by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 3: 9 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 5: 7 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 6: 2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 7: 7 - 9 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 9 - 2 - 8 - 4
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 10: 11 - 10 - 8 - 2
Race 11: 3 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 12: 6 - 4 - 2 - 8
RACE 2: EASY BANKER (#5)
I’m not too scared of the horses that are likely to take money in this spot. My First Gal has had plenty of chances in soft spots and she’s failed to get the job done. Slamin Sami Brown will attract some play merely because she’s going out for Rudy Rodriguez with Manny Franco aboard, but she did no running in her debut. Peggy Sue has the best last race, but she may have appreciated the sloppy going that day. I think all of these fillies are vulnerable and I want to try to beat them with Easy Banker. This filly’s form is not nearly as bad as it seems once you dissect her a bit. She was bet down to favoritism in her first start despite going out for Linda Rice, whose runners typically need a race in their debuts. She chased the pace and tired that day, but was claimed by Chris Englehart and confidently moved up to maiden special weight company next time out. While she lost that April 6 race by over 15 lengths, her effort was actually better than it seems, since she was chasing a fast pace while racing very wide. The 71 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that effort is among the highest numbers in this field. I can throw out the turf race last time and now she’s dropping down to a realistic level. Over the past 5 years, Chris Englehart is 7 for 15 (47 percent, $4.67 ROI) with maidens switching from turf to dirt sprints on the NYRA circuit.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6,7
RACE 3: I’LLHANDALTHECASH (#9)
Bye Bye Nicky is obviously the horse to beat off her last race. She was ready to win that day and got bet like the public knew she was sitting on a huge effort. Unfortunately, she happened to run into a very well-meant first-time starter. My Galina took over from the start and gradually edged away in the lane, yet it’s not as if Bye Bye Nicky threw in the towel. This Dermot Magner trainee is a deserving favorite, but I wonder if we’re going to see as sharp an effort as last time. I’m certainly using her, but I’m not enthusiastic about betting her as the odds-on choice. Her main rival is Brittas Bay, whose only prior turf start came against males at Kentucky Downs last fall. She didn’t run badly that day, and it was arguably her best performance as a juvenile. She seemed like an improved filly in her return effort on dirt last time, and now she gets back to what may be her preferred surface. I’m using both of these runners, but I want to take a shot with I’llhandalthecash. This filly’s debut is not nearly as poor as it seems. She was racing over a legitimately yielding course (not the 5 TimeformUS Track Condition Rating) that many runners found tiring. She probably needed that start, and she’s also just not bred to relish that distance. I liked her 2-year-old sales work last year, when she went in 10 seconds flat at the OBS sale. She’s bred to handle turf as a daughter of Point of Entry, and her dam was a pure sprinter. She appears to be working well for her return for Ray Handal, who does much better with runners who have a race under their belts.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,4,5
RACE 7: DYNAMITE KITTEN (#7)
Classic Lady is a deserving favorite after barely missing at this level last time. While she put forth a strong effort that day, she did so with a perfect trip. Manny Franco saved ground on the turns and angled her into the clear with ample time to run down the leader. She just could not quite get the job done, so I’m reluctant to endorse her at a short price against what is arguably a tougher field than the one she met last time. Barrel of Destiny has to be considered a major player as she stretches back out in distance. She ran a series of competitive speed figures going two turns at Tampa Bay Downs last winter. She disappointed in her return to the NYRA circuit, but the pace did not set up for her going that six-furlong distance. Both of these fillies are strong contenders, but I prefer another runner who is stepping up in class out of the claiming ranks. Dynamite Kitten got quite the trip in her most recent start April 10. She bolted heading into the clubhouse turn as she appeared to overreact to rivals in front of her fanning out across the track. She then proceeded to bear out again as the field came around the far turn. Somehow, despite losing so much ground (111 feet, according to Trakus), she still managed to finish second. This filly had shown some potential on turf at the start of her career, and her connections may have prematurely risked her for a tag last time after a series of dirt races. She’s now back in a protected spot, and she would fit very well against this field if she runs as well as last time. There’s only one turn to deal with here, and the bends in this one-mile event on the Widener are more gradual than at Aqueduct.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,6,9
RACE 8: FORMAL START (#9)
I found this to be a very confusing race, primarily due to the fact that I do not trust the likely favorites. Papa Shot may go off as the public choice, but I’m skeptical that he can win two races in a row off the claim for Charlton Baker. He’s a tricky horse to handle and Rudy Rodriguez had to apply an extension blinker in recent starts to get him to run competitively again. He’s not one that I want at a short price. Blue Belt is even less appealing to me. He had absolutely not excuse to lose at this level last time after setting a soft pace while riding a strong rail bias for the first half of the race. I’m somewhat skeptical that he can negotiate the 7 furlongs. I prefer a different horse out of that same race. Formal Start may get overlooked in this spot after a seemingly poor performance last time, but he did not run nearly as bad as it seems. He was 2- to 3-wide in the early stages against that bias and he just never appeared to be comfortable racing between horses. Formal Start is a fairly large horse with a big stride and he seems to run best when he can race on the outside. This far outside draw is perfect for him and I suspect that he is going to be more forwardly placed in a race that does not feature much early speed. Formal Start is capable of producing competitive speed figures from time to time, and he’s been in deceptively strong form recently. I’ll primarily use him with Analyze the Odds, who should appreciate the cut back in distance as he drops in class for Mertkan Kantarmaci.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,7,8
RACE 9: HIGH COMMAND (#3)
Paynter’s Prize is probably the horse to beat as he drops in for a tag for the first time. He’s earned some of the fastest turf speed figures in the field, but he’s hard for me to trust completely. He is very difficult to ride and tends to fight his pilot in the early stages, often leaving little energy for the finish. I’m using him defensively, but I want to look elsewhere. This feels like a race that could produce a wacky result, since main rivals Awesome Adversary and Impazible Odds are not exactly formidable alternatives. I’m taking a shot with High Command at a big price. This horse showed a bit of promise in his debut, when he raced greenly early and was running on with interest through the stretch. He failed to get involved last time, but I think this switch to turf may wake him up. I admit that he doesn’t have the traditional sort of pedigree that would lead you to believe a surface switch is recommended. Yet his dam is by Pure Prize and she was clearly best on turf despite never winning on that surface. High Command strides out like a turf horse in his dirt races, so I think he’s going to show up with a better effort getting on grass for the first time. The trainer switch to Phil Serpe, whose year is off to a great start, is an added positive.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,7,10
RACE 10: ARCHUMYBABY (#11)
This race will be significantly altered by scratches, as Starlite Mission, Carrera Cat, and Miss Hot Stones are all expected to scratch after having participated in an off-the-turf event on Friday. Those defections completely change the pace scenario, as there is very little speed left in the field. A potential slow pace could work against a horse like Hay Field, who does her best running from off the pace. I’m using her, but I want to focus on horses who will be more forwardly placed. One of those could be Playinwiththeboys, who is getting some needed class relief. She just hasn’t been quite the same mare in recent starts and Charlton Baker is being realistic. She was a winner the last time she raced at this level, and I think she merits respect here. My top selection is Archumybaby. I know she looks a bit cheaper than these at first glance, but I think she’s going to put forth a solid effort today. She showed improvement for Gary Gullo in late March, and then got a terrible ride at this level on April 19, steadying to the back of the pack at the top of the stretch before rallying again outside. She didn’t earn a flashy speed figure in her recent win on May 2, but she had to overcome a very slow pace that day after she was unwisely rated in the early going. This filly has plenty of natural speed, and Benjamin Hernandez would be wise to let her roll away from the gate and place herself in a forward position. I like the outside post position, since she does her best running outside of horses. A price around 4-1 would be fair after scratches.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,5,8,10
Trifecta: 11 with 8,10 with 1,2,4,5,8,10
RACE 11: STILLWATER COVE (#3)
The two fillies likely to vie for favoritism in this Soaring Softly Stakes are Feel Glorious and Stillwater Cove. The former tries a graded stakes race for the first time after going undefeated in her first two starts in this country. She won the Memories of Silver last time over a couple of Chad Brown fillies, but I thought she was somewhat fortunate to win that race. While the pace was not particularly favorable, her main rival, Blowout, had an uncomfortable trip, and Feel Glorious was able to get the jump on her as they sprinted through the lane. The turnback to seven furlongs should not pose a problem given her solid sprint form in Europe, but I feel that she’s facing a tougher task this time. I prefer Stillwater Cove, who ships back to New York for Wesley Ward. This filly’s turf form is pretty strong, and she’s met tougher fields than many of her rivals. She beat highly regarded stablemate Chelsea Cloisters at Saratoga last summer and then couldn’t quite get a mile after stalking a fast pace in the Natalma. She returned in the Limestone Turf Sprint at Keeneland last time, and I thought she put forth a fantastic effort. She stalked fast opening fractions and put away her short-priced pace rivals. She then battled on gamely when challenged late by eventual winner Ginger Nut, pulling more than three lengths clear of third-place finisher Chelsea Cloisters. She must handle the seven furlongs this time, but I believe she’s capable if she runs as well as she did in her Keeneland return. In my opinion, she’s the horse to beat and deserves to be the favorite. The other filly that I want to use prominently is Entirely as she returns for Jonathan Thomas. She ran on well to be third in the Matron after racing too close to the pace while 2- to 3-wide against a rail bias. I was impressed by her prior scores at Gulfstream and she would be dangerous here if she’s improved during the time away.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 3 with 2,7 with 1,2,4,6,7