by David Aragona
This Saturday card featuring the Grade 1 Man O’ War is stacked with excellent racing. Competitive fields throughout the day should result in a slew of attractive wagering opportunities, and I've highlighted those that most interest me below.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 2: 9 - 10 - 7 - 2
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 10 - 8 - 7 - 12
Race 5: 7 - 10 - 5 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 7: 12 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 9: 6 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 10: 6 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 11: 2 - 7 - 6 - 1
RACE 2: UNFORESEEABLE (#9) / CAUSEUR (#10)
Maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns are the theme of this race as almost all of the major contenders are taking that class plunge. The one likely to attract the most support is Big Agenda, but I’m not interested in accepting a short price on a horse that has lost by narrow margins in four straight races. The best alternative that I can find is Unforeseeable, who gets back to his preferred surface and receives some needed class relief. He was simply facing much tougher company in all of his prior turf starts. To compound the issue, he did not get ideal trips in any of those starts, as his previous low percentage rider routinely had him positioned wide on the course. Now he’s getting a huge rider upgrade to Luis Saez and meeting the softest turf field than he’s ever faced. I’ll primarily use him with Causeur for Graham Motion. This horse could get somewhat overlooked after having run all of his prior turf races as a two-year-old. He returns from the layoff as a new gelding and has a right to improve.
Win: 9,10
Trifecta: 9,10 with 9,10 with 1,2,7,12
Trifecta: 9,10 with 1,2,7,12 with 9,10
RACE 4: SINGAPORE TRADER (#10)
Linda Rice has a pair of second time starters in this field, and that is her specialty. However, while Scatsuku is probably the one that you want, she doesn’t have the strongest numbers second time out in turf sprints, especially among runners that made their debuts on turf. Nevertheless, it’s hard to get past Scatsuku given the strength of his debut effort. He never saved any ground while racing wide on the turn, yet closed relentlessly through the stretch into a slow pace. If he repeats that performance and gets more help up front, he could be too talented for this group to handle. However, he’ll be a relatively short price and there are others to consider. The horse that I want to bet is Singapore Trader, who returns from the layoff for Todd Pletcher. This horse ran much better than it appears in his only turf start at Saratoga last summer. Breaking from the outside post position in a 10-horse field, he had to be gunned up to contest the pace through swift early fractions. That race was dominated by horses that rallied from behind and Singapore Trader was the only horse involved in the early pace to be around at the finish. He’s a half-brother to Voodoo Song, so he has a right to turn into a nice turf horse, and I actually don’t mind the turnback in distance.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 7,8,9,12
Trifecta: 8,10 with 8,10 with 5,7,9,12
RACE 6: CHRIS AND DAVE (#5)
Patch was overbet in a number of races last year due more to his physical attributes than his performances on the racetrack. While he’s generally been a disappointment from a wagering standpoint, he does indeed have some ability and could very well win this race. The problem is that he’s likely to go off as an underlay once again, despite the fact that he has to overcome a layoff. Fortunately, there do appear to be some viable alternatives. I’m not sure what to make of Mr. Buff and Exulting. If you believe the last race, Exulting is the one you want. However, I find him to be a difficult horse to trust given his overall inconsistency. Mr. Buff had been running competitive races prior to that disappointment last time, but he may find this distance to be a bit farther than his optimal trip. I’m willing to look beyond these two since I don't love the race they're exiting. I want to take a shot with new face Chris and Dave. He obviously needs horses like Patch and Mr. Buff to perform below their true potential, but that’s a distinct possibility given the questions surrounding them. His recent string of TimeformUS Speed Figures make him very competitive with the rest of his field, and he was actually keeping solid company in those Oaklawn races. Horses like Bee Jersey, Blueridge Traveler, and Gray Sky are all talented runners that would be among the favorites in this spot. Robertino Diodoro is effective with runners switching circuits like this and his tactical speed makes him dangerous in a race that features a murky pace scenario.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,7
RACE 7: FOREVER IN LOVE (#12)
Cloontia has to be considered the horse to beat as he drops in class for his initial start of 2018. While he failed to hit the board during the second half of last year, he was running in some very tough spots. While some may view this drop in for a tag as a negative sign, his connections are probably being realistic with a horse that has limited upside racing in open company at this point. He’s very much a part of my play, but there are two other strong contenders. One of those is obviously Mascarello, who got in his prep last time and figures to be a major player in this race if he steps forward at all off that effort. I’m certainly using him, but the runner that really interests me is Forever in Love. Like Cloontia, his connections have dropped him back down to this claiming level now that he has exhausted his opportunities racing in protected spots. He got one chance to race at this level on Nov. 5 before the layoff, and actually put in a fantastic effort that day. The early pace of that race was quite fast as the top three drew off from their competition. Forever in Love was the only horse chasing that quick pace to be around at the finish. Now he returns as a new gelding, and I like him getting back to Belmont Park where he has run well in the past.
Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,3,7
RACE 8: GREAT STUFF (#4)
Skyler’s Scramjet deserves to be the clear favorite. His fourth-place finish in the Carter was not one of his finest efforts, but seven furlongs may be a bit far for him. He will appreciate the cutback to six furlongs here and figures to work out a good stalking trip sitting just behind the speeds. I think he’s more versatile than Westwood, who has run his best races when on the lead and likely will have to deal with the speed of Green Gratto this time. I think the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee may be an underlay in this spot, so I’m mildly against him. The horse who interests me at a price is Great Stuff, who finished just ahead of Skyler’s Scramjet in the Carter back in April. Great Stuff was better suited to the distance of that race, but he did not have the cleanest trip. He was wide around most of the far turn in a field that was tightly bunched and had to wait for room at the top of the stretch. Generally, deep closers like Great Stuff have an easier time in smaller fields, so I’m hopeful that this David Jacobson trainee can avoid the traffic troubles he faced in both the Tom Fool and Carter. His recent losses will drive up his price, so I’ll give him the slight nod over Skyler’s Scramjet.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 2,3,5
RACE 9: A RAVING BEAUTY (#6)
One of the primary features of this Beaugay is the lack of early pace. That actually makes both of Chad Brown’s runners especially dangerous. Likely favorite Inflexibility clearly possesses some tactical speed after winning an optional-claiming race from stalking range in her return at Aqueduct. She showed her class as a 3-year-old, and that recent win suggests that she may take a step forward as a 4-year-old. However, I would not discount Brown’s other horse, A Raving Beauty. This filly has raced primarily in Italy and Germany, but she actually does possess some class. She was Group 1- placed last time (albeit in a second-tier Group 1 race) and has earned Timeform figures of 108 or higher in four of her last five starts. That kind of form puts her in the mix. Furthermore, watching replays of her European races, it’s clear that she has some speed, and she has even led in a few races. This is obviously just a starting point, but I think she could pull off the minor upset. One other horse that should not be totally ignored in this spot is Tricky Escape. She’s run well out of town for low-profile connections and would be competitive with this field if she can transfer that form to New York. However, the lack of pace may work against her.
Win: 6
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,4,7
RACE 10: HIGH NORTH (#6)
Core Beliefs is going to attract attention after losing to undefeated Kentucky Derby winner Justify last time out. The form of that Santa Anita Derby has obviously held up well, as even fourth-place finisher Instilled Regard returned to finish a strong fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Core Beliefs really improved once stretched out to two turns and will be awfully tough for this field to handle if he’s able to repeat the 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned most recently. Furthermore, the expected scratch of the speedy Diamond King could place him on the early lead here. I’m using him, but I want to take a shot with High North at a slightly better price. This Brad Cox trainee has taken a little while to figure the game out, but he’s always hinted at real ability. He got uncomfortable trips in a few graded stakes over the winter, his lack of early speed having caused him problems. However, he looked like a completely different horse last time with the addition of blinkers. He showed newfound early speed under Florent Geroux, aggressively tugging him forward on the backstretch. If he runs a similarly enterprising race here, he should be stalking Core Beliefs. I have no doubt that he can get the distance, and I would not be shocked to see him take another step forward.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,3,4
RACE 11: SADLER’S JOY (#2)
This Man O’ War field is deserving of its Grade 1 status. Many of the top U.S. turf horses have lined up for this 11-furlong test. The two favorites enter with strong credentials. Hi Happy looks like the horse to beat following his visually impressive score in the Pan American at Gulfstream last time. This horse came to the United States in late 2016 after winning a string of Group 1 races in his native Argentina. However, it took him many months to really hit his stride. Since switching to Todd Pletcher’s barn, he’s looked like a new horse. He ran deceptively well in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf two back and showed his true ability when stretched out to 12 furlongs last time. His tactical speed makes him dangerous in these longer turf races, which usually feature moderate early paces. He’ll be tough to run down, but I nevertheless have to bet Sadler’s Joy here at what figures to be a slightly better price. This 5-year-old horse is in the best form of his career. He got very good last summer and has continued his progression. His fourth-place finish in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Turf was quite an accomplishment, and he was an impressive winner of the Mac Diarmida over the winter. His last race may look disappointing at first glance, but he never had a chance to make up ground that day in a race that was dominated on the front end. He should appreciate getting back to Belmont Park. A price of 3-1 or greater would be generous. I’ll also use Call Provision, who got his prep last time and is improving, and longshot Postulation, whose April race was stronger than it appears and who will appreciate the stretch-out.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,6,7 with 1,5,6,7,9