by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 2 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 9 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 6: 1 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 7: 6 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 8 - 10 - 6
Race 9: 1A - 8 - 4 - 10
Race 10: 8 - 12 - 5 - 6
RACE 2: DARK ENERGY (#2)
There’s a lot going on in this competitive race. Heart In Hand may have run the best last race as he made the first move into an honest pace at this level last time. He clearly improved off the trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez, but he may be finding himself in a slightly tougher spot this time. Herecomesyourman appears to be the logical other horse to use. He’s simply been facing tougher in his last two starts against starter allowance company. Last time, he got outrun when Harlan’s Hunch opened up on the field around the far turn and just appeared to get lost while wide late. His prior efforts are certainly good enough. I’m using both, but the horse that I’m picking at a bit of a price is Dark Energy. This horse can be somewhat untrustworthy, but he has actually been facing some decent fields in California. He got some overly aggressive rides when he returned from a layoff last fall, but since then he’s responded well to closing tactics. He was overmatched against tougher company two back and then last time he was put in the difficult position of chasing a run-off leader. He’s now placed at the right class level in his New York debut for Chad Brown’s former assistant.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6,7
RACE 3: MR. FIXIT (#6)
Make the Rules has to be considered the horse to beat off his impressive debut. He was facing a much weaker group that day, but the manner in which he won suggests that he may be capable of better. Make the Rules was away from the gate slowly and rushed through the pack into contention. He tugged Paco Lopez into the lead approaching the quarter pole and then still was able to kick away with a strong final quartermile despite his early exertions. He may show more speed this time with a clean break. Among those with more experience, his greatest rival is perhaps Felix in Fabula. He’s proven that he handles the distance, and I can excuse his last race, which came against tougher company in the slop. I’m using both of these, but the horse who interests me most is Mr. Fixit. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring this runner since he should be clearly in front, setting moderate fractions in the early going. The seven-furlong distance is a question mark, but this gelding’s form is slightly stronger than it appears. He won easily two back in a race that may have been a bit better than it seems. Then last time, he got the wrong trip as he was dueling inside on a day when you probably didn’t want to be right on the rail. That also came against older horses, and now he drops back in against straight 3-year-olds. The outside post should help him work out a more comfortable trip.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 6 with 1,3 with 1,2,3,4
RACE 4: BRATTATA (#2)
On speed figures, Got Stormy has a significant edge over this field. However, I think that’s partly a function of the races she’s been contesting. She certainly outran expectations in both the Edgewood and Penn Oaks and deserves credit for those performances. However, prior to that, she was not running significantly better than a horse like Ferdinanda. Did Got Stormy just improve since then? It’s possible, but I think some others in this field also are capable of progressing. Punked and Ferdinanda both have to be considered after finishing a neck apart in an allowance race last month. I don’t think that was the strongest field overall, though these two both ran well within the context of the race. I’m using them, but the horse I think has the best chance to step up with a big effort is Brattata. This filly has been a disappointment during her brief career, but she’s also had a ton of excuses. She was definitely best in her first two starts sprinting and then was hindered by wide trips in a series of two-turn attempts. I’ve always thought that she would be better cutting back to one turn, so this one-mile distance at Belmont should be perfect for her.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,7
RACE 7: LOVELY LA LA (#6)
The two fillies with turf form who are likely to attract the most support are Dream Passage and New Pass. The former has had many chances, but she’s also run well in the majority of her races. I can’t pick her on top, but she has to be in the mix. I slightly prefer New Pass, who is a bit better than her speed figures indicate. She’s run well in both starts since returning from the layoff, and the slight turnback to seven furlongs should be ideal. I’m using her prominently, but the horse who interests me most at a slightly better price is Lovely La La. I think it’s a good sign that Chad Brown tried her on dirt in her career debut despite her pedigree being geared more toward grass racing. She must have trained well in the morning, and it’s not as if she ran badly in that race. However, watching the performance, it’s clear that she has a high-striding action that is probably better suited to turf. Her dam is a half-sister to turf runners J’ray and Make a Decision, and I like that Brown is keeping her at this shorter distance for her grass debut.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 5,7,8,10
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 5,7,10
RACE 8: BATTLE MIDWAY (#7)
Top of the Page seems like the horse to beat after getting claimed back by Gary Gullo out of his last race. He ran well that day and may have won had he gotten to the outside at the top of the stretch. He’s a bit cheaper than some of the others in this field, but it would be unwise to ignore a horse in good form. Got Even is one of his main rivals, as he goes out first off the claim for Robertino Diodoro. This barn is 9 for 23 (39 percent, $2.80 ROI) first off the claim with horses running in $20,000 claimers or cheaper on the NYRA circuit. Got Even has back class and actually faced some decent fields last winter at Oaklawn. However, he appears to need the lead to run his best races, and there is other speed in this race. I’m using him, but the horse I want to bet is Battle Midway. This closer appears to have the right running style for this race, and the claim by Rudy Rodriguez is significant. Over the past five years, this barn is 13 for 33 (39 percent, $2.43 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes with horses coming off layoffs of 50 to 100 days.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 6,8,10
RACE 9: SHE’S DREAMIN (#1A)
High Jingo figures to go off as the favorite off the trainer switch to Jason Servis, who has been nearly unstoppable at this Belmont meet. She could play out as the controlling speed, but there are some other runners in this race that could press her, such as Pauseforthecause and Dreams Are Pazible. I have some minor concerns about her seeing out the 7 furlongs with pressure from those aforementioned fillies, and she does need to improve for this new barn. I’m using her, but she doesn’t excite me at a short price. Piquet may have run the best last race, but she did so with the aid of an extremely fast pace. That said, she still ran well, as she finished with a flourish closing from the back of the pack. It took her a long time to break her maiden, but she’s always had ability and it’s possible that she’s just now finding her best form as a four-year-old. She’s very much a part of my play, but I’m taking a shot with a different horse out of that May 26 race. She’s Dreamin may have needed her first start back from the layoff when she got a mildly uncomfortable trip. Hector Diaz had her in a tight spot between horses heading around the far turn and she got caught behind a tiring runner when it was time to make her move approaching the quarter pole. Once in the stretch, she didn’t have much of a finish, but she probably got something out of the race. Now she’s back at the same level and gets a positive rider switch to Junior Alvarado. This filly showed some talent last year and can be competitive here if she gets back to those efforts.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,7,8,10