by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 8 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 6: 5 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 8: 1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 8 - 3 - 6 - 4
RACE 1: RED RIGHT HAND (#4)
Skywriting and Final Say are both dropping in for a tag for the first time, and they are likely to attract support on that basis. Skywriting is the one with stronger credentials. He finished a good second going this distance at Aqueduct in April, earning a field-best 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He then got involved in a contested pace next time at Belmont and faded to fourth. The extra sixteenth of a mile of his last start probably didn’t help, but he was also badly overmatched between two stakes-bound runners, Highest Honors and Meet Me in L A. This drop in class is needed, and Jimmy Jerkens wisely removes the blinkers after they were ineffective last time out. I strongly prefer him to Final Say, who has never run a particularly competitive race and will be a short price due to the connections. Yet my top pick is a horse who has already raced for a tag. Red Right Hand drops down to the $50,000 level after finishing second for $75,000 last time. He ran well that day, but was unfortunate to run into Mental Model, who exploded with a breakout six-length victory. The winner was also on the rail for much of his trip, that was clearly the place to be on May 19 at Belmont Park. Conversely, Red Right Hand was forced to chase outside throughout, moving three to four wide around the far turn before flattening out in the lane. He actually ran much better than that 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure indicates, and I think he can move forward in his second start at Belmont. He showed some promise as a 3-year-old 2018, so he’s capable of running faster.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,3,5
RACE 3: WORTH A SHOT (#2)
Daring Disguise is obviously the horse to beat after showing improvement on the switch to turf. He made a strong late run to be second two back behind his stablemate Elektronic and then made a belated bid to be fourth in a fast race on June 6, which produced New York Stallion Series Stakes winner Rinaldi. The early pace of that most recent start was fairly slow, indicated by blue color-coded pace figures, so Daring Disguise was against the flow of that race. I think this horse is going to appreciate the stretch-out to seven furlongs, since the shorter trip just felt too short for him based on his prior dirt form. I respect him and I believe he is clearly the most likely winner, but I’m not excited at the prospect of picking him at a short price. The other runners likely to attract support are less appealing. Qian B C has had his chances since returning as a 3-year-old and is not guaranteed to appreciate the added distance of this race. Uncle Curly would be formidable if able to recapture the form he displayed at Tampa this winter, but he has gone the wrong way since then. Therefore, I want to look for a new face. I’m taking a shot with Linda Rice’s other entrant, Worth a Shot. This gelding made one start at Aqueduct last fall and it came over the wrong surface. He was entered for turf that day, and the race got rained off the grass. He just never seemed comfortable racing over the main track, which makes sense considering that he’s a full brother to graded stakes-winning turfer Voodoo Song. Now he’s returning as a 3-year-old and Linda Rice has outstanding statistics in this situation. Everyone knows that she does a fantastic job with second-time starters, but she’s particularly effective when adding blinkers to second-time starting maidens. Over the past five years, she is 13 for 37 (35 percent, $3.33 ROI) with that move.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,3,8
RACE 5: STRATEGIC OUTLOOK (#8)
Rhode Island may finally break his maiden if he merely repeats his last effort, when he made a strong late run to fall just short of running down Labeq. It was good to see him get back on track after a pair of alarmingly lackluster performances during the spring. However, he’s still not the most trustworthy type, and he’s already had plenty of chances to break through when he actually was in top form. I’m using him defensively, but I prefer Strategic Outlook at what figures to be a slightly better price. This horse has raced for a tag before, but he’s done so at the tougher $75,000 level. Those races generally draw significantly tougher fields than their $40,000 counterparts, so this is an actual drop in class. He was somewhat dull when he returned from the layoff at Aqueduct in April, but I thought he took a subtle step forward in his second start off the layoff last time. While it’s not noted in the short comment, this horse actually had some trouble coming to the top of the stretch. His rider Luis Reyes unwisely rode him into traffic as he attempted to move too soon, and Strategic Outlook had to alter course and get taken up, losing significant momentum at a critical point. He stayed on decently to be sixth, but he was never able to regain the speed he had lost. Now he’s getting a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz and he’s facing the softest field he’s met in his career. Trainer Leah Gyarmati rarely wins turf races, but that should only drive up the price on a horse who may be the most likely winner.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,5,7
RACE 6: PERFORMER (#5)
Likely favorite Lion Dance has been highly regarded from the start. He closed willingly to be second in a live maiden race at Saratoga, which produced Kentucky Jockey Club winner Signalman. He then disappointed as the 4-5 favorite behind eventual Kentucky Derby winner Country House at Aqueduct in the fall and was put away for the winter. He sustained a very wide trip when he returned sprinting in May, but was hardly disgraced losing to Fortune's Fool, who returned to finish a good second last week with a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He has a right to move forward here, but there are other viable contenders to consider. My top selection is Performer, who returns for his 3-year-old debut after making one start in 2018. He was well supported that day, getting bet down to 7-5, but things didn’t go quite right. He hit the gate at the start while off a step slowly, then had to pause while rushing up in traffic. He gamely pursued the top two finishers and was coming home best of all across the wire. He was also slightly compromised by the pace that day, as all of the pace figures are color-coded blue in TimeformUS PPs, indicating a slow early tempo. He’s been given plenty of time off since then but appears to be working well for the return. Shug McGaughey is 6 for 29 (21 percent, $2.08 ROI) with second-time starting maidens getting Lasix for the first time. I expect him to show improvement in his 3-year-old debut, but I would also consider one of the first-time starters. Chad Brown sends out One Eyed Jack, who has pedigree to be a nice horse. He’s by good debut sire Uncle Mo out of a full sister to multiple stakes winner Doctor Mounty. It appears that he’s worked in company with Grade 3 winner Engage and recent allowance winner Looking at Bikinis.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,6
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3 with ALL
RACE 9: CATSOUTOFTHEBAG (#8)
I have no major knocks against Funny Money Honey, who deserves to be the favorite in this spot. Her connections scratched her out of a stakes event last weekend to instead contest this slightly easier starter allowance race. She also gets to race over 6 furlongs again, and that seems to be her preferred distance. She wasn’t disgraced in her first start against winners last time, but she clearly regressed off her dazzling maiden win two back. If she can get back to that performance, she will be very difficult to beat, but if she only repeats her last race, I think she’s vulnerable. I’m using her defensively, but I want to take a shot with a new face. My top pick is Catsoutofthebag, who makes her NYRA debut while returning from a slight layoff. I had actually been looking to bet this filly a few times last fall when Mike Dini entered her in a pair of turf events that were rained off the grass. She obviously took to the grass when she first got a chance to compete over it this winter, but she has had struggled since she has had to move up to face winners. Yet now she’s had some time off, and she’s cutting back in distance. While she’s clearly bred for turf on the dam’s side, she’s also bred to be a sprinter. Discreet Cat can be a speed influence, and her dam is a half-sister to Signora Cabello, winner of the Group 2 Queen Mary over 5 furlongs in England. She appears to be a smaller, compact kind of filly, so sprinting may be right up her alley. Mike Dini has been quiet in 2019, but he shipped a bunch of live longshots to NYRA last year and I think this filly lands in a good spot.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 1,4,6