by David Aragona
 

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 3 - 5 - 1X
Race 2:   5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 1A - 4
Race 6:   2 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 7:   4 - 10 - 2 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 8 - 1
Race 9:   4 - 2 - 1 - 8
Race 10:   4 - 7 - 5 - 3

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: GRAND BANKS (#4)
I have a feeling people are going to overcomplicate this race, allowing the horse who I consider to be the most likely winner to go off at an inflated price. I suppose Laura’s Patriot could be favored off her recent superior turf speed figures, but I want no party of this mare going 1 1/16 miles. A mile is pushing it for her, as she displayed last time, and she’s not the most trustworthy winning type in the first place. Sundrenched also figures to go off at a relatively short price given that she’s been competitive in three straight turf starts, but she had absolutely no excuse to finish behind Laura’s Patriot last time. That May 3 race was falling apart late and Sundrenched merely finished third by default after a great trip. I’m not particularly interested in either of these runners. In my opinion, Grand Banks is the most likely winner of this race and she’s unlikely to be favored since her turf form is obscured by so many off-the-turf races and bettors may be deterred by her 1-for-25 career record. I would posit that she has actually faced fields of comparable quality to today’s event in the maiden ranks, and she almost always runs well in her turf races. Her top turf speed figures are just as strong as the numbers Laura’s Patriot earns. I think it’s a good sign that she finally broke through with a win last time, as these types can often go on to further victories once they get over that hump. She displayed a turn of foot for new trainer H. James Bond in that Aqueduct start that we had not seen out of her in previous races. While the speed figure came up a bit slow, we saw also-rans Middle Out and Big Expense return from that race to finish first and third here on Sunday, improving their TimeformUS Speed Figures by 9 and 14 points, respectively. Grand Banks should sit a good trip stalking Shak’s Hidden Gem in a race that is not predicted to feature much pace, and I just think she’s going to prove superior to this bunch.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,6 with ALL
 

RACE 6: MENTALITY (#2)
This field is dominated by 3-year-old fillies, and the two likely to attract the most support are Stellar Agent and Chelsea Cloisters. The former filly ran very well in her only prior start sprinting for Jorge Abreu, winning her debut at Saratoga last summer. She was then thrown into some very ambitious spots and handled the class tests admirably, finishing third in both the Miss Grillo and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Her return at Tampa Bay Downs was disappointing, but she did not get the most comfortable trip that day and she seemed to lack the stamina to finish off the race late. This turnback makes plenty of sense, but it is fair to wonder if such a precocious 2-year-old has continued to develop at age three. You can ask many of the same questions about her main rival Chelsea Cloisters, who was also somewhat lackluster in her 3-year-old debut. Sent off as the 5-2 second choice, this Breeders’ Cup runner-up never seemed to be traveling all that well and could not match strides with her stablemate Stillwater Cove in the lane. I’m using both of these runners, but I actually prefer Wesley Ward’s other filly, Mentality. This New York-bred is the only 4-year-old in the field and she has an experience edge over many of her rivals. I take it as a positive sign that Wesley Ward is skipping a state-bred condition to run in this tougher N1X allowance spot. She obviously tailed off late last year and may have been negatively affected by months of wet weather in the New York area. However, she was in great form last summer and returned with arguably the best race of her career off a similar layoff last April when she finished a close fourth after a troubled trip in the Mizdirection Stakes. If she runs as well as that in this spot, she has a strong chance to beat her younger rivals. While others may possess more upside, this filly has earned superior TimeformUS Speed Figures at this point in her career. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be up front with her stablemate in a situation favoring the early leaders.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 4,6 with ALL
 

RACE 7: RIOT (#4)
The two fillies who have run the strongest turf races within the main body of the field appear to be Linda’s Ballet and Flight Night. The former narrowly beat a few of these rivals last time, but she was very green in the stretch and arguably could have won had she kept a straight path through the lane. She figures to improve with added maturity. Flight Night makes her first start against New York-breds after racing against open company in California. She only made one start on grass, but it was clearly her best effort. This filly has an abundance of early speed, but stamina has been an issue for her so I’m somewhat concerned about her getting 7 furlongs in this spot. I would also consider horses like Gunboat Diplomacy, who finished up well in an Aqueduct turf maiden, as well as Lough Na Mona, if she drew in. However, I’m not thrilled with any of the aforementioned runners and I think this race is open to a new face. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with Riot in her first turf start. This filly made her debut on dirt 4 weeks ago and she barely lifted a hoof while finishing last, beaten over 30 lengths. She figures to get ignored here off that dismal effort, but she actually has turf pedigree. She’s by City Zip, who wins with a solid 14% of his first time turfers, and she is a half-sister to a turf winner as well as two other foals who never won but were arguably best on turf. I think we’re going to see a better effort out of this filly on the surface switch and she may not have to be much to beat this bunch.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,7,10
 

RACE 8: TOSSUP (#3)
I’m not trying to beat potential favorite Tossup, who I believe may just be better than this field. This expensive yearling purchase showed great promise in her first couple of starts as a 2-year-old. Former trainer Rick Violette thought enough of her to debut her against stakes company, and she launched a wide, premature move before flattening out. She then came back to finish a strong second behind the subsequently stakes-placed Elegant Zip in her only other appearance at Saratoga. She’s been off since then, but she appears to be training well for new trainer Pat Kelly. She earned a 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her final start as a juvenile, and that’s still the highest number any of these have recorded. With routine improvement and added maturity, I believe she will prove to be better than this group. The other two fillies to consider are coming out of the same race at Aqueduct. Bank Examiner was well meant that day, getting bet down to 2-1 despite showing little in her only prior start on turf. She was no match for subsequent stakes winner Newly Minted that day but ran on well to be second in a very fast race for the level. I prefer her to Doll, who was the slight favorite in that spot. She showed good speed before tiring to finish third and would be formidable if she improves at all on that effort. However, Jason Servis is just 2 for 22 (9 percent, $0.65 ROI) with second-time-starting maidens in dirt sprints at NYRA over the past five years.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,5,7,8
 

RACE 9: POLE SETTER (#4)
Fog of War is clearly the horse to beat as he makes his greatly anticipated return for Chad Brown. He was unblemished in two starts as a juvenile, coming with a late rush to take down a salty maiden race at Saratoga before beating a good field in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine. Fog of War is returning at the right distance, and Brown figures to have him fit off the layoff. It’s going to take a strong effort to beat him, and I’m not convinced that any of the runners with recent turf form are up to the challenge. Therefore, I want to focus on horses switching surfaces. The horse going from dirt to turf who figures to take the most money is Mucho. This colt is obviously talented enough to win a race like this if he transfers his form to grass, but I’m not quite convinced he will be able to do that. He certainly has turf pedigree as a son of the solid turf sire Blame out of a dam who has produced a couple of decent turf winners. However, this colt has not come back as the same runner as a 3-year-old, and this turf experiment is a bit of an afterthought. He’s going to take money, and I prefer others. My top pick is Pole Setter. Unlike Mucho, this colt has run on the turf before, winning his debut over that surface before fading late in a tough stakes at Kentucky Downs. He’s run on dirt in all of his starts since then and notably improved last time out when turned back to sprint for the first time in his career. This gray colt has plenty of sprint pedigree on the bottom side of his pedigree and is also bred for turf as a half-brother to the good turf horse Ice Cutter. Brad Cox is 18 for 49 (37 percent, $2.88 ROI) with last-out winners switching from dirt to turf, and his runners have been running very well in recent weeks at NYRA. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,7,8
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,5,7,8
 

RACE 10: END PLAY (#4)
Final Frontier would be awfully formidable if he were to run back to his final performance of 2018, where he destroyed a good field going this distance on the Aqueduct turf. However, he’s returning from a six-month layoff, and this barn’s runners sometimes need a start off extended breaks. I’m a fan of the horse, and I’m using him, but I think this might be the time to take a shot against him. My top pick is End Play. This 6-year-old gelding won at this level over some of today’s rivals last November at Aqueduct, taking advantage of a hot pace. He then went to Gulfstream, which is not the right venue for him. He’s not quite a five-furlong sprinter, and the two-turn races down there are just too far for him. End Play actually ran better than it seems with some trouble in each of his last two starts. He figures to appreciate getting back to Belmont Park, and he’s suited to this six-furlong trip. As long as some pace develops ahead of him, I think he’s going to come running with his honest late kick at a square price. The other horses to use are Pagliacci, who should appreciate getting back to a more favorable sprint distance after stretching out during the winter, and Battle Station, who ran well in that common race with End Play last year.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,7,8
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 2,3,5,8