PICKS

(updated for surface changes)
Race 1:   2 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 3:   7 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 4:   2 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   10 - 12 - 4
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 7: 5 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 5
Race 9:   3 - 1A - 11 - 5
Race 10:   2 - 8 - 11 - 3

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: ANNA LIFFEY (#2)
The options in this race are not very appealing. Diamonds N Stones was installed as the morning-line favorite off a third-place finish at this level last time. However, she didn't actually run any better than the runner that finished just behind her that day, Anna Liffey. This Leo O'Brien-trained filly turned her head at the start, spotting the field nearly 10 lengths. All things considered she did well to get up for fourth, and a similar effort may be good enough to win at this level provided she breaks cleanly. I know it seems like that's her only decent race, but her prior dirt race April 7 was not nearly as bad an effort as it seems. She got a truly ridiculous trip that day, losing many lengths of position while being steadied in traffic on the turn. This filly has subtly improved in recent months and has a legitimate chance to pull off the upset here.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,7,8

RACE 6: WONDERFUL LIGHT (#2)
Switzerland is the horse to beat and will probably win this race if he runs back to his effort at Keeneland two back. However, his last effort at Belmont - excuses or not - was bad, and he must rebound. The runner that I think is most likely to pull off an upset is second-time starter Wonderful Light. Michelle Nevin typically does better with runners that have experience, and this horse ran like one that may have needed his debut. He was a bit sluggish early, made good progress on the turn, and then finished well despite drifting down to the rail in the stretch. This half-brother to multiple graded stakes winner By the Moon has a ton of upside. I'll also use Zap Zap Zap, who should appreciate turning back in distance.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,7