by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 5:   5 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   1 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 8:   2 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   8 - 7 - 1 - 11

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: SWEET STING (#4)
Dancing Breeze is clearly the filly to beat as she returns from a layoff for Graham Motion. She showed real quality last year when finishing second in the Winter Memories behind the talented Rymska. Dancing Breeze raced three wide for much of her trip that day and made the first move to the front before getting inhaled by the winner in the final furlong. It was a nice improvement on her stateside debut, in which she actually ran better than it seems when closing into a slow pace. This barn does very well off lengthy layoffs, but it is worth noting that Motion has had more success with foreign shippers in that category, as opposed to returnees like Dancing Breeze. Furthermore, she handled “good” courses in both New York starts last year, and it remains to be seen how well she will take to a much firmer course on Saturday. Her main rival appears to be La Moneda, who has ascended through her New York-bred conditions with style. She won impressively last time but did so with the aid of a perfect trip. She clearly has ability, but I think there’s another challenger in this race at a bigger price who poses just as great of a threat. Sweet Sting was no match for top filly Significant Form last time, but I thought she ran the second-best race in defeat after making an outside run around the far turn. This well-bred filly showed promise over the winter at Gulfstream and has taken a step forward with each start. While she has yet to run fast enough to threaten the aforementioned two runners, she’s heading in the right direction. Over the past five years, Jimmy Jerkens is 14 for 37 (38 percent, $3.61) with horses coming off layoffs of 45 to 75 days in turf routes. It seems likely that Sweet Sting has benefitted from her brief time away from the races, and the uncharacteristically quick breeze on June 16 corroborates that hypothesis.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,8

 

RACE 4: IN THE LEE (#6)
La Sardane is the horse to beat as she shoots for her second consecutive New York stakes victory, but I still have some reservations about her overall quality. While it may seem that she answered those questions by taking down a Grade 3 stakes race last time, that race does not look quite as solid once you dissect it. The favorite scratched, and her remaining top rivals just completely failed to show. In fact, the 3 shortest prices in the wagering outside of this filly (Delectation, Stormy Victoria, and Thundering Sky) were the last 3 to cross the wire. Approaching the eighth pole, it appeared that La Sardane was going to draw off to a convincing victory, but she never really got away from her rivals and had to work hard to beat inferior horses like Faypien and Heavenly Score. I’m always a little leery of horses who have a quick burst of speed and flatten out, especially when they’re stretching out in distance. I’m using her defensively, but I think this is the time to take a shot against her. The most logical alternative is Thais, who kept good company in a couple of stakes races last year and got the job done in her return to the races on May 18. She’s going to have to improve on that effort to win here, but that’s certainly a possibility. I’m using her, but the horse I want to bet is actually coming out of a different optional-claiming race. In the Lee just got up as the heavy favorite when beating today’s rival Pas de Soucis on May 24. She was confidently handled that day, as she was reserved off a moderate pace before unleashing a strong stretch bid. Her speed figures are just slightly lower than those of the top contenders, but I think she has the most upside of anyone in this field. She improved with racing throughout last season and hinted that she might be able to compete at this level in a better-than-it-looks fourth in the Commonwealth Oaks. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and she is one of the few who possesses the tactical speed to stay close to the early pace.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 2,4 with 1,2,3,4,7

 

RACE 6: NANTUCKET RED (#5)
Plans to Prosper is a deserving favorite after closing resolutely from the back of the pack to be second at Monmouth last time. That field was arguably as tough as this one and Plans to Prosper ran well despite having to race extremely wide around the far turn. I’m definitely using her, but her running style does concern me, since there does not appear to be an abundance of early speed in this race. Chad Brown has two fillies in here, and the one likely to attract more support is Coexistence. While she did have to race 3-wide around both turf in her last start, I still have trouble forgiving her for failing to get by camera-shy Miss Munnings in the late stages. I think she’s somewhat vulnerable at a short price. My top pick is Nantucket Red, who figures to work out a good trip up close to a moderate pace. She was just a little too headstrong last time, as she tugged Jose Ortiz up into the lead after breaking in the middle of the pack. The pace of that race was fast, and she actually did well to hang on for fourth as the closers came running at the end. Now Mot is taking the blinkers off in an effort to get her to relax, and I think she will prove difficult to catch if she takes another step forward.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,4

 

RACE 7: COLONEL TOM (#1)
Despite losing three straight races by narrow margins, Shiraz is probably going to go favored once again due to the lack of obvious alternatives. It’s hard to just dismiss this horse, because he’s obviously in very good form. He actually ran well in his last start, slicing through a hole in mid-stretch while simply second-best to the winner. That said, he’s obviously not the kind of runner I’m going to pick on top. I can say many of the same things about Nutzforboltz, who has also proven to have some hang in him. However, Nutzforboltz just isn’t quite as talented as Shiraz and I think he’s up against it from a pace standpoint here. I’m not opposed to Five Star Bunt, who actually ran pretty well in his turf debut last time in a race that may have been stronger than it first appeared. Yet the horse that I want to bet is Colonel Tom. He was never involved in the same race that Shiraz exits last time, but he probably needed that start since it was his first race back off lengthy layoff. He gets a complete makeover for his second start off the bench, as George Weaver adds blinkers and Lasix. That indicates to me that they’re looking to get more speed out of this runner after he was somewhat lethargic in the early going last time. He won his debut in wire-to-wire fashion last fall while earning a speed figure that would easily defeat this group. Obviously, plenty of time has passed since then, but if more aggressive early tactics help him get back to anything close to that performance, I think he’ll prove difficult to catch.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6,7

 

RACE 8: MIDNIGHT BISOU (#2)
The Mother Goose is being billed as a matchup between Midnight Bisou and Road to Victory, and perhaps that is appropriate. Yet in my opinion, Midnight Bisou is a far more likely winner of this race. Unlike the Mark Casse filly, Midnight Bisou has already answered all of the relevant questions. She’s earned multiple fast speed figures on dirt, she’s won a graded stakes around one turn, and she proved that she could compete against the best fillies in the country in the Kentucky Oaks. Much has been made of Midnight Bisou’s trip that day, and I think that’s fair. Given the race flow, she did not get an ideal setup. I was impressed with the move she made from the five-sixteenths pole to the eighth pole, but she did seem to flatten out in the final furlong. Ultimately, she may be better suited to this one-turn route as opposed to that two-turn nine furlongs. All reports are that she’s trained well since the barn change, so that is of little concern to me. If she gets a fair pace setup, I expect her to win. Road to Victory is a talented adversary, but she still needs to back up that Golden Rod win from last fall. While there’s no doubt that Road to Victory ran well, Monomoy Girl put in the better effort that day, as her notorious antics got the best of her in the late stages. Casse has successfully used this turf-sprint-to-dirt-route move on a few noteworthy occasions during the past year, so I’m not too concerned about the unusual prep. I just feel that this is a serious test for a filly who still has something to prove, and I’m not willing to accept a short price.

Win: 2
Trifecta: 2 with 6,7 with ALL