by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 6 - 8 - 7
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 8 - 12 - 2
Race 5: 6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 6: 9 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 7: 6 - 11 - 8 - 1
Race 8: 2 - 7 - 8 - 3
Race 9: 4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 10: 6 - 7 - 10 - 5
RACE 1: TRINNI NINJA (#1)
My strongest opinion in this race is that you’re supposed to play against Aly’s All Out. This horse ran a competitive speed figure in her debut – arguably a number high enough that she’s the horse to beat. However, that was an incredibly weak field, even for a low-level maiden claimer. The winner of that race came back to run terribly against tougher, and others have also come back to run much slower in subsequent starts. I think her main rival Trinni Ninja is the one that you really want. She’s been facing significantly tougher horses in all of her recent starts and is dropping in for a maiden claiming tag for the first time. There’s an argument that she should be the favorite on merit despite the low-percentage connections. Furthermore, the presence of her stablemate Dark Tricks should enhance her chances, as that one should apply significant pressure to Aly’s All Out in the early going.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6,8
RACE 4: CATCH A CAB (#7)
This is a wide-open race, as about six horses have a solid chance to win. The horse to beat is probably Wicked Freud off the claim by Brad Cox. This gray gelding has run plenty of competitive races at this level, and the one-turn-mile distance suits him perfectly. If he improves at all for the new barn, he will be very tough. A few runners exit race 7 on May 12. There’s little doubt that Changewilldoyagood ran the best race that day. He’s typically dangerous when left alone up front, and he figures to be the controlling speed once again. However, he can be inconsistent, so I don’t fully trust him to repeat that last effort. Converge is a wild card off the trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez, though the barn does not have strong numbers off layoffs on turf. I’ll use all of these, but I’m going to try to beat these seasoned veterans with the quickly improving Catch a Cab. There were reasons to be skeptical of this horse when he returned to turf this spring, but he has put forth two solid efforts at this meet. While he wasn’t beating any superstars last time, he finished very strongly to win, running a final quarter-mile that was 0.71 seconds faster than the second-quickest finisher, according to Trakus. In retrospect, this horse has always had some ability, but layoffs and troubled trips have prevented him from showing it. It seems that the Mark Casse barn finally has him sorted out, and I think he’s ready to continue his ascent.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,6,8,9,12
RACE 10: REFLECTED STAR (#6)
Blarp and Performance Bonus figure to vie for favoritism. The former has obviously put forth plenty of efforts that would beat this field, but he’s returning from a lengthy layoff for a barn that isn’t necessarily known for having them ready to fire fresh on turf. Performance Bonus’s first start off the claim wasn’t exactly inspiring, but Jason Servis has excellent statistics second off the claim in these situations. This horse also has back races that would make him formidable in this spot. One of the wild cards in this race is California Swing, who has run well on turf in the past, but barely lifted a hoof in his only grass start for Mike Maker. I’ll use all of them, but the horse I want to bet at a slightly better price is Reflected Star. This gelding is in better form than it seems. After easily winning against cheaper March 10, he was hindered by a wide trip April 7 and then found himself chasing home a more talented group of rivals last time on April 28. Bill Mott has put him through a couple of encouraging drills up at Saratoga in recent weeks, and he appears to finally be placed at an ideal class level.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 5,7,10