by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 1A - 5 - 8
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 9 - 7
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 5: 6 - 8 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 7: 10 - 1 - 4 - 9
Race 8: 7 - 5 - 9 - 2
Race 9: 4 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 10: 11 - 6 - 12 - 5
RACE 2: SWICK (#6)
Sayyaaf ran to his turf-oriented pedigree when switched to grass last time over today’s course and distance. This Chad Brown-trained colt did well to come on again in the final furlong after contesting a fast early pace. He is obviously the horse to beat, but these connections tend to get overbet and he’s part of an entry, so there’s a high likelihood that he will be an underlay. I believe there are some viable alternatives. Dillon Rocks steps back up in class after hanging on for second at the $75,000 maiden claiming level last time. The switch to turf has done wonders for him, as he even ran quite well three back when 4th behind the talented Unleveraged. This horse showed a preference for sprint distances on the dirt, so today’s slight turnback to 7 furlongs on grass should be to his liking. He’s run some competitive speed figures already, and he figures to be a square price due to the presence of the favored entry. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is first time turfer Swick. This horse did not run that badly in his debut on June 7 when pitted against a very salty field for the level. He was riding a good rail for most of the way, but he nevertheless stayed on well throughout. His sire Big Drama connects with 12% of his turf starters. While this dam was off the board in all 3 turf attempts, his second dam achieved two victories on turf including a victory in the Grade 3 Regret. John Terranova has had success in these maiden turf sprints and this gelding seems to have some ability.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 1,5,6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 7,8
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 5,7,8
RACE 7: XANTHIQUE (#10)
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Xanthique, if this race remains on the grass. She took to the new surface with great enthusiasm last time, traveling strongly throughout before bursting clear of the pack in the final quarter mile, easily running right past the heavily-favored Balon Rose en route to an easy score. The 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure that was assigned for that performance is easily the best number in the field. This was a particularly astute claim by Tom Morley, because now he can run this filly back in a starter allowance race instead of moving into a tougher N1X allowance due to the fact that she ran for a tag earlier in her career. There has been plenty of rain in the New York area over the past several days, and Xanthique loved a turf course with some give to it last time. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she will be right up with the leaders in the early going in a pace scenario that is predicted to favor the front-runners. Xanthique just appears to be a more talented filly than her main rivals, which include horses like Sun Summers and The Nine O. Sun Summers appears to be heading in the right direction after finishing third against a decent allowance field at Monmouth last time, but her trainer Jane Cibelli does not have a strong record on the NYRA circuit. The Nine O ran well at this level last time, but she was not facing a rival of Xanthique’s quality that day. I could throw Tizaprincessa in underneath at a price, since she has a right to move forward off her recent return at Monmouth.
Win: 10
Exacta: 10 with 1,4,9
RACE 8: THE BIG LEBANSE (#7)
Elios Milos is the horse to beat as he returns from an extended layoff. This colt showed plenty of talent when he was unveiled last summer, launching a wide rally from far back to win in impressive style. However, he disappointed in his lone subsequent start when he was too close to the pace stalking 3-wide over a moderately rail-biased surface. He’s dangerous if he can get back to top form, but he has been a vet scratch on 3 occasions since that last effort. Smokin Platinum seems like his main rival, but this talented 4-year-old has had trouble breaking from the gate ever since he returned from the layoff in 2018. He leaves the stalls with the field but then can’t accelerate at the same rate over the first few jumps, putting him at a disadvantage. He’s dangerous if he works out the right trip, but he often has to settle for a minor award. I can’t fully trust either of these short-priced options, so I want to go in a different direction. My top pick is The Big Lebanese. I think this horse has been subtly improving in his recent starts, but he never got a fair chance to show what he can do at this level last time when stretched out to a mile. He doesn’t want any part of a route distance, so he was up against it going a mile. Furthermore, June 6 was the first card on Belmont Stakes week, and we already observed the beginnings of a minor rail bias that day, as winner Shamrock Kid rode the inside path to an impressive victory. The Big Lebanese had to chase 3- to 4-wide throughout, and actually stayed on well to be 5th after briefly steadying in mid-stretch. Some speed is likely to scratch out of this field, but he shouldn’t be coming from that far out of it with Kendrick Carmouche aboard.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,5,9
RACE 9: NOVA SOL (#4)
Chad Brown holds a very strong hand in this race, sending out 3 of the 5 runners that are likely to participate. I suppose the horse to beat is Blowout, who exits a troubled trip in the Memories of Silver last time out. The early pace of that race was quite slow for the distance, and Blowout was difficult to handle in the early stages. Just as Javier Castellano appeared to get her under control heading onto the backstretch, things tightened up and she was forced to clip heels with the runner ahead of her. Blowout did well to recover and get back into the race, but she then encountered further trouble in the lane while unable to find running room until eventual winner Feel Glorious had gotten the jump on her. I think she’ll be dangerous with a clean trip, but I also fear that she’s going to be overbet off that trouble. I believe that another Brown runner, Nova Sol, may simply be a better horse. This filly showed some talent in France last year, closing to be third in the Group 3 Prix de Reservoirs to Cala Tarida, who has since gone on to run well in a pair of Group 1 events this season. Nova Sol made her U.S. debut in the Hilltop on Preakness week, and I thought she made a nice run from far back to get up for second behind her highly-regarded stablemate Dogtag. She was never a serious threat to win that race, but she did well to make up as much ground as she did after a troubled start. I think she’s likely to move forward with that effort under her belt, and I trust her to handle what is likely to be a yielding turf course more than her two stablemates. The third Brown entrant, Seek and Destroy, is far from impossible. She’s likely to play out as the controlling speed, but she still has to validate her surprising return victory in the Soaring Softly last time. She got a decent trip that day in a spot where some others had trouble and she’s still a question mark over a yielding turf course.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,6 with ALL