by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 6: 2 - 9 - 7 - 8
Race 7: 8 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 9: 3 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 10: 7 - 6 - 4 - 10
RACE 4: ALL CLEAR (#2)
Charnley River is clearly the horse to beat as he turns back in distance. He ran well sprinting on turf in his first few U.S. starts before stretching out recently at Gulfstream. While his last start may look like a step in the wrong direction, he actually ran extremely well considering the early pace of that race. All of the TimeformUS Pace Figures for that April 7 race are color-coded in red, indicating very quick fractions. Charnley River had every right to stop that time, and he figures to improve as he turns back to a more appropriate distance. I prefer him to the other runner likely to take money, Major Force. The Linda Rice trainee just didn’t seem to possess his typical late kick last time, and I’m not convinced a turnback is really what he wants. If I’m going to try to beat the favorite, I want to do it on the front end with All Clear. While this runner doesn’t have obvious turf pedigree, there are actually plenty of turf influences in his bloodlines. His dam never tried turf, nor did any siblings, but his second dam was a three-time winner on the surface. More important, his sire, Country Day, is turning out to be a solid turf sire in a small sample. He’s won with 7 of 35 starters (20 percent) on turf and is the sire of recent turf-sprint stakes winner Will Call. Country Day was an accomplished turf sprinter during his racing career, so this should come as no surprise. All Clear would be dangerous if he can transfer his debut speed figure to grass.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6
RACE 5: ALEX’S LEMON TWIST (#2)
I had problems with this race because I’m just not in love with any of the shorter prices. Polar City and Flatexcel should vie for favoritism as the two speeds. Polar City will appreciate a fast track since his recent efforts on wet surfaces are poor. However, Flatexcel may be in better form. The Joe Sharp trainee ran much better than it appears last time. While the early fractions of that race don’t look especially fast, all of the horses who were up close early faded badly in the lane, except for Flatexcel. This horse has gone this distance in the past, so I’m not that concerned about the stretch-out. The problem is that he was a huge price last time, and he’s going to be among the favorites here. I don’t know what to do with Berger, who drops in class and may not want to go this far. If I’m going to take an alternative to the favorites, I want it to be Alex’s Lemon Twist. He’s one of the few horses in this race with real upside. I realize that his last speed figure makes it look as if he’s too slow, but that may have been a much stronger race than it seems. Seven horses have run back out of that race, and they have improved their Beyer Speed Figures by an average of 18 points. Ucantcatchmybreath, who finished just a nose behind Alex’s Lemon Twist, returned to win his maiden impressively while improving his Beyer by 16 points. Alex’s Lemon Twist may be heading in the right direction, and they’re putting him at a realistic level for his first start against winners.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,7
RACE 6: COLLECTIVE EFFORT (#2)
Appealing Briefs is likely to go off as the favorite once again. He’s consistently run well at this level, but he’s just starting to run out of chances. I acknowledge that his last race was his first start off a layoff, but that was not one of his stronger efforts, so I wonder if he’s starting to tail off. I’m using him defensively, but I prefer others. You can make the argument that Collective Effort is in the same boat, having yet to win his maiden in 10 starts. However, he’s only run in three turf races, and grass is clearly his preferred surface. His return to the lawn last time is worth watching. He was bumped soundly from both sides coming out of the gate, putting him much farther back than he otherwise would have been. From there, he became extremely rank heading into the first turn as he tried to run up on horses’ heels. Manny Franco finally got him to settle, and when he asked him to go in the last three furlongs, he actually responded very willingly. He was clearly second-best that day behind the talented Crossways. This time, he returns in a similar spot and figures to be awfully tough provided that he breaks cleanly.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,7,8,9
Trifecta: 2 with 7,8,9 with 1,4,7,8,9
RACE 7: MENTALITY (#8)
Mentality is supposed to be very tough to beat this race. While her speed figures don’t necessarily point her out as a heavy favorite, I think she deserves to be one based on her overall form. This filly was facing a tough open company field in the Mizdirection last time and actually ran very well to be fourth after a rough trip. She prefers to be placed a bit closer to the early pace, yet she was shuffled out of position moving down the backstretch, going from about sixth to last in the span of a quarter mile. Despite losing all of that early momentum, she actually made a strong late bid in the lane to nearly get up for third. She hinted at having this kind of ability as a two-year-old when she ran deceptively well in the Jessamine after setting a fast pace that collapsed. Wesley Ward had indicated that she improved over the winter prior to that last start and it would appear that he’s correct. Furthermore, every runner that Wesley Ward sends out lately seems to be live. Behind her, I think this race is pretty wide open. One runner that must be used in exotics is Discreet Image, who ran very well off the layoff last time, setting the early pace in a race that was falling apart at the end. She seems to be back in top form for new trainer David Donk. She’s Dreamin is a question mark off the long break, but she exhibited some talent last season. I prefer them to the other three-year-olds, though I do think Purely Lucky has some upside.
Trifecta: 8 with 1,5,7 with 1,2,5,6,7,11,12
Trifecta: 8 with 6,11 with 1,5,7
RACE 9: CURLIN’S HONOR (#3)
I don’t want to make a strong case against heavy favorite Gidu, who I do really respect. This horse ran well in both starts to start the year at Gulfstream, and then put forth an exceptional effort last time at Tampa Bay Downs. The field was really strung out through the early portion of the Columbia Stakes last time, and Gidu was up close the entire way. All of the other runners that were attending that pace came to a stop in the stretch as the closers came charging. However, Gidu found another gear and won in stylish fashion. The 7 furlong distance of this race figures to be perfect for him, and he should sit a stalking trip just outside of the two speeds to his inside. It’s going to take a big effort to beat him, and the one horse that I think might have a chance to take the necessary step forward is Curlin’s Honor. He showed talent in his first few starts despite not necessarily relishing dirt. His connections paid a hefty price tag for him as a two-year-old, so they basically had to give him a chance to be a dirt horse when he began his career. He ran fine in those first couple of starts, but he’s always been bred to do better on grass. He’s a half-brother to 4 turf winners despite the fact that his dam has not been bred to many turf sires. In fact, Curlin is one of the better turf influences with whom she’s been paired. Mark Casse gave him a spin over the Tapeta surface at Woodbine last time, and he seemed to respond well, moving much more freely than he did on dirt as he sped to an easy score. While he went wire-to-wire that day, he’s not a horse that needs the lead. Seven furlongs on grass seems like it should be right up his alley. He needs to improve again to beat Gidu, but he’s the one that still has upside.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 4,5
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 2,4,6