PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   7 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 3:   9 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 5:   6 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 9 - 11 - 7
Race 7:   8 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 10:   11 - 15 - 8 - 12
Race 11:   7 - 6 - 9 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

I want to take a stand against Moving Pictures (#7) in this opener. I have no idea how much money a horse like this might take, but he’s not the kind I want to bet. He obviously is the class of the field, but this is a concerning class drop off the layoff. Carlos Martin is an alarming 2 for 30 (7%, $0.95 ROI) with 50% claiming dropdowns over the past 5 years. The logical horse to beat is Dads Good Runner (#4), who handled a wet track when he broke his maiden last time. A repeat of that performance might be good enough against this field. I just want to take a shot against him with Larz (#5) if he gets somewhat ignored in the wagering. This colt has obviously been in poor form, but he didn’t get the right ride first off the claim for Linda Rice, when he was surprisingly rated. This time he figures to get ridden more aggressively on the class drop and I expect a better effort second off the claim for Linda Rice.

Fair Value:
#5 LARZ, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 2

If this Paradise Creek stays on the turf, Charging (#1) figures to attract plenty of support off his visually impressive maiden win at Keeneland last time. He showed speed and found another gear when asked for run at the top of the stretch, kicking away impressively late. However, that was going 5 1/2 furlongs, and now he has to stretch out. I think this horse has plenty of talent, but there’s other speed drawn outside of him, and the waters get much deeper this time. Given the expected pace, Inflation Nation (#3) makes plenty of sense as perhaps the best closer of the bunch. I can’t say that I love any of this horse’s efforts, as he does have a tendency to hang at the end of his races. Yet he figures to be suited by this trip and has the talent to get involved. My top pick is Vacation Dance (#7), who seems like a horse who might have been prepping for this spot last time. Even though he took plenty of money in that race, he was ridden like a horse who might have needed the start. Kendrick Carmouche didn’t show much aggression away from the gate and then was content to work out a 3-wide trip. That was a salty field of older horses, and he had a right to get tired late. I think he’ll benefit from that run, and he showed the talent to compete at this level during his 2-year-old season.

Fair Value:
#7 VACATION DANCE, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 4

This $40k claimer for the 3-year-old fillies looks totally wide open. I think the horse to beat is Curlins Choir (#7), as she makes her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. This filly displayed some likeable attributes in the first few starts of her career before tailing off last time. Yet she seemed to get discouraged chasing outside that day and might be able to rebound for the new barn, especially if the track comes up wet. Luna Loca (#1) is another who makes sense, and she’s getting some needed class relief after facing tougher rivals in her recent starts. I still don’t like the way her form has fallen apart lately, as she hasn’t really been finishing off her races. Given the wide open nature of this race, I want to take a shot with Harlan’s Bond (#2), who could be the biggest price of all. This filly displayed tenacity on debut when she got the job done over next-out winner Clover Street. She then found herself in a tougher spot going a mile where she seemed to get discouraged chasing inside. Now she’s dropping to a realistic level getting back on dirt and I’m hoping she can get a more aggressive ride from the apprentice.

Fair Value:
#2 HARLAN'S BOND, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 5

I don’t have a high level of confidence in this race, but I did want to highlight one price alternative to the favorites. Both Little Demon (#2) and Winter Pool (#5) look formidable on paper, but I have major questions about each of them. Little Demon’s form has completely fallen apart at Oaklawn, and David Jacobson isn’t showing much confidence as he drops him in class for this return to the NYRA circuit. Winter Pool appears to be in better form, but he’s exiting the Linda Rice barn after she handled him like a horse who doesn’t have much upside, resisting the temptation to move him up in class. I want to look elsewhere, and the horse who figures to offer the best value is Jumpster (#6). Some may find it difficult to take this rider, but that’s just going to inflate the price. Jumpster put in a big effort in the mud first off the claim for this barn, and he’s just been in the wrong situations since then. He was used too aggressively to chase a superior rival two back, and then was in over his head last time. He’s dropping back down to the right level and will be a price.

Fair Value:
#6 JUMPSTER, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

It’s been reported that Beguine (#2) will run here instead of the Skipat Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico, and she is certainly the horse to beat against this group. A repeat of her effort two back when she was narrowly beaten by Rossa Veloce at this level might make her too tough for this group to handle. Yet now she’s returning from a layoff and it’s clear that Ned Allard is searching for a soft spot in which to bring her back. I’m just not sure he found it here. Amaretti (#5) is also an intriguing prospect as she steps up against winners for the first time. She was visually impressive breaking her maiden at Keeneland, though I don’t think she was beating much in that spot. All of these runners have strong chances, but I’m interested in Royal Poppy (#3) at a much bigger price. I know she looks slower than most, but she’s coming off layoff, making her first start since February. I won’t be too hard on her for losing to Interpolate in the Ruthless, as that filly came back to finish a strong second in a fast renewal of the Beaumont. Royal Poppy was an impressive maiden winner prior to that over a sealed track. She seems like one who will relish wet going, and she’s getting Lasix for the first time. I project some improvement, and she figures to get overlooked.

Fair Value:
#3 ROYAL POPPY, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

This isn’t the strongest starter allowance affair, so I expect Meraviglioso (#4) will take plenty of money as she makes her first start off a trainer switch to Richard Dutrow, Jr. She’s run well against some tougher company in recent starts, earning a series of speed figures that simply make her the horse to beat. Furthermore, we have already seen two horses switching into the Richard Dutrow barn improve at this meet, so it’s reasonable to project a step forward here. Bustin Lulu (#5)could also take some money as she moves up in class out of a maiden claiming win. However, she was facing a much weaker field that day and was able to dominate that race on the front end through moderate fractions. This is a stiffer test. Icy Reply (#8) ran well to be second at this level last time when she tried to stretch out to a mile. Shortening up should suit her and her form had been heading in the right direction prior to that. I just wonder if we’ve already seen the best she has to offer. My top pick is Carbon (#1), who exits that same May 4 race. She’s another who probably didn’t want the one-mile distance, and will appreciate the turnback to 6 1/2 furlongs here. This filly had been in good form last fall for Linda Rice before tailing off over the winter. Yet I thought she showed some subtle improvement first off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci last time. She seemed to lose focus on the far turn when dropping back, but she then finished up nicely once asked for her best in the lane. I expect her to run a more complete race this time with the blinkers going on, and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#1 CARBON, at 9-2 or greater