by David Aragona
Update [9:00 am]: These picks and analyses have been updated for Races 2, 3, 5, and 7 coming off the turf.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1A - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 3: 8 - 4 - 11 - 2
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 11 - 12 - 5 - 3
Race 6: 3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 7: 10 - 6 - 1A - 3
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 9: 5 - 7 - 1 - 9
Race 10: 9 - 3 - 6 - 4
RACE 4: CLOUD CONTROL (#6)
If Major League repeats his April 22 performance going this distance, he is almost certainly going to win this race. He showed uncharacteristic early speed that day, blazing through an opening half-mile in 44 3/5 seconds. All of the pace figures for that race are color-coded red in TimeformUS PPs, and the resulting speed figure was a massive 110. However, Rudy Rodriguez does not have a history of getting these horses to repeat those types of efforts in bottom-level claimers. Over the past five years, he is just 4 for 22 (18 percent, $1.04 ROI) with last out winners in for tags of $12,500 or less at NYRA tracks. I think you have to use this horse defensively, but I’m trying to beat him here. Holding Aces is certainly an alternative, but he’s another one who isn’t necessarily reliable to win two races in a row. I’m trying to beat these runners with Cloud Control. I know that his two efforts since being claimed by Tom Morley don’t appear to be very encouraging at first glance. However, he actually ran much better than it appears in both of those efforts. He was wide around both turns in that turf race two back, and then last time he got embroiled in an extremely fast and taxing early pace duel in his first start with blinkers. He battled with the heavy favorite on the lead for much of the 1 1/16-mile race, and likely caused that one to finish out of the money. The top three across the wire all rallied from well back in the pack. I’ve always thought this horse was better going a bit shorter than that, so I appreciate the turnback to seven furlongs. I’d also like to see the blinkers either come off or get cut back to a shorter cup this time, because they did make him too rank in that May 3 race.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 6: SHAMROCKED (#3)
Based on their recent efforts, I think Flatexcel has to be considered the horse to beat. While the final speed figure did not come up all that fast, he nevertheless ran extremely well within the context of that Apr. 29 race. The pace completely fell apart, as the horses that finished first, second, and fourth were actually bringing up the rear on the run down the backstretch. The horse that Flatexcel dueled with in the early stages finished far back. This Joe Sharp trainee was dead game all the way down to the wire as he battled back inside of the rallying winner. If he repeats that effort, I think he’ll probably win, but the track condition has to be a concern here. There is rain in the forecast, and all three of this runner’s efforts on wet surfaces were relatively poor. I suppose the other horses that will attract support are Daring Destiny and Asphalt Paving, but I’ve seen enough of those two recently. I’m trying to beat them with Shamrocked. I view this as a significant trainer upgrade, since Ray Handal does very good work off the claim. Over the past two years, he is 8 for 38 (21 percent, $3.47 ROI) with new claiming acquisitions. Shamrocked is a horse that clearly has some physical issues, as there have been a few gaps in his form. He’s also prone to drifting badly in the stretch of some of his races. Therefore, I like the addition of blinkers, which may help to straighten him out. I’m willing to excuse his last effort, in which he was just out of position from the start. This time, as long as he breaks cleanly, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be up front in a situation favoring horses on or near the lead.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,8
RACE 8: EVALUATOR (#3)
I think the proper strategy in this race is to play against probable heavy favorite Horoscope. This horse earned a gigantic speed figure last time. Both Beyer and TimeformUS had him running extremely fast, and the number does indeed make sense when placed in context of the rest of the day’s races. However, it has not held up to scrutiny in subsequent weeks. Too many horses were assigned career-best figures in that spot and they have come back out of that race to run significantly slower. If Horoscope actually earned a number about 10 points slower than the speed figures indicate, he doesn't look quite as formidable in this spot. The logical alternative is Calculated Risker. This colt really improved off the claim by Ray Handal last time and seemed to appreciate the added distance. However, Handal does not do quite as well second off the claim and I want to see him repeat that kind of effort before I fully endorse him. There appears to be some speed in this field, since Horoscope is likely to face early pressure from Wicked Macho. Assuming they’re moving quickly up front, I think Evaluator has the best chance to run them down late. This improving three-year-old was overmatched in the Wood Memorial last time and should appreciate the class relief that he gets here. I like that he’s getting back to a one-turn route and he could get somewhat overlooked due to his inferior speed figures.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,7
RACE 10: MISSBIGTIMES (#9) / DOWNTOWN AT NOON (#3)
The horse to beat is Queenofeverything, who ran very well in her second start, contesting a fast pace before just getting nailed on the wire. She earned an impressive 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her effort and if she repeats that performance here, she will be tough to beat. However, there are some others to consider in this spot. One of the wild cards in this field is Missbigtimes, who makes her first start in 11 months. She was facing some nice fillies in her debut as a two-year-old last year and ran much better than the running line indicates, as she was shuffled out of position early and made a wide rally into contention on the turn. It’s taken her a long time to get back to the races, but she possesses the talent to beat a field like this based on her debut effort. She's my top selection. The other horse that I want to use prominently in my wagers is Downtown at Noon. I know that she’s had plenty of chances, but she has actually run very well in the majority of her starts. Her return last time at Belmont was encouraging, as she battled on gamely after contesting an honest pace. She clearly handles a wet track, and there is more rain in the forecast.
Win: 3,9
Exacta: 3,9 with 1,3,4,6,9