PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 3:   1 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 4:   6 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 5:   8 - 2 - 1 - 10
Race 6:   3 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 8:   8 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 9:   4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 10:   1 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 11:   1 - 11 - 13 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

Both likely favorites make some sense in this $40k maiden claimer. Kara Para (#5) ran fine last time against a tougher open company field. She was 3-wide on the turns and stayed on decently, but never really looked like she had a chance to win that day. This is the right kind of spot, but she does lack some turn of foot. Red Hot Chick (#7) put in a nice turf effort last September when she first got on the surface. Then last time she just ran out of real estate in a speed dominated race off the layoff. Stretching out shouldn’t be an issue, but you do have to take a short price finding out if she can handle it. My top pick is Bernt Again (#6). Her prior turf starts from last summer and fall might not seem that great on paper, but she ran better than it appears in a few of those races. She was wide against a rail bias on Sep. 18 and then got an oddly tentative ride on Sep. 15, but finished well when asked. She again caught a rail bias on Oct. 8 and was wide all the way around the track. Since then she’s improved overall in her dirt starts, but I still think turf is her preferred surface. I expect better today.

Fair Value:
#6 BERNT AGAIN, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4

I have some reservations about both horses who could take money in this New York-bred allowance affair. Pineapple Man (#2) looks appealing based on the TimeformUS Pace Projector, where he is shown as the clear early leader in a situation favoring the front-runner. However, I wonder if this is just a prep for something longer. We saw Mike Maker recently bring back a horse of similar ability, Rotknee, who needed a start coming off the layoff. His overall numbers with this move are decent, but I suspect this could just be a prep for something longer. I’m a little more against Zeebear (#7), who will attract support based on a starter allowance victory last time. The race earned a solid speed figure, but Zeebear had so much working in his favor that day. He closed into a wicked pace and also stayed in the outside paths on a day when the rail was a disadvantage. I’ll be surprised if he runs as well this time. I think there are a couple of interesting alternatives. My top pick is Radio Red (#6). This horse showed some hints of ability in his first couple of starts. He ran deceptively well in his return in January when getting a tentative ride in a race that looked like a prep. He then took a big step forward to break his maiden on Feb. 9, putting forth an effort that makes him competitive here. They tried the Gotham last time where he was overmatched, and he ended up chasing a fast pace that fell apart. I like the turnback and he still has upside as a 3-year-old facing older rivals. I could also use Braciole (#1). The expected pace of this race might not suit him as well, but he ran better than the result indicates last time when he was racing too close to a bad rail in a race dominated on the front end. He’s otherwise been in strong form and should run well here at a square price.

Fair Value:
#6 RADIO RED, at 7-2 or greater
#1 BRACIOLE, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 5

There’s no denying that Ortus (#2) is very much the horse to beat as he drops in against New York-bred company. He actually met a pretty tough field on debut, as Exact Estimate came back to run very well against winners, and runner-up Oglethorpe won his next start on dirt. Ortus lacked some punch in the stretch that day, but he didn’t finish too far behind some talented runners. Now he’s meeting a much softer group and is clearly a deserving favorite. I just want to take one shot against him with a horse who I think could still be underrated. Battleoflexington (#8) might look like a dirt horse at first glance, but I don’t think he was seriously intended to excel at 5 furlongs on debut in his lone turf start. He was a big price that day and ran like he was just out for some experience. He has since improved significantly with added ground, and they intended to get him back on turf in his second start. I thought he ran deceptively well last time in his return at Aqueduct. The inside was not the place to be, and he was guided down to the rail in the stretch when launching his rally. He actually finished up strongly all things considered. Now he’s switching back to grass and I like him getting on this surface. He moves like a turf horse, and he’s by a low-profile turf influence sire, War Correspondent.

Fair Value:
#8 BATTLEOFLEXINGTON, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

I don’t have any major knocks against Anaconda (#1), other than the fact that he’s likely to be a short price in a race that came up pretty soft for the level. He ran fine last time when just unable to reel in the loose on the lead Big Everest in short field. He obviously handles shorter distances and might actually benefit from this slight turnback to 7 furlongs. He drew well and is perfectly logical. A few of the alternatives to this favorite are exiting the optional claiming event on Apr. 13 won by the talented Nothing Better. Voodoo Zip (#3) and Thin White Duke (#5) were both attempting to close in the late stages that day, both making their first starts off layoffs. Yet I thought they each came up a little flat in the last furlong. I’m more interested in Yes and Yes (#8) from that race. He didn’t get his preferred trip, as he wasn’t aggressively ridden early, and then got hung out 3- to 4-wide on the turn. Despite that uncomfortable journey, he still closed well through the lane to get up for fourth. He should be sharper second off the layoff, and 7 furlongs is clearly his best distance. He’s had much more success over this Belmont turf course than anywhere else, and he figures to be a square price.

Fair Value:
#8 YES AND YES, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

There’s no denying that Ottoman Fleet (#3) is a likely winner of this Fort Marcy if he’s able to transfer his overseas form to Belmont on Saturday. He showed real talent when he impressively won a stakes last October at Newmarket and then returned to the same winner’s circle last time when he got back a winter campaign in Dubai. Charlie Appleby’s record on U.S. soil speaks for itself, and this gelding appears to have come over for a prep prior to targeting next month’s Grade 1 Manhattan. I prefer him to some U.S.-based runners who could take money. Among those, City Man (#6) is the most accomplished. He was in great form last year, winning a pair of graded stakes, including the Fort Lauderdale on New Year’s Eve. He went off as the slight favorite in the Pegasus World Cup Turf last time, but got a disastrous wide trip and crossed the wire last. He’s obviously better than that and can rebound here. This just came up as another tough race. The only price horse that I can get interested in is Fort Washington (#4). He breaks slowly from the gate every time, so that’s obviously an issue. However, Belmont can sometimes be a little kinder to horses like this. I thought he was primed to run some winning races in each of those last two starts, but Gulfstream just doesn’t suit his style. Nevertheless, this horse has shown some significantly improved form over last year, and might be sitting on a career top third off the layoff.

Fair Value:
#4 FORT WASHINGTON, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 10

Kathleen O. (#5) has lost four in a row since going undefeated through her initial four starts to begin her career. One of those was the Kentucky Oaks, so let’s not hold that against her. Yet since returning late last year she’s finished second three times at very short prices. She figures to be bet heavily again here. Yet she once again finds herself in a race that lacks a strong pace, which makes things difficult for a deep closer. She might be the most talented horse in this field, but she’s hard to take at the expected odds. Some may look to Idiomatic (#4) as a new face, and I do think this filly has quite a bit of talent. I’m just not sure this one-turn mile is the right distance for her. She looks like one that wants every bit of distance she can get. Brad Cox must realize that, since he ran her 10 furlongs over the winter. Yet this is the spot that came up, so they’re taking a shot. I want to go in a different direction with Pass the Champagne (#1). This filly was precocious early on and gained some support in the 2021 Kentucky Oaks. She was pretty inactive for the 20 months following that, but she’s now starting to put races together again as a 5-year-old. Her return at Tampa was pretty good, and I thought her last race at Laurel was better than it might look on paper. She was reserved off the pace early in a race that featured a pretty slow pace. The winner Beth’s Dream has been in great form down in Florida, and she delivered a strong winning effort. Yet Pass the Champagne took a game run at her late, drawing well clear of the rest. This distance suits her and I think she’ll be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#1 PASS THE CHAMPAGNE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 11

Between the likely favorites, I think One Headlight (#11) has more upside than Joint Resolution (#10). The latter earned a better speed figure in his lone turf race from last November, but is now coming off a layoff. One Headlight has recency, and he also ran better than the result might suggest on debut. He took an awkward step approaching the quarter pole, just as he was launching his rally. He lost significant momentum and did well to regather himself to make a late surge for second. I expect he might have better to offer here, but I’m not sure if he’s going to be much of a price. There are some interesting alternative options in this field. My top pick is Just for Luck (#1). This colt’s debut at Keeneland last year was actually pretty good. He broke very awkwardly, hesitating before getting into stride well behind the rest of the field. He trailed for much of the journey, but was actually running on strongly through the last quarter once asked for run. He has since switched barns and made his debut for Jack Sisterson at Gulfstream in March. The performance wasn’t nearly as good, as he never got involved despite being hard ridden. He almost has to be better than that, and perhaps that was just a prep for this race, since they must know he has this New York-bred condition available to him. There’s some ability here, and he figures to bet somewhat overlooked. The other horse that I want to use prominently is Locke and Key (#13), who has drawn into the race from the also eligible list. He has plenty of turf pedigree, being a half-brother to turf stakes performer Fire Key. He seemed to take a step forward getting on the synthetic last time, and had more to give late but got caught in traffic in deep stretch. He's a candidate to improve again on grass, and may get somewhat overlooked as an AE getting into the race.

Fair Value:
#1 JUST FOR LUCK, at 10-1 or greater
#13 LOCKE AND KEY, at 8-1 or greater