by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 7 - 2 - 9
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 12 - 11
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 9 - 2
Race 5:   1 - 5 - 6 - 10
Race 6:   8 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 7:   9 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 8:   1 - 12 - 9 - 5
Race 9:   1 - 11 - 10 - 5
Race 10:   3 - 4 - 6 - 12
Race 11:   6 - 7 - 9 - 3

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: FOX RED (#3)
Getoffmyback comes in with the best speed figures and a blowout win at this level last time. However, he was claimed back in February, so he’s coming off a bit of a layoff, and exiting the barn of Rob Atras, for whom he put forth his best efforts. He’s clearly one of the major contenders, but trainer Michelle Nevin doesn’t have the greatest stats first off the claim, and this gelding may get outrun to the lead this time by the two horses to his outside. I’m using him, but others figure to offer better value. Of those two other speeds, I strongly prefer Fox Red. This Chris Englehart trainee has been caught up in a series of fast paces at Parx, often coming up just short in the late stages after vying for the lead. It’s been a long time since he’s been offered for a tag, but this is probably the drop in class that he needs. Furthermore, this time the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be towards the front in a situation favoring the early leaders. He’s run very well over this surface before and I think he’s going to be tough to reel in if he returns in the same kind of form. The other major player is No Distortion, but it’s been a while since this guy has put forth a competitive effort. He is dropping significantly in class after being claimed by these connections for $40,000 back in February. Notably, this horse was entered and scratched in some much tougher spots back in March, so it’s not a good sign that the connections are now suddenly looking to offload him after he never got in a start for the Rob Atras barn. He can win, but I find him difficult to trust.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,6,7,9
 

RACE 2: CHARGE AHEAD (#3)
This is a very confusing race featuring numerous contenders. Of those with proven turf sprint form, I give the slight edge to Just for One Day. This colt has only made one start on the turf, that coming two back at Gulfstream, and he put forth a solid effort to win. Some may be deterred by the fact that he only won by a neck as the 1-5 favorite, but that turned out to be a stronger maiden event than it appeared at the time, as runner-up Shared Legacy returned to break his maiden with a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I’m using him prominently, but I’d also include logical runners like My Eclair, who should be flashing speed from the outside, and Bourbon Currency, who figures to appreciate the turnback in distance. I’m a little less enthusiastic about the chances of morning line favorite Standup, who got a great trip up the rail at Aqueduct last time and may be overbet off that speed figure. They’re the logical players, but my top pick is the first time turfer Charge Ahead. This horse has been awful in his last two starts, but they came on dirt and he may just not be a dirt horse. All of his prior starts on synthetic at Woodbine were solid, earning speed figures that put him squarely in the mix against this field. Now, it’s no guarantee that synthetic form will translate to turf, but he does have a turf pedigree as a son of 14% turf sire Will Take Charge out of a dam whose only win came on turf. Rudy Rodriguez doesn’t great statistics making this move, but I get the sense that he’s made a clever claim here and has pointed this horse to a good spot.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,11,12
 

RACE 4: DROP OF BOURBON (#1)
This seems like the kind of race that’s inviting you to get a little creative. The favorites just aren’t that appealing. I suppose Michael’s Bad Boy will take some money on the maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdown. His form as a 2-year-old was fine and he’ll be right there if he takes any kind of step forward, but there’s nothing particularly enticing about him. Daring Disguise has earned the best speed figures on the turf, but he’s also had many chances and wasn’t in the best form when last seen. That said, even one of his subpar efforts might be good enough to beat this unproven group. High Tone deserves a look for Mike Maker even though his one turf start was disappointing. Yet he has improved since then and he does have some turf pedigree, so giving another chance on this surface seems reasonable. I’ll use all of them, but there are some bigger prices that merit consideration. One of those is Fivestar Bandit, who has barely lifted a hoof in two dirt starts but possesses a strong turf pedigree. He’s by excellent turf sire Freud and is a full-brother to multiple stakes winner turfer Fourstar Crook. I don’t like that the connections are dropping him before even giving him a chance in a maiden special weight on this surface, but it’s not as if he’d have to be much to win. And my top pick is Drop of Bourbon. This horse made his debut against a decent maiden special weight field last September and just wasn’t ready. He walked out of the gate, spotting the field by about 10 lengths after a few jumps, and he could never get involved thereafter. Ray Handal’s runners always need a start, so he has a right to do better now and they’re getting realistic by dropping him in class. If he had broken cleanly last time he would have earned a speed figure that puts him in the mix. H could get somewhat lost in this wide-open race and is worth a shot at a price.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,9,11
 

RACE 6: SOCIAL PARANOIA (#8)
This Fort Marcy is absolutely wide open. Chad Brown has four runners, but they’re not exactly standouts in a field where you can make a case for all nine contestants. Instilled Regard may go off as the slight favorite despite disappointing when last seen in the Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds. He was just dull that day, but he wasn’t helped by the fact that he was never on the rail on a day when the rails were set at 0 feet. He did get great trips in his starts prior to that, but he had also been in strong form and merits consideration here. Synchrony nailed him on the wire for fifth in that Muniz, but he was compromised by being too far back in the early going. He had run exceptionally well in his prior start when second in the Fair Grounds Stakes, showing that he’s still capable of producing top efforts at age seven. The lack of speed in this field could work against him, but he’s clearly good enough to win on his best day. I could make a case for many others, but my top pick is Social Paranoia. This horse got a great setup when he won the Appleton two back, rallying from last into a fast pace to get the job done. Things didn’t work out so well last time in the Sunshine Forever when he was too far back behind a moderate pace set by his stablemate Halladay. I thought Social Paranoia closed willingly in the late stages despite that disadvantage. Now he’s stretching back out to 1 1/8 miles, and he’s handled longer distances before. Furthermore, Manny Franco is getting back aboard, and he had been much more aggressive than this colt’s recent riders when he rode him last year. Reverting to those stalking tactics should serve him well in this spot, as he can get the jump on his main rivals in a race that lacks a confirmed front-runner.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5,6
Trifecta: 8 with 5,6 with ALL
 

RACE 8: VIADERA (#1)
Chad Brown holds all the card here, as he sends out the top four choices on the morning line. Significant Form seems like the horse to beat as she attempts to win her second consecutive Intercontinental. She’s a versatile mare who is capable of winning shorter routes as well as elongated sprints, so this 7 furlongs is ideal. She was a little overmatched in the Matriarch last year, and I would expect her to get back into top form off the layoff here. The other Brown runner who figures to attract significant support is the enigmatic Newspaperofrecord. In terms of raw ability, she’s among the most appealing runners in this field. Yet you have to be concerned about her trip, since she’s a difficult horse to ride. The presence of Jakarta in this race could be an issue for her since it might force Irad Ortiz to rate her again, and Newspaperofrecord has not responded well to those tactics in the past. I’m using her because I respect her talent, but I can’t make her my top pick. I have no major knocks against Regal Glory, who should appreciate the turnback in distance, but the Chad Brown runner who intrigues me the most is his European shipper. Viadera comes over to this country with solid credentials at the handicap level. She had a bit of a trip last time when toting 136 pounds, and then she just didn’t want to go 1 1/8 miles two back. Prior to that, she was in solid form and she’s handled distances like this in the past, which should be no problem as a daughter of sprinter Bated Breath. She appears to be training very forwardly for her U.S. debut, and I like that Chad Brown reaches out to Joel Rosario.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,7,9,12
Trifecta: 1,12 with 1,12 with 5,7,8,9
 

RACE 9: FIRENZE FIRE (#1)
This Carter Handicap drew an awesome field, and you can make a valid case for each of the main players. I’m a big fan of Performer, so I was disappointed to learn that he's scratching on Saturday morning. That elevates Firenze Fire to my top selection. Given that lack of pace, I think you need to respect this horse. I know that many have legitimate concerns about whether he can maintain his form for the Kelly Breen barn after achieving all of his success for Jason Servis. Yet I think you have to evaluate these horses on a case-by-case basis, and it would be unwise to disregard this runner’s pace advantage. The Pace Projector shows him on a clear early lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and he’s certainly capable of getting the 7-furlong distance when the pace works out. The reality of this race is that he's the proven top sprinter among this group, having been competitive in major races and earned top speed figures. Vekoma makes plenty of sense in his second start off the layoff. I thought his return in the Sir Shackleton was encouraging, and I like that they’re sticking to sprint distances for the time being. Mind Control is a more difficult runner for me to assess. He’s been pegged as the highweight here due to his prior Grade 1 successes, and he’s just not quite as fast as his main contenders. Furthermore, he could be up against it from a pace standpoint if he uses the same running style as we saw last time. That said, he certainly knows how to find the wire. I would also upgrade Network Effect after the scratch of Performer. He has to run faster to take down this crew, but I was impressed by his last victory at Gulfstream.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,10,11
Trifecta: 1 with 5,10,11 with 5,10,11
 

RACE 10: MORE GRAYTFUL (#3)
Tale of the Union is the horse to beat, but you’re probably going to have to accept an awfully short price on a horse who failed to hit the board as the 3-5 favorite last time. The reality is that it’s been a long time since he won that debut at Del Mar so impressively in 2018, and it’s possible that he’s just not the same horse anymore. On the other hand, he is dropping in class to face New York-breds for the first time, and you can make excuses for his return. Drayden Van Dyke rode him like he needed a start, not nearly as aggressive as he needed to be to win going 5 1/2 furlongs. Now he stretches out to a better distance and Bob Baffert’s runners typically run well when they ship to New York. That said, the value probably won’t be there. There are some others to consider, and the one that intrigues me most is the 3-year-old More Graytful. This colt showed real promise in his debut last year, rallying strongly after a poor start to just miss. He went on to run fairly well in a pair of maiden events before trying stakes company last time. He was no match for a breakout performance from Dream Bigger that day, but he nevertheless stayed on gamely to be second, earning a respectable speed figure. He has the right running style for a race that doesn’t lack early speed and he still has upside in just his fifth career start. I think he’s the right alternative, but I would also use horses like Quickflash and Financialstability, who have previously earned speed figures that put them in the mix.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,8,12