PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   1 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 9:   3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 10:   6 - 7 - 9 - 10

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

This compact field has attracted a pretty competitive group despite only sporting 5 betting interests. The West Point entry of Dripping Gold (#1) and Q F Seventy Five (#1A) figures to vie for favoritism, but I’m against both of them, especially at a short price. They’re each moving up from N1X victories where they got perfect trips, and the waters get much deeper here. I think the horse to beat is Portfolio Company (#4) and could get him if he doesn’t go favored. I like the rider switch back to Joel Rosario, since Irad Ortiz may be have been overconfident when he rode this horse last time. He advanced willingly to the top of the stretch, but was ridden without much urgency until it was too late. I also like the way Rosario has gotten this sometimes headstrong horse to relax when he’s ridden him, producing some of his better finishes. He has versatility that should allow him to work out a trip in this small field. Space Launch (#5) had a valid excuse when last seen on Nov. 19, since he raced 3-wide around both turns. However, he might need a start off the layoff and won’t be much of a price with Irad Ortiz taking the mount. Daunt (#2) would be the other horse that interests me. He ran pretty well off the layoff in a thinner field than even this one. I expect him to run well again, but I still would prefer to see him going a bit longer down the road.

Fair Value:
#4 PORTFOLIO COMPANY, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 5

Utilization Rate (#6) will probably go favored again based purely on connections, even though her form doesn’t give her much of an advantage over this field. She was an extremely short price as part of an entry last time against what appeared to be a weaker maiden field than this one. Yet she was unable to hold on that day, and she’s going to be a short price again with Irad Ortiz getting back aboard. I much prefer Doral (#4) among the shorter prices. This filly showed some talent on debut when she made a menacing late rally to just miss. She hasn’t really stepped forward since then, but I didn’t love the trip she got last time at Keeneland when she was always out of position. This imposing filly has the natural ability to win a race like this if she can put it all together. One key feature of this race is an apparent lack of pace. Utilization Rate is shown leading on the Pace Projector, but I wonder if Chad Brown will be reluctant to send her forward again given the way she failed to hold the lead last time. I believe Mirabella (#1) could get sent to the front from her rail draw. This filly showed some ability on debut last year at Monmouth, only hitting her best stride late in that 5-furlong affair before galloping out powerfully. She was off for a long time thereafter, but returned on turf last month at Gulfstream with a decent effort. She actually broke very sharply and was contesting the pace into the clubhouse turn before others showed more initiative. While no match for the winner that day, she kept trying gamely through the finish in a race she might have needed. She figures to be ridden more aggressively from her advantageous rail draw this time, and I suspect she’s better than the form indicates.

Fair Value:
#1 MIRABELLA, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 7

The Soaring Softly didn’t draw the largest field, but there appears to be some talent among these 6 fillies. Love Appeals (#2) is obviously the horse to beat off her dominant allowance score last month, for which she earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She seems well suited to this distance, whereas some others still have to prove that they can be effective sprinters. My problem is that she’s likely to be a very short price now that her form is exposed, and I think some others possess more upside. My top pick is the other Christophe Clement runner Queen Picasso (#4). She won going longer on debut at Gulfstream, but that’s come up a very strong race. Multiple horses have come back to improve their speed figures, including the pace-setting runner-up, who won her next start with a 105 TimeformUS figure. This filly has good positional speed, which should allow her to work out a forwardly placed trip in a race that features a murky pace scenario. She’s also bred to handle this cutback in distance, being a half-sister to a Group 1 Prix de la Foret winner. The other filly who I would use at a bigger price is Quarrel (#5). She has some things to prove as she returns from a layoff for a barn not known for gearing horses up off extended breaks. However, she showed some grit to break her maiden on turf last year, earning a speed figure that makes her competitive here. She also ran very well sprinting on debut, so perhaps this shorter distance will actually work better for her. I’m happy to find out at a square price.

Fair Value:
#4 QUEEN PICASSO, at 4-1 or greater
#5 QUARREL, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 10

Perhaps I’m overcomplicating this finale by exploring alternatives to prohibitive favorite Loon Cry (#9). I recognize that she’s the horse to beat, but I’m just not thrilled with her at a short price. She got a great trip in her lone turf start at Aqueduct, sitting just off a moderate pace, and was unable to forge past the leader late. The winner of that race is pretty good, as she came back to run well against winners with a favorable trip. I just thought others would offer better value. Autumn (#7) is perhaps the most interesting runner out of that Loon Cry race on April 8. She clipped heels and fell in any ugly stretch incident, but it did appear that she had some run and was going to have a say in the outcome at the time she encountered that trouble. I expect her to run well, but she took money on debut and I wonder what kind of price she’ll be here. I want to give another chance to Lakeside Getaway (#6) as my top pick. She didn’t show up last time, but she’s going out for a barn that can be a little random at times. I thought this filly had shown some nice progression at Gulfstream over the winter. She ran a lot better than it looks in that Jan. 8 maiden race where she had significant trouble before running on late. And then she contested an extremely fast pace that fell apart on March 16, holding on well for fourth. This 7-furlong distance is supposed to be better for her, and now she’s going to be a much more enticing price off that disappointing result last time.

Fair Value:
#6 LAKESIDE GETAWAY, at 7-1 or greater