by David Aragona
Kentucky Derby day has arrived! Obviously, we will all be paying close attention to the action at Churchill Downs this afternoon, but you don’t want to miss out on a fantastic Saturday card at Belmont Park. There are 12 races on tap, topped by the Grade 3 Westchester (Race 11) featuring the return of last year’s Preakness winner Cloud Computing. There’s also great turf stakes action earlier in the day as competitive fields line up for the Sheepshead Bay (Race 6) and Fort Marcy (Race 10). Most importantly, I found there to be excellent wagering opportunities throughout the card, and I’ve highlighted my top plays below.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 2: 9 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 8 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 9 - 1 - 8 - 4
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 7: 6 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 8: 10 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 9: 5 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 10: 1 - 3 - 8 - 7
Race 11: 2 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 12: 10 - 11 - 4 - 1
RACE 2: HOKULEA (#9)
This is a highly competitive and confusing group of maiden claiming runners. You can honestly make a case for nearly two-thirds of the field, but I’ll focus on a few. Among the shorter prices, Grand Valour is obviously the horse to beat. Linda Rice isn’t afraid to risk these types on dirt over the winter, so I don’t view it as a major negative that he ran for $25,000 in December. He’s back on the right surface here and just makes sense at a short price. You can say similar things about Causeforcelebration, who ran well enough in his two turf sprints last year and drops in for a tag on turf for the first time. I’ll use both, some larger prices interest me as well. I think you have to include first time starter Desert Lights. While there’s not overwhelming grass pedigree, he’s a half to a turf winner and Mike Maker has good numbers debuting in turf sprints at NYRA. However, my top selection is a horse that’s only raced on turf once before. That’s Hokulea, who gets back on grass for the first time since last November. That day, he was taken far back off the early pace in a race that mostly held together on the front end following slow early fractions. Considering the race flow, I thought he ran on decently well at the end of that race, appearing to at least handle turf. Since then, his two best races have come on sealed dirt tracks, which is sometimes indicative of turf ability. He intrigues me getting back on this surface and the price should be generous.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,5,7
RACE 4: LADY SUEBEE (#1)
Misericordia is an unusual filly. She’s bred to run all day, and her connections understandably focused on longer races early in her career. The turnback to a sprint last time seemed like a desperate move, yet she got bet like she couldn’t lose and ran accordingly, exploding with a huge win. Alan Goldberg does not have very strong numbers off maiden wins on turf, and this filly is going to be a short price. On the other hand, she has real talent based on that last race and is a major threat. You also have to respect the recent Chad Brown acquisition Guerriere, though I wonder if this race is a bit short for her. The problem with many of the others is that they come from off the pace. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and Lady Suebee figures to be the clear speed in this race. While I’ve never been her biggest fan, she does have some legitimate turf pedigree. First Defence is a 15 percent turf sire, and Lady Suebee is a halfsister to three turf winners. The best of those was Mutual Force, who earned $300,000 racing primarily on grass overseas. She needs to improve slightly to beat this field, but her pedigree indicates that it’s a distinct possibility.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,7,8
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 2,3,4,7
RACE 6: ESTRECHADA (#5)
Between the two favorites, I strongly prefer Holy Helena to Santa Monica. The latter runner is going to take money because she’s trained by Chad Brown and registered a blowout win at Keeneland last time. However, that was basically a starter race branded as an N2X allowance. While runner-up Peru, who is also in this race, has run faster speed figures in the past, she doesn’t want to go this far and got a ridiculous ride that day. Nobody else showed up. This barn seems to get them all to run well, but I’m not a fan of this mare. Holy Helena makes plenty of sense at a short price. Jimmy Jerkens has great numbers with horses coming off wins in turf routes, and she should have no trouble handling the distance. However, I don’t think her margin for error is that great, and I respect the races that Estrachada was running in New York last year. If she can get back to that form, she’s a major player in this race. Her return at Santa Anita in January looks a bit disappointing at first glance, but she got a somewhat uncomfortable trip. I like that she has tactical speed in a race lacking much pace, and I think she’s the one who will offer value.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 4,6,7
RACE 8: BATTLE JOINED (#10)
This is one of the most competitive races on the card, and it would become even more confusing if either of the also-eligibles draws into the field. You have to respect My Bronx Tail, who ran well in her only turf start last year and was scratched at the gate a few weeks ago. Sensible Myth ran well in her turf sprints in California and could get overlooked here. The firster Competitionofideas has to be respected for dangerous connections. I’m using all of them, but the horse I want to bet at what should be a square price is Battle Joined. This filly actually ran well in both of her starts at Belmont last year. She set a fast pace in the slop last May 5 and then was again part of an honest pace on turf May 27. In that last start, she was dueling with Vigor early, and that filly went on to do some nice things immediately after that race. The winner, Rubilinda, is a stakes-quality runner. It’s likely that Battle Joined finds herself in an easier spot this time, and she’s showed that she can run well fresh.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,5,8,13
RACE 9: PHI BETA EXPRESS (#5)
The two runners likely to attract the bulk of support are Patternrecognition and Wonderful Light. The former is a deserving favoring after registering a fast allowance win last November. That victory was long overdue after this horse had the misfortune of running into a series of talented runners in his prior attempts against winners. Wonderful Light also ran into a good horse in his first start against winners on Jan. 20 and actually ran quite well to be second despite racing wide against a rail bias. However, his next start at Laurel was a bit underwhelming, and horses have returned to run poorly out of that race. Nevertheless, he’s a contender. I’m trying to beat these two with Phi Beta Express, who should be a more attractive price. The Pace Projector indicates that there isn’t a ton of speed in this race, and he figures to get loose early. His race against Skyler’s Scramjet back on Sept. 20 was excellent, and he earned a field-best 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort. He faded last time, but he had a right to get tired after contesting a fast-paced opening quarter-mile. Danny Gargan got him to run well fresh last July, and six furlongs is the perfect distance.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 4,6,8
RACE 10: ROBERT BRUCE (#1)
There’s a lot to discuss in this excellent renewal of the Grade 3 Fort Marcy. Chad Brown has three runners in the field, the most accomplished of which is Silverwave. This French-bred 6-year-old has achieved some impressive results during his career, winning the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in 2016, and finishing ahead of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Talismanic in June of last year. His 2017 campaign ended on a sour note, as he failed to handle soft ground in either the Prix Foy or Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. He was privately purchased at the end of last season and now resurfaces in Chad Brown’s barn. While he may be the most talented horse in the race, this seems like merely a jumping off point for a runner that probably wants to go farther than today’s 1 1/8 miles distance. Nevertheless, he must be used. I actually prefer his Chad Brown stablemate Robert Bruce, who is a rare Chilean import. This horse clearly was on the precipice of some noteworthy accomplishments in Chile. Even though he barely raced as a full three-year-old (he is an October foal), he already conquered 4 Group 1 victories in his home country. Watching some of his South American efforts, it does appear that he possesses real talent. He overcame a rough stretch drive to win last time after losing momentum with less than a quarter mile to go. A few years ago, we saw Chilean star Il Campione (who won a few of the same races as this horse) come to the U.S. and run a competitive race in the Grade 3 Poker before heading to the sidelines. It seems that Robert Bruce has been working well coming into this race, and the distance should not be a major obstacle. He’s my top pick, but I want to use him in conjunction with some of the more familiar faces. Blacktype always seems to run well in spots like this, and his tactical speed should make him awfully dangerous here, as he projects to get the jump on some of the deep closers. Spring Quality ran well to win the Red Smith last fall and he, too, is able to race up close to the early pace. He may ultimately want to go farther than this, but he’s another that’s worth including in exotics.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 3,8 with 2,3,5,7,8
RACE 12: MICKEY T (#10)
I’m not against the likely favorite Pence in this race. Linda Rice actually has very good numbers with horses going from dirt to turf in maiden claiming races, and this is the surface on which he belongs. It’s just that he’s going to be a very short price and he doesn’t really have that much ability, even on grass. Looking for alternatives, horses that you have to consider include Burkie, who ran well in his only turf sprint at Saratoga last summer, and Can’tweallgetalong, who finally gets a chance to sprint on turf after improving in recent starts on the main track. I’ll use them both, but I see an intriguing runner at a massive price that I need to throw into my plays. Mickey T has been on turf before and those races were awful. However, both of those efforts did come against maiden special weight company right at the start of his career. He was extremely green in both races and just didn’t appear to have his mind on running. Since then, he’s turned things around to an extent. After two similarly unfocused efforts on dirt, he ran two significantly improved speed figures in March. Those better efforts coincided with the addition of Lasix. I’m particularly encouraged by his last race, in which he seemed to finally get the hang of racing. I think it’s worth giving this horse some leeway because he actually does have a turf pedigree. Courageous Cat is a turf sire and his lone full sibling was a turf winner. If he moves forward off his last race with the switch to grass, he can be in the mix here at a huge price.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,4,11