by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 9 - 16 - 11 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 8 - 2
Race 5: 13 - 8 - 15 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 5 - 3 - 8 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 8 - 10 - 6
Race 9: 13 - 15 - 1 - 14
Race 10: 2 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 11: 8 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 12: 4 - 2 - 1 - 9
RACE 1: SWIPING DAN (#1)
I suppose the horse to beat is Special Story. This 7-year-old gelding has significantly improved since getting claimed by Greg DiPrima in January. He’s picked up a few checks while facing significantly tougher company than he meets today. However, this drop in class back to the $14,000 level is somewhat curious given his current form. I also think it’s noteworthy that all of his recent success has come at a mile and he’s now cutting back to 6 furlongs. This distance has historically been short of his best trip, so I’m somewhat skeptical that we will see a top effort in this spot. His main rival appears to be Thefinalcrazydude, who is certain to be in front of these early as long as he breaks cleanly. The question is, for how long will he lead them? He’s certainly capable of going gate-to-wire at this level, but he has a tendency to go too quickly up front and leave nothing for the finish. I’m using both of these, but I want to get a bit more creative in this spot. I’m taking a shot with Swiping Dan at a price. This horse actually ran fine for the new connections in his first start off the claim back in March, rallying past Thefinalcrazydude in the late stages. His most recent performance was a disaster, but he’s never been best going a mile and Rajiv Maragh basically eased him at the quarter pole, exaggerating the margin of defeat. At least he’s now coming back in 3 weeks for a barn that has done very well over the past few months, hitting the board with 8 of their 11 starters. Furthermore, he’s one of the few runners in this field who actually seems to move up on a wet track.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,7
RACE 4: LADY MONTDORE (#1)
There is at least half an inch of rain in the forecast for Saturday, so the Sheepshead Bay may be contested over yielding ground. That should not be a major issue for the favorite, Santa Monica, who seems to handle any type of going. She’s returned in solid form at Gulfstream Park this winter, but she was not facing the best runners in the division in those two Grade 3 events. She was unlucky to lose this race last year and seemed poised to have a big season after that, but she never really took that next step forward. I believe she’s the one to beat, but I don’t view her as a standout in this field. Defending champion Holy Helena got back on track in her most recent start, benefiting from Santa Monica’s absence to win The Very One. However, she is one of the few runners in this field who really seems to need firm ground to produce a top effort, as her races over good and yielding going are decidedly subpar. I’m taking a shot against these mares with Lady Montdore, who returns for her 5-year-old season in this spot. She made a splash at Saratoga last year, reeling off a pair of victories over “good” courses, including a victory over Santa Monica in the Glens Falls. Some viewed her as a fortunate winner that day due to the slow pace, but this mare should not be underestimated. She backed up those efforts with a third-place finish in the Flower Bowl before ending her season on a sour note. She’s proven that she runs well fresh, and she may play out as the controlling speed in a race that lacks any confirmed front-runners. Kendrick Carmouche seems like an excellent fit.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6,8
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6,8 with ALL
RACE 6: SPARTICLE (#1)
Mr. Dougie Fresh is going to go off as a prohibitive favorite in this spot, and he is clearly the most likely winner. While I acknowledge that he merits some respect, I don’t fully trust him. He put together some solid performances in his first couple of starts off the claim for Jason Servis, but he only improved marginally on his final effort for Kiaran McLaughlin. Some may view his last race as confirmation of his prior form, but I think he subtly took a step backwards in the Caixa Eletronica. He was supposed to win that race as the 8-5 favorite, and the 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he was assigned for the performance hardly makes him formidable against this group. I won’t be surprised if he wins, but I also won’t be shocked if we’re talking about how his form has gone south after this race. The problem with this field is that there are not many obvious alternatives. I don’t trust Runaway Lute, who has never gotten back to the form we saw in the middle of last year and notoriously despises wet tracks. No Distortion is somewhat interesting as he turns back in distance, but his best race may not be quite good enough. Therefore, I’m looking outside the box and taking a shot with Sparticle at a big price. I know some may find it difficult to support these Parx-based connections, but I’m looking past that given that it’s Derby day and many top barns and riders are out of town. Sparticle ran very well to win an optional claiming race in the mud at Parx back in October, earning a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He then followed that up with a deceptively strong effort in the City of Laurel, in which he chased a suicidal pace in a race that collapsed. He disappointed at Gulfstream when last seen in December, but he was hindered by a poor start that day. There is other speed in this field, but you can be sure that Kendrick Carmouche will be aggressive from the rail on this colt. If he gets in front over wet going, I think he can outrun his odds in this spot.
Win/Place: 1
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 3,4,5,6
Trifecta: 1,7 with 4,5,6 with 1,7
RACE 8: HOT DIGGITTY (#5)
Invest is clearly the horse to beat as he attempts to break his maiden after losing via disqualification last time out. Linda Rice has started him at a mile three times and now is turning him back to 6 furlongs, a move that has probably been prompted by his improving early speed. However, I’m reticent to support a prohibitive favorite trying something for the first time. Furthermore, this horse has some quirks to him and has been known to get in his own way at times. Some may view his main rival as the Chad Brown first-time starter, Financialstability, who debuts as a 4-year-old. This gelding sold for nearly $300,000 at the OBS sale two years ago and has taken a long time to get to the races. He does have some pedigree, since his dam was Grade 2-placed and is a full sister to Grade 1 Test runner-up Pretty Prolific. I’m using him prominently, but I think there are better options at more enticing prices. My top selection is Hot Diggitty, who returns from a lengthy layoff. Jeremiah Englehart has excellent statistics in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 9 for 23 (39 percent, $3.93 ROI) with maidens coming off breaks of 120 to 240 days in dirt sprints. This horse ran better than it seems in his debut and then took a nice step forward second time out, closing well in a reasonably fast race. His final effort of 2018 was disappointing, but he did not get an ideal trip that day. If he has taken a step forward with natural maturity, he’s a viable alternative to the favorite.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,8,10
Trifecta: 5 with 8,10 with 3,4,6,8,10