by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 2 - 9 - 3
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 9 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 4: 8 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 5 - 10
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 10: 6 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 11: 8 - 11 - 3 - 9
RACE 1: PEACEFUL FEELING (#6)
Sun Summers is obviously the horse to beat as she comes into this race with a superior set of speed figures, many of which have been achieved against stronger company. Yet, I think we can poke some holes in this favorite. She ran fine in her return from the layoff last time at Gulfstream, but she really had every chance in the stretch and couldn’t offer much of a late punch. That’s been her only start during the past year and while she did show some ability as a 3-year-old, one has to wonder if she’s still quite as good after all that time away. Her trainer Jane Cibelli has strong statistics out of town, but she’s just 1-for-21 at NYRA over the past 5 years. Furthermore, she’s going to attract more support than is really warranted with Irad Ortiz climbing aboard. I’m trying to beat her with Peaceful Feeling. This filly ran pretty well in her return from the layoff at Tampa Bay Downs in May, nearly taking that field all the way on the front end. She couldn’t build on that performance last time at Gulfstream, but she was facing a much tougher field that day, as winner Belle Laura has stakes form on the turf. Now she’s dropping into a more realistic spot for Kent Sweezey and she figures to be forwardly placed in a race where her only major pace rival is the inferior Petalite. She’s my top pick, and I’d also use her with the 3-year-old filly Sky Kitten. It’s unclear if this David Donk trainee had any run in the stretch last time, but she was buried inside by apprentice Cardenas. She now gets a positive rider switch to Luis Saez and should be a square price.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,9
Trifecta: 6 with 2,9 with 2,3,5,8,9
RACE 4: MARY’S GIRL (#8)
Timely Tradition is a likely favorite as she seeks her third consecutive victory. Based on her recent speed figures she obviously fits against this field, though it is worth noting that she has struggled to break through at this level in the past. Furthermore, I think she’s subtly moving into a much tougher spot here. She looked superior to that field at Oaklawn last time and she was beating up on a weaker group two back at Aqueduct. I’m using her, but there are other contenders to consider. The scratch of potential speed Fierce Lady has caused me to elevate Bertranda. I know she looks a little cheaper than some of her rivals, but she ran a fantastic race upon return last time. She got engaged in a racelong duel with Letmetakethiscall before putting that one away, only to just get nailed on the wire by a late runner. This mare has run well at this level in the past and is drawn well outside of the remaining speeds in this field. That said, I want to go in a slightly different direction in search of the horse that will offer the best value, and in my opinion that’s going to be Mary’s Girl. I don’t know if she’s quite good enough to beat this field if the aforementioned pair each show up with their best efforts, but that’s hardly a guarantee. I feel that Mary’s Girl showed subtle improvement this past winter at Aqueduct. She ran deceptively well in all four starts at this level, especially in her last two starts going a mile. Some may assert that she improved with added ground, but I think she was just doing well as a more mature 4-year-old. She certainly didn’t finish off those races like she was relishing the added distance, so I like this turnback. She also figures to get an honest pace to close into.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,5,7
RACE 5: FARRAGUT (#2)
There’s a lot of guesswork to be done in this race, and I feel that some horses who don’t particularly interest me could attract plenty of support. I’m not really interested in either horse coming out of the Gulfstream race won by Competitive Saint back in May. Flying Finish will attract money with Irad in the irons but I just don’t think this horse is really a sprinter. He was slow away from the gate, sluggish early, and green through the stretch. He can obviously move forward off that performance, but I’m not sure how strong that field was. I also can’t take Papa Luke, who just stopped after contesting the pace for 3 furlongs in a race that was won by the horse chasing him. Of the Florida shippers, I’m slightly more interested in Your Awesome Boss even though he exits an off-the-turf race. He actually met some decent dirt runners in there and the race came up reasonably fast. Though, I still think he’d have to improve to beat this field despite moving into New York-bred company. I like Farragut. I know he’s had more chances than the aforementioned runners, and he’s already faced New York-breds. However, he’s run deceptively well in a few of his starts and may just finally be catching the right group. He lost a heartbreaking decision last time after getting floated extremely wide on the far turn. Given his route experience, he should appreciate the extra half-furlong to work with this time. I just think he’s very logical and he’s going to be a fair price.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,7,10,11
RACE 8: MY SISTER NAT (#3)
I’ll be interested to see how they bet this race. Call Me Love is probably the right favorite given her excellent North American debut and the fact that she’s getting a rider switch to leading jockey Irad Oritz. However, Mean Mary has been very popular at the windows and I won’t be shocked if the public breaks in her favor given her impressive winter résumé. From a handicapping standpoint, I slightly prefer Call Me Love. She was never really a threat to Rushing Fall last time and mostly picked up pieces for second. Yet the distance of the Beaugay was probably on the short side for her, and this 1 1/4 miles of the New York should be right up her alley. While Mean Mary has proven that she is proficient over distances even farther than this, the nature of the inner turf course at Belmont could work in her favor. Speed is always dangerous, especially when the rails are set at 0 feet, as is currently the case. My one reservation with Mean Mary is that she’s really stepping up in class here, as she was facing some weaker fields at Gulfstream. I want to go in a slightly different direction, and my top pick is My Sister Nat. This half-sister to stable star Sistercharlie was initially a disappointment upon arriving in the U.S. last year, losing a series of optional claiming races at short prices. However, Chad Brown nevertheless persevered and entered her in the Long Island Stakes. She lost by a neck, but arguably ran the best race as winner Si Que Es Buena got an unbelievable trip up the rail. It feels like this mare finally turned the corner, and the added distance also appears to be working in her favor. This is a tough spot for her, but she appears to be training very well for her return and it’s a rare situation where we may get a Chad Brown horse at a square price.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,7 with 1,2,4,7
RACE 9: WICKED TRICK (#3)
This race has changed significantly in light of the scratch of likely favorite Promises Fulfilled. His absence takes plenty of speed out of the race, which may change the expected pace scenario. Though, I was skeptical about Promises Fulfilled getting back into form, and actually trust Firenze Fire a bit more. The sloppy track may have been a valid excuse for Firenze Fire in the Carter last time, as he never looked comfortable chasing through the mud after breaking from the rail. Irad Ortiz gets along with this horse better than anyone and he figures to work out a much better trip breaking from the outside this time. There is still the issue of the trainer switch away from Jason Servis, but I’ll be somewhat surprised if this horse truly can’t run anymore for the new barn. That said, I can’t accept a short price on him either. It feels like there still could be an honest pace up front with Diamond King and Yorkton in here, and Firenze Fire should sit a perfect trip just off them. That said, I’m sticking with my original top pick of Wicked Trick. Is he good enough? It’s unclear. His efforts going a mile two back was excellent, but I think that performance was a testament to how well he was doing over the winter rather than some grand statement about his distance preferences. He flattened out late going the same trip in the Stymie, and I much prefer him turning back to this 6 1/2 furlong trip. He actually ran very well over a sloppy track at Aqueduct back in December when he overcame a speed-favoring surface to win, so he shouldn't be hindered by rain in the forecast. He’s going to get plenty of pace to close into and Linda Rice’s runners have begun performing better in recent weeks.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,8
Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 1,5,6
RACE 10: UNI (#6)
This race is all about the match-up between Chad Brown’s two Breeders’ Cup winners, Newspaperofrecord and Uni. Let’s start with Newspaperofrecord. She got back on track last time in the Intercontintental, benefitting from the aggressive tactics by Irad Ortiz. They were intent on putting her on the lead that day, and she never looked back in a dominating performance. That 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure is among the best numbers you’ll see in this division all year. Yet this Just a Game presents a different set of circumstances than the Intercontinental. Newspaperofrecord got to run over her preferred yielding turf course last time and she absolutely loved it. Yet others were not as enamored with the going, and some rivals just failed to show up at all. That was also a turf course that appeared to favor front-runners and hinder closers. There’s no denying that Newspaperofrecord is one of the most talented horses in the country over rain-softened turf, but it’s as of yet unclear if she will be able to translate that form to firmer going. She’s never been one to settle and sprint for home, which is often the key to success on firm turf. And even though she won the Intercontinental impressively, she ran it like a dirt race – fast early and slow late. It’s unclear if such enterprising tactics will lead to success in this spot. Her stablemate Uni is the polar opposite. Her strength is her finishing speed, so unless Newspaperofrecord has built up a sizable advantage by the quarter pole, Uni could have the upper hand this time. Uni was brilliant last year. It’s true that she got advantageous pace setups in both the First Lady and Breeders’ Cup Mile, but she took full advantage of those situations, producing dazzling stretch runs. While she typically comes from far off the pace, she is capable of sitting closer to the lead when they’re not going quickly up front. Though, if Newspaperofrecord is ridden as aggressively as last time to get in front of Valedictorian early, Uni may get the setup she needs regardless of the smaller field size. As long as Uni returns in top form as a 6-year-old, which seems likely given her general consistency, I think she’s going to run down her enigmatic stablemate.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 4 with 1,2,5,7