by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 1 - 2 - 9
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 5: 1 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 6 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 7: 9 - 7 - 8 - 3
Race 8: 3 - 9 - 1 - 4
Race 9: 2 - 7 - 9 - 3
Race 10: 3 - 8 - 10 - 4
Race 11: 7 - 10 - 9 - 3
Race 12: 3 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 13: 4 - 7 - 1 - 2
The analysis below is excerpted from the TimeformUS Belmont Stakes Package, which includes wagers and multi-race ticket constructions for today's races at Belmont, as well as horse-by-horse analysis of every stakes race on the card. More information >>
RACE 1: MO GOTCHA (#1)
Potomac will win this race if he maintains his current form off the claim for Carlos Martin. Yet there are certainly some obstacles. He was beating an inferior field when he won for a $50,000 tag just 6 days ago, and he did so with the benefit of a clear early lead through moderate fractions. Martin is trying to strike while the iron is hot, but I don’t want to accept a short price on a horse who is liable to regress at some point. There are a couple of interesting 3-year-old stepping up to face elders. One of those is Principled, who showed some talent in a tough maiden race at Saratoga last summer. He returned last month at Belmont and showed some improvement stretching out to a mile. However, he had to work pretty hard to win that race and might need to do better to reel in Potomac. At a bigger price, I’d rather take a shot with Mo Gotcha. This horse showed a lot more ability than is apparent when he made his debut at Aqueduct in early April. The race earned a slow speed figure, but he accomplished that victory with ease, looking like a horse that would relish added ground. That proved to be the case second time out, as he put forth a vastly superior effort, earning a respectable 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That performance was actually stronger than the final result indicates, since he was tracking 3-wide the entire way over a surface that was favoring the inside path. He has to improve again to beat this field, but he’s reportedly been working well for this race.
RACE 4: RUSHING FALL (#4)
There’s not much to say that isn’t already evident. Rushing Fall is just a neck shy of going undefeated through 8 career starts and she had an excuse in her only loss. She’s the picture of consistency and appears to just be getting better with age. That certainly seemed to be the case when she returned in the Jenny Wiley, as she rated beautifully on the lead and was just toying with her rivals in the stretch. The margin of victory was only a length at the wire, but Rushing Fall was flicking her ears back and forth, waiting on Javier Castellano to ask her for run through the stretch. She’s facing a slightly tougher field in this Just a Game, but that’s unlikely to matter given her apparent pace advantage. Despite racing as a closer throughout her 2-year-old season, she has gradually gained tactical speed over time to the point where she now appears to be most comfortable as a front-runner. She relaxes on the lead far more kindly than she does when she’s behind another horse, so Javier Castellano is likely to send her to the front once again. She is carrying significantly more weight than some of her rivals due to the allowance conditions of this race, but her weight-adjusted TimeformUS Sped Figures still signal that she’s the horse to beat. I’m not one to strongly endorse odds-on favorites, but it’s hard to build a case against this filly.
RACE 5: COME DANCING (#1)
Come Dancing always had a ton of ability, but a series of physical issues and layoffs kept her from producing top efforts through the first half of her career. That all started to change last fall. She put forth a breakout performance in the Royal Delta, proving that she could handle today’s 1 1/16 miles distance while earning a career-best 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. And that was just the start of her current form cycle. The Beldame proved to be too great of a challenge, but she turned right around and gave the classy Marley’s Freedom all that she could handle in a hard-fought Go For Wand. Come Dancing has now returned as a 5-year-old and it turns out that those encouraging performances from 2018 merely hinted at the marvels to come. Her return effort in the Distaff Handicap was utterly jaw-dropping. Sure, she got to set a slow pace and was not beating the best fillies in the division. Yet, the manner in which she drew off through the stretch – throwing down turf-like closing splits over a dead Aqueduct strip – alerted us to the possibility that she might be the best female racehorse in the country. She earned a 135 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, which was actually adjusted down from a raw final time number of 141. Those are the types of figures that we have only seen out of champions such as Arrogate and Gun Runner in recent years. While Come Dancing didn’t run quite as fast next time out in the Ruffian, she still earned a respectable 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is higher than main rival Midnight Bisou’s career-best figure. Furthermore, Come Dancing won by nearly 7 lengths despite blowing the start and having to rush up into a stalking position. As long as she breaks cleanly this time, she is going to find herself on the lead in a paceless situation. She’s meeting a titan in Midnight Bisou, but she gets to face her on her home turf. If both show up with their best performances, I believe the result is inevitable.
RACE 6: DISCO PARTNER (#6)
You have to respect the New York-bred son of Disco Rico any time that he shows up in the entries at Belmont Park. Disco Partner is getting up there in age now as a 7-year-old, and some may dismiss him based on the notion that he’s lost a step. I’m not so sure. This horse has never run particularly well in Kentucky and he sometimes needs a start off the layoff, so I’m not going to hold his performance in the Shakertown against him. He actually didn’t run that badly in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last fall in a race that was dominated towards the front end, and I can forgive him for not firing a top shot in that stakes at Aqueduct, which was basically an afterthought just 3 weeks later. He seemed to be as good as ever when he won this race last year, and he put forth an even stronger performance in the Belmont Turf Championship in the fall, drawing off from a good field to win by over 4 lengths. Getting back to New York seems to have energized this grey horse, as he’s been working like his old self in recent weeks. The key for Disco Partner will be the trip. He has a reputation as a deep closer, but he is capable of sitting much closer to the pace when he’s ready to fire a top effort. He was just 3 lengths off the lead through a 44-flat half-mile split in the Jaipur last year, and he was right on top of the pace in his win last October. World of Trouble is a front-runner, but he’s not a run-off type, so I don’t think he’s going to create a ton of separation between himself and the rest of the field. If Disco Partner is within a few lengths of that leader at the quarter pole, I believe he can run him down. I’ve always been a fan of this horse, and it would be fantastic to see him win this race for a third consecutive year. This time we may actually get a decent price.
RACE 7: CE CE (#9)
Trainer Michael McCarthy rarely ships horses outside of California and typically only does so for major events like the Breeders’ Cup. Therefore, it’s a good sign that he’s showing the confidence to send Ce Ce across the country to compete in an elite race like the Acorn. She has certainly earned her place in this field based upon her first two outings. While she didn’t win by 14 3/4 lengths – as Guarana did – Ce Ce’s debut was something in its own way. She broke tardily and had to wait in traffic behind a wall of horses on the backstretch. She showed unusual poise for a first time starter, seamlessly slipping through an opening on the far turn to challenge for the lead at the head of the lane. She easily inhaled the front-runner and went on to an easy score. She lost her next start as the 1-2 favorite, but she had the misfortune of running into an older rival who exploded with the best effort of her career. The 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure that Ce Ce earned for that race is tied for the highest number in this race, and the figure stands up to scrutiny. The only horse to run back out of that May 11 heat is fourth-place finisher Zusha, who ran 4 points faster in her subsequent start. Ce Ce will be stretching out to a mile for the first time, but she is bred to handle the distance. She’s by versatile sire Elusive Quality and is a half-sister to the millionaire and Grade 2 Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. Furthermore, McCarthy is 5 for 21 (24%, $3.18 ROI) with horses stretching out for the first time on dirt over the past 5 years. This filly may be just as talented as Guarana, and she’s likely to offer far better value.
RACE 8: BORRACHO (#3)
Rusty Arnold tried to stretch out Borracho last fall and he failed to show any improvement at longer distances. They kept running him at route distances into early 2019, but he really seemed to wake up three back when he was given a chance to race over a one-turn mile at Gulfstream in March. He made a strong late rally into a race that was dominated on the front end by Final Jeopardy. His connections then made the wise decision to turn him back to sprint races following that effort, and Borracho has rewarded them with two vastly improved efforts. He actually ran a lot better than it might appear two back in the slop at Keeneland. That race was dominated on the front end and proved to very difficult for closers. Yet Borracho launched a strong rally from far back to get up for third, putting nearly 8 lengths between himself and the rest of the field. The winner of that race Pole Setter returned to win a stakes – albeit on turf – so there was some quality in that field. Borracho then put it all together last time when he rallied for the victory on the Kentucky Derby day undercard at Churchill Downs. He only earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, but I liked the way that he accomplished it. He appears to be working well for this move up into Grade 1 stakes company, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he’s going to get a fast pace ahead of him. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s getting Belmont Park’s leading rider Jose Lezcano aboard.
RACE 9: McKINZIE (#2)
The 2019 older male division has been depleted since the retirements of Accelerate and City of Light earlier this year. Many consider McKinzie to be the leader of the remaining group despite the fact that he has yet to register a Grade 1 victory so far this year. That all could change on Saturday in this Met Mile. McKinzie tried to stretch out to 10 furlongs in the Santa Anita Handicap back in April, and he put in his usual solid effort. However, I think it’s pretty clear at this point that 1 1/4 miles is just a bit too far for this colt. He’s best at around a 1 1/16 miles and the one-mile distance of this Met should be well within his scope. He confirmed that he had maintained his strong form in the Alysheba last time. He only earned a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that victory, but the raw final time figure was an excellent 128 and he appeared to win with some thing left in reserve. He rated beautifully when Mike Smith eased him back off the leader heading into the far turn and he drew off with authority once asked for his best in the lane. He is likely to rate a bit farther off the pace this time given the amount of speed signed on, but he showed that he’s capable of racing as a closer in the Malibu last December. His last two workouts at Santa Anita have been very impressive and he looks poised to deliver another Met Mile victory to the Bob Baffert stable.
RACE 10: ROBERT BRUCE (#3)
To some, it might appear that Robert Bruce has gone off form since a stellar start to his U.S. campaign last spring. He was somewhat unlucky in this race last year, racing in traffic throughout under Tyler Gaffalione and only finding a clear path when it was too late. He followed that up with an impressive score in the Arlington Million, but then things started to go awry. He caught a soft turf course in the Turf Classic and appeared to struggle late in that race while racing wide over a track was favoring horses in the inside path. He was never a factor in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, again contested over soft ground (the “good” rating is misleading). He then resurfaced in the Fort Marcy last time, and of course, the ground came up soft – his third straight start over such going. Robert Bruce just does not prefer turf with a lot of give to it. He’s going to get back on his preferred firm ground in this Manhattan, and he’s stretching back out to his ideal distance of 1 1/4 miles. This horse has not lost any stature in my eyes, but I get the sense that many are taking a negative view of him. While he ran poorly in the Fort Marcy, I was at least encouraged that he showed some improved tactical speed, since his one weakness has been his lack of acceleration. That won’t matter quite as much if he can race a bit closer to the pace than he did last year. Robert Bruce figures to be somewhere around the third choice in the wagering and I think he will offer value at anything close to his 6-1 morning line.
RACE 11: SIR WINSTON (#7)
Many will prefer the well-connected Intrepid Heart out of the Peter Pan, but I feel that runner-up Sir Winston merits serious consideration. Also trained by War of Will’s conditioner Mark Casse, Sir Winston missed the Kentucky Derby after failing to make an impact in the early season prep races. While those results were disappointing, this colt did show some hints of ability along the way. He closed into a moderate pace in the Withers and was flying at the end of the Tampa Bay Derby, only hitting his best stride as those races were concluding. The light bulb finally went on in the Peter Pan. Sir Winston put in an incredible rally to get up for second behind the talented Global Campaign, finishing nearly 5 lengths ahead of today’s rival Intrepid Heart. That race featured an honest pace, yet Sir Winston still ran his final 3 furlongs in a remarkable 35 1/5 seconds, according to Trakus, displaying some of the most impressive closing speed that we have seen out of any 3-year-old in this crop. The fact that his TimeformUS Pace Figure line in the Peter Pan climbs from 101 to 113 over the closing splits suggests that his late rally was hardly a product of pace dynamics. Rather, he was finishing like a turf horse in a dirt race. It’s true that the Belmont Stakes does not typically set up for deep closers, but Sir Winston is a different type of horse than the plodders I would typically bet against in this race. Like Master Fencer, he’s a closer who is not necessarily reliant on pace dynamics to be successful, especially as the distances increase. New rider Joel Rosario was able to elicit a serious turn of foot from this leggy colt last time out, and that effective finishing speed should allow him to overcome a potential pace disadvantage. His TimeformUS Late Pace Rating of 120 is impressive for a dirt horse and second only behind Master Fencer’s 132 (based only on his Kentucky Derby effort). Sir Winston is bred to get the Belmont distance as a son of Awesome Again out of the turf router La Gran Bailadora, herself a daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex. He has reportedly been training better than he ever has before leading into this Belmont, and I’m confident that he can improve on his top TimeformUS Speed Figure of 113 given the added ground. If Sir Winston goes off at anything close to his 12-1 morning line, he’s the right value play in a competitive race.
RACE 13: WAR STORY (#4)
The 2017 winner of the Brooklyn had to settle for second behind the classy Hoppertunity in a tough edition of this race last year. It appears that War Story’s form has gone downhill since then, but you can make excuses for a number of his recent efforts. He chased an extremely fast pace in the Suburban last year and did not perform nearly as badly as his 10th place finish would indicate. He then ran today’s morning line favorite You’re to Blame to a nose decision in the Greenwood Cup before performing poorly in his final two starts of 2018. He took another crack at the Chartles Town Classic in his return from the layoff and placed in that race for the third consecutive year. That event was dominated on the front end and War Story actually did well to pass horses and get up for third. There are reasons to take an optimistic view of that effort and he figures to improve as he stretches out an additional 3 furlongs to his preferred 12-furlong distance. When he’s at his best, he possesses the tactical speed to put himself into the race early, and that versatility could be an advantage given this race’s pace scenario. There’s some appeal to this 7-year-old, and he figures to be the best price of the main contenders. That’s good enough for me.