by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 10 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 13 - 10 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 7: 3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 9 - 3 - 8 - 2
Race 9: 2 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 10: 4 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 11: 4 - 11 - 6 - 8
RACE 1: PACIFIC GALE (#1)
This Vagrancy features the return of two-time Grade 1 winner Separationofpowers. Her 3-year-old campaign was abbreviated, but she did manage to put forth the best effort of her short career in the Grade 1 Test. She arguably might have won her return off a similar layoff in the Victory Ride had she not stumbled badly at the start, so she clearly runs well fresh. Chad Brown does very well with returning runners, though his statistics are better on turf. She possesses the tactical speed to avoid getting pace-compromised in this short field and should take up a position stalking Heavenhasmynikki. She’s pretty formidable if back to her best, but there are some other legitimate contenders. Dawn the Destroyer seemed poised to take this division by storm over the winter, but her form has plateaued since then. She tried to mount her typical stretch rally in the Distaff but could never get close while actually losing ground late. I have doubts about her current form, so I decided to go with the horse who sports the best recent effort, Pacific Gale. She really turned a corner this winter for John Kimmel, picking up a couple of graded stakes placings behind the talented Dream Pauline at Gulfstream. She didn’t get the best trip in the Inside Information two back, but she built upon her prior good efforts when she improved to finish second in the Distaff to Come Dancing, currently one of the fastest horses in the country. Her tactical speed should ensure a good trip. If she repeats that 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure, they won’t beat her.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with ALL
RACE 3: SCIENCE FICTION (#10)
The two horses likely to attract the most support in this turf sprint are Jimi Bags and Enthusiastic Gal. Jimi Bags has performed well at this level in two straight starts without winning, and I suppose she has to be used once again. However, I’m not thrilled with any of her recent efforts. She had no excuse to lose at Gulfstream two back and was just running on belatedly last time in a race that was falling apart. Enthusiastic Gal is slightly more appealing as she returns from the layoff. She put forth some nice efforts at a variety of distances last year. Steve Klesarisis bringing her back at her ideal six-furlong distance, but I wonder if she will need a race off the long break, as she has in the past. I’m interested in an alternative at a slightly better price. Science Fiction finished behind Jimi Bags in that April 11 race at this level, but I thought the Rob Atras filly clearly put forth the better effort. Science Fiction prefers to race close to the pace, so she was badly compromised when she broke a step slowly and was squeezed back. From there, she made a premature, wide move into contention while losing significant ground on the turn. All things considered, she did well to race up into the lead nearing deep stretch before getting overhauled late. She’s not a need-the-lead-type, so if she breaks cleanly, I think she can sit a good trip just in behind some speedy rivals and get the jump on the two aforementioned closers. The other horse I want to use at a decent price is Miss Mystique. She ran well enough to beat this field two back and had an excuse when involved in a fast pace last time.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,6,8,9
RACE 4: INTREPID HEART (#1)
This Peter Pan only drew a field of 5 runners, but there are three legitimate contenders worth discussing. I’m not trying to beat the potential favorite Intrepid Heart. I didn’t quite buy the hype on this horse following his visually impressive debut when he easily disposed of an overmatched field at Oaklawn. However, he won me over with his subsequent score at Keeneland. The runner-up in that event, High Crime, is a talented runner who is very dangerous when able to control the pace up front. Intrepid Heart showed the ability to stalk the pace and had to be hard-ridden into the race on the far turn as High Crime attempted to spurt away and shut the door on the field. Intrepid Heart still looked to be in trouble coming to the final eighth of a mile, but he kicked into high gear late, running down the leader with a strong finish. This colt gives every impression that added ground will suit him and his pedigree corroborates that notion, as he is a half-brother to Belmont Stakes runner-up Commissioner. He gets a class test here, but I believe he’s up to the challenge. His main rival is Global Campaign, who has done little wrong through three career starts. He went untested in his first two starts and was hardly disgraced when finishing fifth behind some solid runners in the Fountain of Youth after chasing an extremely fast pace. He’s talented enough to win this race, but I have some doubts about him getting the 9 furlongs of the Peter Pan. His half-brother Bolt d’Oro seemed to be best at distances of 1 1/16 miles and under and Global Campaign has displayed plenty of speed in his races. I’m using him, but I have a feeling Intrepid Heart is going to prove to be the better horse over time. The third contender is Final Jeopardy, and I wouldn’t completely dismiss this horse despite the fact that he has the most to prove out of this trio. His Wood Memorial was a disaster, as he got completely eliminated in a chaotic run to the clubhouse turn. His prior victory against allowance company was encouraging and that race has been flattered by the subsequent exploits of runner-up Borracho. He’s bred to handle this distance and Servis was high on him before that spoiled Derby prep.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5
Trifecta: 1 with 3,5 with 3,4,5
RACE 7: COMPETITIONOFIDEAS (#3)
Chad Brown has entered a pair of fillies in this race, both of whom figure to be short prices. The classier of the two is Homerique, who makes her first start in this country after racing 6 times in France as a 3-year-old. She came to hand quickly after making her debut, barely missing in the French Oaks (Prix de Diane) in just her third career start. She again collected a Group 1 placing at the end of her season in the Prix de l’Opera, finishing within a length of Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf runner-up Wild Illusion and Man O’ War contestant Magic Wand. Yet the problem is that both of those notable performances came over 10 furlongs, and she’s now being asked to cut back to 1 1/16 miles. I’m not quite convinced that she possesses the speed to win going this short, and she may have difficulty outrunning her more versatile stablemate. I prefer that other Chad Brown filly Competitionofideas. This is a horse who had signaled that she was turning a corner last summer with some deceptively strong performances against maidens, culminating in an 8-length triumph over this course in September. The addition of blinkers seemed to wake her up that day, and she has not lost a turf race while wearing them. The nation took notice of her progress in late December, when she made a sweeping last-to-first move to win the American Oaks in stylish fashion. She’s now returning from a layoff, but she has all the tools to handle this challenge. She possesses a versatile running style, so she’s unlikely to be pace-compromised, and she handles any residual moisture in the ground. I’m not trying to beat her. The one other horse that I would use underneath is Chipolata, who seemed to step forward in her return last time and can potentially work her way into the exacta.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,5
Trifecta: 3 with 5 with 1,2
RACE 8: TIP AT TAPIT (#9)
Likely favorite Varenka is a formidable presence in this spot as she drops back down into the maiden ranks. Graham Motion got very ambitious with her as a 2-year-old, running her in a series of stakes events, culminating in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, all while still a maiden. She was dismissed at 40-1 that day, but she actually ran well with a difficult trip and could have been second under more favorable circumstances. If she repeats those juvenile efforts, or improves in her first start as a 3-year-old, she will win this race. I’m hardly against her in this spot, but much can change over the winter as these horses mature with age. There is one filly challenging the favorite who I think has a chance to take a massive step forward in her sophomore debut. Tip At Tapit looked like a work in progress for Jimmy Toner last season. She was very green while failing to get involved in her debut, where she had the misfortune of running into Newspaperofrecord. She was given plenty of time following that initial start, and returned as a more focused competitor with blinkers added in late November. She actually may have been too focused that day, as she was keen and difficult to handle in the early portions of that race. She ultimately worked out a good, ground-saving trip and just didn’t have enough of a punch in the lane. Yet now she returns over 5 months later with an eye-catching worktab coming into this third start. Toner turned the screws down at Palm Meadows, drilling her in company with older graded stakes horse Dr. Egar in that March 17 bullet 58 1/5 five-furlong drill, and more recently she’s worked well over the dirt. It’s a good sign that John Velazquez takes over the reins again and I’m confident we’ll see a better version of her. Whether that will be good enough to beat Varenka remains to be seen, but she will be a square price.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,4,8
Trifecta: 3 with 2,4,8,12,13 with 9
RACE 10: ARKLOW (#4)
The likely favorite in this international Man o’ War field is Focus Group. This 5-year-old is finally delivering on the potential he displayed as a younger horse, showing a true affinity for these marathon distances. He won his return at Gulfstream in the Pan American, but he had to work hard to do so with a very good trip. I think he’s the horse to beat, but I worry that he’s going to be an underlay. Magic Wand is another short price I would use since she clearly has the class to compete against this group, based on her good efforts in the Breeders’ Cup and Pegasus Turf. I just wasn’t thrilled with her race in Dubai last time, and Aidan O’Brien has poor numbers with females in U.S. turf races (just 2 for 39 over the past five years). There are a couple of viable alternatives at better prices. Channel Maker deserves a look as he gets back to the NYRA circuit. He got the wrong trip in the Pegasus Turf two back and then was far too keen in the early stages of the Mac Diarmida. Joel Rosario rides him well, and he would be formidable if Bill Mott can get him back into the form that he displayed last summer. My top pick is Arklow, who may be the best price of the runners I’m mentioning. This horse took a step forward during the latter half of 2018. He actually ran very well in the Sycamore behind today’s rival Zulu Alpha after refusing to settle and making a premature move to the lead. He was hardly disgraced in the Breeders’ Cup Turf to finish off his campaign, and you can throw out his return race, where he lost the rider. I believe this distance is perfect, and Brad Cox’s runners have been performing very well over the last few weeks in New York.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 4 with 6,8 with 1,2,5,6,8
RACE 11: ELEKTRONIC (#4)
I’m not saying anything too clever in this finale. I just believe that Linda Rice second time starter Elektronic is a very likely winner and would offer decent value at odds of 5-2 or greater. Rice has excellent statistics with second time starters in almost every situation, but she has better numbers on dirt than turf. That said, I get the sense that this colt who Rice owns and trains has a right to do better with a start under his belt. Elektronic threw a fit prior to the start, refusing to go in the gate for a couple of minutes. Once he was in, he ran a somewhat professional race but was spun wide coming off the far turn and closed belatedly over a course that was favoring the inside path. He’s bred to be a talented turf sprinter, since he’s by good influence City Zip and his dam Karakorum Elektra was a 13-time turf winner, who won 12 sprints including multiple stakes. If he steps forward at all, I believe he will turn the tables on Wicked Grin and Qian B C, who are his two main rivals. The other horse who I would use at a bit of a price is second time starter Adios Amigos. This horse was entered for turf first time out, and actually didn’t run that badly when the race was rained off. Yet he’s bred to do better on this surface, since Adios Charlie can get turf runners and the dam was a 3-time turf winner who was clearly best on that surface.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 6,8,10,11