PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 2:   4 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 3:   7 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 7 - 10
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 6:   9 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 7:   6 - 8 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   6 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 9:   4 - 6 - 8 - 1
Race 10:   6 - 2 - 12 - 8

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

There’s little doubt that Highland Grace (#5) is the horse to beat. This well-bred filly has been steadily improving with each start and may have just finally found a field that she’s supposed to beat. I really liked the way she finished two back in a race where the pace held together at Gulfstream, and then last time she launched a big rally from far back to get up for second. The only knock against her is that she will have to stretch out to 1 3/8 miles, which adds a level of uncertainty to what would otherwise look like a straightforward race. And distance could be a key factor for two of her main rivals, both second time starters from the Christophe Clement stable. Pret a Toucher (#8) actually comes out of the same race as Highland Grace, though she didn’t run as well in what was her career debut. Added distance figures to aid this daughter of War Front, who has plenty of stamina on the bottom side of her pedigree. I also won’t be surprised when she gets a more aggressive ride from Joel Rosario this time. Yet I prefer the other Clement runner Settling Storm (#4). This daughter of Tonalist just looks like one that wants to run all day. She’s a rangy, leggy type who was pretty one-paced in her debut where she stayed on for second going 9 furlongs. The extra distance figures to work to her benefit, and she’s bred to be a good one, as a half-sister to graded stakes winner American Lion. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see her up close to the race given her grinding style.

Fair Value:
#4 SETTLING STORM, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4

Souffle (#7) is obviously the horse to beat as she returns from a layoff for her 3-year-old debut. She earned a flashy speed figure when she was unveiled last summer at Saratoga, just missing as the favorite in a fast race. She understandably attracted a ton of support when she came back for her second start at Aqueduct, but she regressed significantly finishing off the board as the 2-5 choice. There has to be some question about which version of Souffle is going to show up off the layoff, and she figures to be a short price once again. Spooky Lady (#3) is a difficult runner to assess as she moves up in class. She obviously took to turf last time when earning a field-best 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure for a narrow loss. Yet that was a weaker maiden claiming event and I’m a little skeptical that she can repeat that effort against tougher going 7 furlongs. I actually think the horse to beat is Snowy Evening (#5). This filly has run well in most of her turf sprint starts, and she has the recency that some others lack. She closed nicely for second in her return to turf in April and then last time was staying on best of all at the end in what may have been a stronger race for the level. She’s wheeling back on just 7 days’ rest, but nevertheless looks dangerous with Jose Ortiz getting aboard. My top pick is Cerretta (#4), who figures to be a better price. This filly seemed to really appreciate the turnback in distance on turf last year when she made a wild late run from far back to just miss in a maiden claiming event going 6 furlongs. She probably would have won that day if not for a poor start. She got back on turf last time off the layoff at Aqueduct and ran better than the result indicates. She was wide throughout, reserved off a slow pace that held together. Yet she was finishing best of all at the end, and we’ve seen horses return to run well out of that spot. H. James Bond does better second off a layoff than first off a layoff, and I think the 7-furlong distance will be perfect for her.

Fair Value:
#4 CERRETTA, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 5

David Jacobson’s barn has really come alive during the past month, so perhaps his entrant No More Talk (#1) will win his second in a row here after taking down a $16k claimer last week. Yet this is a much tougher spot than the prior races he’s won on this circuit, and he’s going to be a short price again with Irad Ortiz aboard. Others who figure to take money include Lohengrin Two (#4) and Heir Port (#6), though both are need the lead types who figure to hook up early. I think this is a great race in which to get a little more creative. First Deputy (#2) is surely one to consider as he drops in class. He’s been facing much tougher company at the state-bred N2X level and he won his last start for a $25k claiming tag in February. He tends to be slow out of the gate, so he really needs the pace to come apart, but that’s a possibility. My top pick is Charlie Five O (#7), who I believe will offer the best value of anyone in this race. Some may find it difficult to take these connections, but the horse has held his form pretty well since getting claimed by Eduardo Jones. He’s simply been running in many spots that are too tough for him. The most realistic spot he’s been in since the claim is a $32k claimer in April where he ran well to be third. Since then he was on a dead rail on April 20, and then last time he made a nice middle move before flattening out against a much tougher starter allowance field. He’s getting the class relief he needs and a rider upgrade to Oscar Gomez.

Fair Value:
#7 CHARLIE FIVE O, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 6

I’m not thrilled with many of the contenders who could take money in this allowance affair. Diamond Hands (#4) might go favored with Irad Ortiz aboard, but she’s hard to trust on the turnback after disappointing in a series of route races. They add blinkers to this front-runner, but there’s other speed signed on. I’m also not too keen on the horses who exit that April 16 allowance event at Aqueduct. Redifined (#1) is an enigma as she tries to get back on track following a poor effort at Tampa. Yet I’m concerned about the way she’s shut down late in each of her last two races and wonder if there’s an issue preventing her from displaying the form we saw at the start of her career. Cadencia (#11) would obviously be a major player if she drew into the field off the AE list. She ran a nice speed figure last time when dominating starter allowance foes and is obviously a danger in her current form. She figures to sit off Gun Boat (#3) in the early stages, and that Shug McGaughey trainee is another win candidate. The layoff is a concern, but she showed some promise as a 2-year-old and has a right to do having had some time to mature. Given my reservations about many of the short prices, I want to look outside the box. Michele M. (#9) figures to get somewhat overlooked despite going out for Christophe Clement and Joel Rosario. She obviously didn’t run very fast in either start last season on synthetic. Yet she’s bred to be more of a turf horse, by burgeoning turf influence West Coast out of a strong female grass family. The dam is a half-sister to millionaire turf horse Wilcox Inn, from the female family of awesome turf horses like Cetewayo, Dynaforce, Bowman Mill, and Innovation Economy. They paid quite a bit of money for her as a 2-year-old and Christophe Clement has placed her ambitiously off the layoff in her first start for his barn.

Fair Value:
#9 MICHELE M., at 9-1 or greater

RACE 7

I’m a little skeptical of Cumberland (#2) as the potential favorite in this maiden event. This colt obviously ran well when last seen at Gulfstream, setting the pace before getting run down by the talented Kalik, who will be one of the favorites in the Pennine Ridge. However, he debuted going 5 furlongs, and I wonder if he’s a horse who really gets better with added distance. He’s actually been entered twice already at this meet in races rained off the turf, and those were races carded at 6 and 7 furlongs. He’s the horse to beat, but I have reservations at a short price. You also might have to take a short price on Redistricting (#8), who appears to be a live first time starter for Chad Brown. This son of top sire Kingman is extremely well-bred, being out of a dam who is a full-sister to Breeders’ Cup Turf winner St. Nicholas Abbey. His last workout matches the aforementioned Kalik, and he’s expected to run well here. Yet I’m more interested in some runners with more experience. Balthazar (#4) makes some sense after steadily improving through his first four starts. He lacks the upside of some others, but seems like a reliable option. My top pick at a potentially bigger price is Ohana Honor (#6). This colt showed some talent early in his career on dirt, but didn’t really progress on that surface. He switched to turf last time and I thought he might have won that race with a clear stretch run. He was reserved off a moderate pace and had to wait for room in upper stretch before hitting his best stride too late. Any added distance figures to help him, and he’s getting a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat.

Fair Value:
#6 OHANA HONOR, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 8

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast early pace, which should work in the favor of likely favorite Shadow Dragon (#7). I wasn’t a big fan of this horse on the Derby trail, but he is now getting significant and needed class relief as he drops into this New York-bred allowance. He obviously handles the distance, and an honest pace up front should suit his style. I’m not against him, but I also don’t expect him to be much of a price. My top pick is Ormstown (#6). This 3-year-old feels like a runner on the rise. He didn’t run to his full potential in the first two starts of his career, as he needed his debut and then got the wrong trip second time out. He put it all together last time, easily making the front end before drawing away under mild encouragement. This half-brother to stakes winner Water’s Edge really improved with the stretch-out, and he doesn’t strike me as a need-the-lead type. I don’t think he has to take much of a step forward to beat the favorite, and he still has upside.

Fair Value:
#6 ORMSTOWN, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 9

I’ll be interested to see how this Pennine Ridge is bet. I didn’t make him the morning line favorite, but I view Kalik (#6) as the one to beat. His running style just gives him a massive pace advantage, and he kicked for home so impressively when using front-running tactics in his allowance score last time. That 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him one of the fastest horses in here, and the 9-furlong configuration on the inner should suit him perfectly. I made him 7-2 on the morning line, but I have a feeling he might go off at a shorter price given those obvious merits and Irad Ortiz in the saddle. Among the short prices, Far Bridge (#8) is the one that I would lean towards downgrading slightly. This colt is obviously quite gifted, but he’s gotten perfect trips in all of his starts and he may have to overcome some adversity here. My top pick is Silver Knott (#4), who I view as the most likely winner. He showed real ability as a 2-year-old, especially in winning a pair of Group 3 events last fall in England. He narrowly lost as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but he ran a gallant race that day, overcoming a slow start before knifing through a narrow opening at the rail in the stretch. He failed to show up with his good effort off the layoff in the 2000 Guineas, but that was an ambitious spot and he’s not at his best over soft ground. I like him stretching out to 9 furlongs, since he has a done of stamina on the bottom side of his pedigree. He just needs to break cleanly. Lachaise (#1) is the one price I tried to make a case for, as I liked his effort in the Pilgrim. This is just a tall order off the layoff.

Fair Value:
#4 SILVER KNOTT, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 10

This finale is a real skull buster. I would actually prefer AE Miracle Mike (#14) had drawn into the main body of the field, since he would at least be a horse to bet against. He got a great trip last time, closing into a very fast pace, and would take money based on connections. Among the main body of the field, a different horse out of that race is the one to beat. Barry the Builder (#2) made the first move into that quick pace, making up a ton of ground on the backstretch to contest the lead into the far turn before fading late. I thought that was a mild step forward on his 2-year-old form, and he could step forward again second off the layoff with Lasix going on. The interesting new face in here is Bad Larry (#12), who tries turf for the first time first off the claim for Mike Maker. He has plenty of turf pedigree, being by new turf influence Collected out of a dam who won on turf and has produced a turf winner. He faced some decent fields in his first two starts and finished well last time after reacting badly to kickback. I think he’ll like the surface, but the stretch-out is a minor concern. It’s also not as if he’s going to be some enticing price. My top pick is Just for Luck (#6). I have to give this horse one more chance after trying him last time in a tougher spot. He didn’t do much running that day, just trailing throughout, but he didn’t finish that far behind some others who are considered contenders in this spot. He did show ability on debut last year at Keeneland, overcoming a poor star to make a nice stretch rally against a better field. Perhaps switching into the Ray Handal barn and adding blinkers can help wake him up. He figures to be a generous price.

Fair Value:
#6 JUST FOR LUCK, at 10-1 or greater