PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 4:   3 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 5:   1 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 6:   4 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 7:   1 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 9:   4 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 10:   12 - 8 - 7 - 4

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

Beer Run (#3) is an obviously player here if he can improve on his debut effort, where he chased the pace and settled for second behind an impressive Brad Cox winner. This robust son of City of Light definitely has some size to him, and seemed like one that might have needed to gain some fitness from that start. He’s certainly bred to be quick, since his second dam is the Hall of Fame sprinter Xtra Heat. Yet I think there are some others to consider at bigger prices. Fast Boat to Skye (#4) probably won’t go favored due to the connections, but he ran pretty well in his lone prior turf start going a mile. The distance was probably too far for him, as he seemed to stride over the surface freely, but was unable to see out the trip. He obviously can sprint, and should play out as the main speed. My top pick is another runner who I think will appreciate sprinting on turf. Flat Top Box (#6) was entered for grass when he made his debut in early May, and stayed in for some experience when that race was rained off the grass. He broke slowly and just ran along at the back of the pack that day without threatening. Yet he looks and moves like more of a turf horse with that high knee action. He also appears to have some bulk and muscle to him so he should appreciate this 6-furlong distance on grass. Jorge Abreu is 5 for 19 (26%, $3.18 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf sprints over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#6 FLAT TOP BOX, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 2

I want to play against short prices like Bomb Squad (#5) and Photon (#7). The former will take money based on her last result at this level, but she got a great trip that day and really didn’t have any excuse not to get to the winner late. Photon has some competitive speed figures, and exits a decent performance at this level, but she’s had her fair share of chances without success. I’m most interested in others. Starts Now (#2) makes sense off her narrow loss last time, and I don’t want to be too hard on her since she might have run into a pretty good foe that day. I’ll be interested to see who is a bigger price between she and The Splendid One (#1), who interests me a little more. She finished behind Bomb Squad in that June 1 affair, but I thought she had the tougher trip, as she was forced off the inside on the backstretch and then had to pause before launching a wide rally into the lane. A repeat of that effort gives her a strong chance. My top pick is Berning Honor (#3), who will likely be the best price of the main players. Her two turf efforts last season only earned modest speed figures, and she got favorable ground-saving trips on those occasions. Yet she finished with some interest to hit the board, at least showing turf potential. She confirmed that dirt wasn’t for her over the winter, and seemed to really appreciate getting back on the grass last month. Breaking from the far outside post in a 12-horse field, she had no cover and ended up making a premature move into a fast pace. She essentially broke the race open at the quarter pole, helping the pace to collapse. Now she’s second off a layoff and will be dangerous here if she can get a more patient trip from Katie Davis.

Fair Value:
#3 BERNING HONOR, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4

A few of these competed in the Apr. 27 race at this level where Yarrow (#1) was second. It’s a good sign that he showed a new dimension, surprisingly setting the pace that day. Yet he ultimately got a perfect trip and couldn’t get the job done, so I would rather take some of those who finished behind him. The horse I want most out of that race is Bar Fourteen (#3), who was ridden by Heman Harkie on that occasion and just didn’t get the best trip. He broke slowly and was at the back of the pack early behind a moderate pace. He then had to swing wide in upper stretch to make his run and was the only horse making up significant ground in the late stages to finish third. He didn’t even run that badly on dirt last time, and also put in a good effort in his last turf race going to back to the fall of 2022. This gelding is usually underrated for low-profile connections but appears to fit this race very well. I could also use Ghost Giant (#4) out of that Apr. 27 affair. He didn’t do as much running in the stretch as Bar Fourteen, so I’m concerned that he’s lost a step at the age of 8. Yet he was put in a difficult position chasing the pace last time going a mile, which may be a little far for him. This slight cutback is a benefit. I also considered horses like Phantom Smoke (#6) and Ruse (#7), but the former’s stamina could be pushed to the limit going 7 furlongs, and the latter feels like he’s getting in a prep for something going longer.

Fair Value:
#3 BAR FOURTEEN, at 4-1 or greater
#4 GHOST GIANT, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

There seems to be no limit to the amount of money that horses ridden by Irad Ortiz will attract these days, so I can only imagine that Exact Estimate (#7) will be a very short price. He’s trained by Chad Brown and looks like the one to beat anyway, so there’s every reason to believe he will be overbet in this spot. He’s shown some talent in his two prior turf attempts, but I thought he was supposed to get the job done last time. He did get away slowly, but he had his chance in the stretch and never looked like he was going by the winner. Al’s Rocket (#2) could be his main rival off his encouraging runner-up effort last time. I thought he was conservatively ridden early and just left with too much ground to make up, as he only was asked for his best once the winner had snuck away from the field. He's a real threat to the favorite if he can build on that effort second off the layoff. Emboite (#3) also merits some consideration given his early speed, as there doesn’t appear to be much that pace signed on. What is perhaps most interesting about him is that he’s finally getting Lasix for the first time after Mike Maker and the connections elected not to use Lasix on him for his entire time in the barn. My top pick is Danzigwiththestars (#1). He lacks the upside of some others, but he’s run plenty of races that put him in the mix, and I think he might get somewhat overlooked off his poor result last time. Yet it was always going to be a difficult ask for him to be successful going 11 furlongs coming off a layoff. He’s a horse who generally needs a start coming back off a break, and he also doesn’t want to go that far even on his best day. Now he’s cutting back to an appropriate distance, and he’s drawn perfectly inside.

Fair Value:
#1 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

There's no doubt that Goodnight Olive (#1) was unlucky in the Derby City Distaff, boxed in behind the leaders for nearly the entire stretch drive. That ride won’t go on Irad Ortiz's highlight reel, but the mare also did him no favors by lugging in through the stretch. She showed that same tendency in her prior start at Keeneland, so it has to be a mild concern moving forward. She was the leader of the division going into that last race and had a valid excuse, so she’s the one to beat once again. Yet we did see some vulnerability and it’s not as if this race came up a softer spot. Wicked Halo (#3) is the one that kept Goodnight Olive locked in last time, and perhaps she would have finished behind her if not for that race riding. However, this filly has been in great form since the middle of last year and continues to improve her speed figures. It shouldn’t be overlooked that she got a 3-wide trip in that last race, so it’s not so clear cut that she ran worse than the favorite, and even her Breeders’ Cup loss is better than it appears. Two other main players exit the Vagrancy at Belmont. Caramel Swirl (#5) was an impressive winner that day, but she had the benefit of being able to make a clear, outside run. She’s drawn well outside again, but there isn’t much pace signed on here and she wasn’t quite good enough to beat Goodnight Olive when they met last summer. She’s also coming back in 5 weeks after needing much more time than that between all of her other recent starts. My top pick is the horse who was second in the Vagrancy, Dr B (#4). She was also no match for Goodnight Olive at Saratoga last summer, but she’s really progressed since then. She took her game to the next level at Aqueduct last fall when nearly winning the Pumpkin Pie before dominating the Go For Ward in the slop. Perhaps the added distance benefited her, but this 7 furlongs should be well within her wheelhouse. The trip just didn’t work out last time, as she got shuffled back to last on the far turn before having to rally around the field. All things considered, it was a solid performance, and she can win this if returning to form second off the layoff.

Fair Value:
#4 DR B, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 10

I don’t want to settle for favorites in this wide open finale where it’s hard to find too many confirmed turf sprinters with solid recent form. I suppose Quick Power Nap (#6) will go favored, since she’s ridden by Irad Ortiz and earned a competitive speed figure when she broke her maiden at Saratoga last summer. She’s been rained off the turf three times since then, so she’s had valid excuses. However, she’s in a different barn so it’s no guarantee she will suddenly get back to her best form. I have a little more trust in Smokin’ Hot Kitty (#8), who seems like a candidate to appreciate the turnback first off the claim for Horacio De Paz. Yet she needs some pace ahead of her. I could also use Fuligni (#7), who showed significant improvement over her surrounding dirt form when she tried turf last year. She's since improved overall and may now be getting back on her preferred surface. I want to get a little more creative with a horse who might get overlooked. Candy Monet (#12) got a ridiculous trip in her last turf start in August at Saratoga. According to the now defunct Trakus, Candy Monet covered 90 more feet than the winner of that race due to significant ground loss, as she traveled extremely wide around both turns. She had shown turf sprint ability in her prior start, when she was first off the claim for this barn. Obviously something went awry for her to miss so much time, and she’s a bit of a wild card returning from the layoff. More than anything, I’m interested to see how she runs here, but I have to put a few bucks on her given that last trip at what figures to be a big price.

Fair Value:
#12 CANDY MONET, at 10-1 or greater