half-brother to a Grade 2-winning turf miler, so I’m optimistic about the surface switch.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,11
RACE 9: COZZY SPRING (#2)
At first glance, Holiday Disguise appears to outclass this group. She’s a graded stakes winner dropping back in against New York-breds. However, despite all of her accomplishments, her speed figures do not indicate that she is a standout in this race. Others have shown themselves to be capable of running nearly as fast. Furthermore, she’s really best at seven furlongs, and this race may be a bit too short for her. I’m using her prominently, but I think she’s going to be an underlay. While a few of these fillies have speed, none is as fast in the early going as Cozzy Spring. While she’s raced primarily against weaker company, she has nevertheless run a series of TimeformUS Speed Figures that make her very competitive with Holiday Disguise. Her return last time is actually better than it seems since Joel Rosario was too concerned with rating her along on the lead, thus letting others into the race by the time they got to the quarter pole. The winner got the jump on her, but Cozzy Spring battled back gamely all the way to the finish. This filly is best when her rider lets her roll, and that’s exactly what Dylan Davis would do last year. Six furlongs is the perfect distance, and she figures to offer some value. I’ll also use her stablemate Absatootly, who is capable at her best but is difficult to pin down.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,7
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 3,7
RACE 10: SOUP BABY (#8)
With the scratch of likely winner Perfectexpectation, this becomes a race where I think you want to get a bit more creative. Ferrad's Party inherits the favorite's role as he drops in for a tag after a series of maiden special weight attempts. He did get a silly ride last time when Joel Rosario decided to take him far off the early pace, but he still didn't run particularly well. It's unclear if he is still the same horse that was competing in late 2017, and I'm not willing to support him at a short price. There are a couple of interesting first time turfers. Moses Supposes is the more logical of the two. His dam won on turf and he is a half-brother to a turf winner. His debut actually wasn't that bad, as he was racing in an uncomfortable spot in behind horses for much of his trip. If he handles the surface switch, he's a major player. I'll use him, but the horse that interests me most is Soup Baby. This gelding has real turf pedigree, since his dam was a 4-time winner on that surface. This gelding briefly raced with the main pack of runners in his debut before reacting badly to kickback and stopping. He's been given plenty of time off since that effort, and one gets the feeling that the connections may have been waiting for turf season to begin. Jeremiah Englehart has been having a strong meet, and this one is sure to go off at a decent price.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 7,9,11