PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 5 - 7 - 4
Race 2:   5 - 4 - 9 - 8
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 4:   5 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 5:   6 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 6:   6 - 9 - 5 - 1
Race 7:   6 - 12 - 13 - 2
Race 8:   7 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 10:   9 - 8 - 3 - 6
Race 11:   10 - 6 - 1 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

This race looks ripe for an upset because the short prices aren’t very reliable. I won’t be surprised if Bold Journey (#8)goes favored even though he’s making his turf debut. This colt is clearly the most naturally talented runner in the field, but there’s no guarantee that he’s going to take to turf. He’s been campaigned as a dirt horse for most of his career, though it’s worth noting that he was entered for turf in that Oct. 1 race that got rained off the grass. The dam’s side pedigree really doesn’t say turf, though sire Hard Spun is a good grass influence. I won’t be surprised when he takes to it, but I don’t need him at a short price. Main rival Ohtwoohthreefive (#9) looks more trustworthy at first glance, but it’s not as if he’s the most convincing win candidate either. He’s achieved a couple of stakes placings in his career, but he still went 0 for 10 last season despite making multiple starts at this allowance level. His loss at the Meadowlands two back was particularly disappointing, and now he returns for a new barn off the layoff. He owns the best turf form, but is another one who I found hard to trust at a short price. Soulmate (#4) makes plenty of sense based on his turf speed figures from last year. However, he’s another that seemed to tail off late last season, and was unable to deliver in the fall even when dropped down to this level. He is catching a weaker field than that off the layoff, and has run well going 7 furlongs before. Furthermore, he’ll be a much more enticing price than the two aforementioned runners with a low-profile jockey named. My top pick is Three Zero (#5). He looks slower than some of his main rivals on speed figures, but he has a few things going for him. He’s a confirmed turf horse, which is more than some others in here can claim, and he’s a 3-year-old who has been improving lately whereas others appear to be on the downswing. He competed in a series of 5-furlong events at Gulfstream over the winter, meeting some decent rivals, and that distance may be a little short for him. I thought he ran two of his best races going 6 furlongs last October as a 2-year-old, which gives me some hope for him stretching out to 7 furlongs here. I like that he’s learned to settle better under Javier Castellano, who retains the mount as the horse returns to New York.

Fair Value:
#5 THREE ZERO, at 7-1 or greater
#4 SOULMATE, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 5

The Godolphin / Charlie Appleby juggernaut looks to continue its success with shippers into U.S. graded stakes races, as they send out likely favorite Warren Point (#2) in this G1 Man O’ War. On form he doesn’t appear to be quite as good as Ottoman Fleet, who last week won the Fort Marcy. However, he’s a progressive sort who appears to be improving into his 4-year-old season. The fact that the connections have chosen him to tackle this Grade 1 assignment is probably a sign of confidence in his ability to move forward again. He was visually impressive with that stakes in Bahrain in February, and he probably should have won the Amir Trophy, when he got shuffled back in traffic on the far turn before running out of real estate in the stretch. Yet the competition in those races wasn’t the strongest and I wonder if he might get overbet based on connections. A few of his main rivals exit the Elkhorn at Keeneland. I’m not inclined to take the top two finishers from that affair, Red Knight (#1) or Verstappen (#4), since both benefited from a quick early pace that fell apart. The most interesting horse from the Elkhorn might be Channel Maker (#3), who was used to press that fast pace and hung in gamely for fourth. He’s won this race before and arguably is at his best going this 11-furlong distance. It’s fair to wonder if he’s still capable of producing a top effort at age 9, but he does figure to be a decent price. My top pick is Soldier Rising (#6). This gelding steadily improved throughout last season, leading up to this Grade 1 placing in the Sword Dancer. He then got somewhat unlucky when stymied in traffic in the late stages of the Turf Classic, where he almost certainly would have been second without late trouble. I don’t want to be too hard on him for failing to show up in the Red Smith to close out last season, since that race was dominated on the front end and he was always out of position. He’s returning at an ideal distance and sports better overall form than most of the runners exiting the Elkhorn. The price should be fair, especially if Warren Point gets hammered in the win pool.

Fair Value:
#6 SOLDIER RISING, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

I acknowledge that Bishops Bay (#9) is very much the horse to beat in this G3 Peter Pan. Florent Geroux comes in to ride him, and he’s run in his first two starts like he might still have some forward progression in him. He showed good early speed in his sprint debut and battled back gamely when challenged late by stablemate First Mission. That rival has of course gone on to win the Lexington, and will be one of the top choices in next week’s Preakness. Bishops Bay cut it even closer last time, but he overcame some adversity, clipping heels into the clubhouse turn before recovering to again dig in for the victory. Each time he's galloped out strongly and acts like a horse that will appreciate more ground. He drew perfectly in the outside slot and should show up with a strong effort. I’m primarily looking at the two Todd Pletcher trainees as possible alternatives. Classic Catch (#5) just got too far back in the early stages of the Wood Memorial last time, but he was closing well in the last half-mile, finishing best of all through the lane. He acts like a horse that will ultimately be suited by even longer trips. This time Pletcher puts the blinkers on to help keep him more engaged. My top pick is the other Pletcher runner Go Soldier Go (#6). I’m not sure about the strength of competition he’s been facing in Dubai, but I do like his efforts in those races. His deep closing running style is not conducive to that Meydan track, so he deserves extra credit from closing for those victories over the winter. His winning performance in the Al Bastakiya was especially impressive, as he was still far back on the turn but launched a relentless rally to get up in time. I won’t hold the UAE Derby against him, since the race just didn’t play to his style. He figures to be suited by the Belmont Park configuration, and I’ll find out if he classes up with these at a decent price.

Fair Value:
#6 GO SOLDIER GO, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 7

I’m pretty much against the short prices in this state-bred $40k maiden claimer. Horses like Your Mission (#4) and Miracle Mike (#3) do very little for me in this spot. The former has run some decent speed figures on turf, but he’s disappointed at short prices and this barn doesn’t do so well off layoffs. Miracle Mike ran well on debut last year, but that was a dirt race and I don’t see the evidence that he’s supposed to turn around his poor recent form on turf. I want to get more creative with some bigger prices. One logical runner that I want to keep in mind is Mama Banned Me (#13), in case he draws into the field. Both of his turf races have been decent efforts where he just gets going a little too late after lacking speed. The drop in class should benefit him and he adds blinkers. However, I’m most interested in a couple of runners trying turf for the first time. Academy Choice (#6) seems likely to handle the surface, being by good turf influence Oscar Performance out of a dam who produced multiple turf winner Morrison. He was never seriously involved in his dirt debut, but he was meant for grass that day and ran like a horse who should handle it. He moves like a turf horse, and I’m confident he’ll take to this surface. We’ll see how good he is and whether he can work out a trip, but he does figure to be a fair price. I also want to use Fast Study (#12), who is another making his turf debut. The pedigree here is less obvious, but the dam did run some of her best speed figures on the turf. His debut last fall was decent, but he subsequently failed to progress on dirt over the winter. Notably that one good effort came over a sealed dirt track, so perhaps that hints at turf inclination. I think switching to grass could wake him up and he should also be an enticing price.

Fair Value:
#6 ACADEMY CHOICE, at 12-1 or greater
#12 FAST STUDY, at 17-1 or greater

RACE 8

I was somewhat negative on Heymackit’sjack (#6), who could take money off some recent speed figures at Gulfstream, especially with Irad Ortiz aboard. Among the logical types, I think the horse to beat is Twenty Six Black (#7), who becomes my top pick after a scratch. He hasn’t yet run quite as fast as some others, but he had a bit of a trip on debut last summer at Saratoga when he got a tentative ride. Then last time he was much the best despite that narrow margin of victory. He was locked in behind the leaders in upper stretch and exploded once he finally got clear in the late stages. He then proceeded to gallop out powerfully into the turn. That’s also race that has produced some strong runbacks, including a third-place finisher that came back to win on turf last week. I also want to use Power Attack (#3), who returns from the layoff for his 3-year-old debut. He showed promise last summer and ran deceptively well in that Nownownow Stakes going a mile, where he set the pace before getting passed by closers, including the talented winner Webslinger. He appears to have done well in Florida over the winter and it’s a good sign that Rosario takes the mount.

Fair Value:
#7 TWENTY SIX BLACK, at 7-2 or greater
#3 POWER ATTACK, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9

I don’t have too many knocks against the consistent Pennsylvania-bred Beren (#2), who has had success on this circuit before, winning a pair of sprint stakes at Belmont back in 2021. He rarely throws in a clunker, though he can sometimes get compromised by a tendency to break a step slowly. That’s what happened last time when he got caught in behind the leaders and was trying to rally up the rail late. He couldn’t quite reel in today’s rival Twisted Ride that day, but he was toting 129 pounds under handicap conditions. He showed his true potential two back when winning impressively again allowance company. He figures to be tough with his usual strong effort, but I’m worried that he could be an underlay with Irad Ortiz aboard. I prefer the defending champion in this race, Drafted (#1). This grey gelding was in great form when he won this Runhappy last year, and followed it up with another stakes win at Monmouth. He hasn’t visited the winner's circle too often since then, but he proved in the Gravesend over the winter that he’s still dangerous when given the right setup. I don’t want to be too hard on him for failing to make much of an impact in the mud last time against what was probably a stronger field than this. He has gotten a brief freshening since then, and is reunited with Jose Ortiz, who is 2 for 2 aboard him. There should be enough early speed in here to set up his late run.

Fair Value:
#1 DRAFTED, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 11

This 6-furlong maiden claimer is another wide open race on a card full of difficult handicapping puzzles. George’s Vice (#4) makes sense as the likely favorite, as she’s getting needed class relief dropping out of an open company maiden special weight event at Gulfstream. I didn’t think she did much serious running in that race, but she’s nevertheless one to consider. Irish Empress (#6) also makes plenty of sense based on her lone turf start from last season, where she closed for fourth behind some talented New York-breds. Her form has since been muddied by dirt races, so she should be a better price. She also may be capable of better now that she’s a few months older. Boss of All (#1) tries the surface for the first time while switching into the Linda Rice barn. She was an MTO when she made her debut last year, so it’s not as if she was meant for turf from the start. However, she does have plenty of turf pedigree, being by Street Boss out of a dam who was a 2-time turf winner. My top pick is Sarah’s Dialed In (#10). This filly faded late in both prior starts last year, but she was going longer each time. She doesn’t strike me as a horse that truly wants route distances, and her debut effort really wasn’t that bad compared to some others in this field. She was never inside during a time when the rail was an advantage that day. She’s now cutting back off the layoff and dropping into a realistic spot. The price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#10 SARAH'S DIALED IN, at 11-1 or greater
#6 IRISH EMPRESS, at 7-1 or greater