PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   8 - 9 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   7 - 5 - 8 - 11
Race 7:   6 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   11 - 7 - 1A - 12
Race 10:   3 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 11:   9 - 1A - 11 - 5

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

For David Aragona's analysis of the Kentucky Derby day card at Churchill Downs, check out David and Marcus Hersh's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies.

RACE 2: THE BIG GREY (#1)

I would assume that three locally-based horses will vie for favoritism in this low-level conditioned claimer. #5 It’s Mandatory could be the public choice as he drops down from the $25k level. However, he never lifted a hoof in his last start, trailing home. He’s returning just 7 days later looking for a better performance. However, I’m pretty skeptical of a horse that got into form for Jeffrey Englehart and has apparently fallen apart since leaving that barn. Many will perceive the main rivals to be #3 Scotty and #6 Mucho Sunshine, who finished second and third behind runaway winner Mister Winston at this level last time. Mucho Sunshine is perhaps the more dangerous of the pair due to his early speed in a race where all of the other fancied runners are closers. However, he has to deal with front-running longshot Devious Mo, so he probably isn’t making the lead here. They’re fine, but I think Parx shipper #1 The Big Grey may be of slightly higher quality. He was a little disappointing when he shipped to this circuit back in February, but he was facing a tougher field that day. And the same is true for his recent starts at Parx, as those rivals at the starter optional claiming level are considerably tougher than the field he meets here. I believe he’s getting the class relief that he needs, and he should be a square price due to the low-profile connections.

WIN: #1 The Big Grey, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5: UNBRIDLED BOMBER (#7)

The expected favorites in this N1X allowance don’t really appeal to me. #4 American Gentleman has been in reasonably strong form lately, but I think he’s had his chances to break through at this level. He was supposed to win two back when he got run down by Fitzpatrick. Perhaps the 7 furlongs was just a step too far for him that day, and now he’s stretching out to that distance once again. He can win, but I think there are some more interesting contenders at better prices. #1 River Dog figures to be the speed from the rail, but he’s another who is a little hard to trust going this far. He did win a stakes at 7 furlongs in his second start, but he was in great form then and was gasping at the end of that race. He's also not the easiest horses to trust, given the stops and starts during his career, and is moving up in class. I’m more interested in some horses who can make an impact from off the pace. #2 Twelth Man offers some appeal as he stretches back out in distance. He didn’t get much pace to close into when he tried this trip two back, but I thought he finished well against a decent field last time. He’s returning from a brief layoff for Michelle Nevin and has the back races over wet tracks to make him dangerous. My top pick at a bigger price is #7 Unbridled Bomber. I know I’ve had a love affair with this horse, picking him in some tough spots, but he truly has had some ridiculous trips in those races. He had no chance getting buried on a dead rail in the Withers two back, and 9 furlongs may be too far for him anyway. He then got a wild trip last time, veering in at the start before rushing up into an honest pace. He understandably faded that day. I like that James Ryerson takes the blinkers off following that performance, and I think this turnback in distance could suit him. He also shouldn’t mind getting back on a wet track, since he ran the best race of his career over sloppy going in the Jerome.

WIN: #7 Unbridled Bomber, at 8-1 or greater
USE: 2,3,4

RACE 7: RUN UP THE SCORE (#6)

I’m not trying to beat #6 Run Up the Score, who should break her maiden in her second start, as long as none of the first time starters possess real ability. Little went right for this filly in her debut, and the trouble began at the start. She got away a half-step slowly, then was steadied sharply, putting her at the back of the pack early. That wasn’t the place to be in a race dominated up front on a day that favored speed types. Run Up the Score also seemed to react badly to the intense kickback, having to be spun wide to launch her run. She did close well late but just had too much ground to make up. She figures to fare better if she can manage a clean start this time. Chad Brown is 18 for 53 (34%, $2.17 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints at NYRA over 5 years. I suppose the main dangers would be the first time starters from the Todd Pletcher and Bill Mott barns. #2 Don’t Overlook Me is by 8% debut sire Liam’s Map. There isn’t much immediate pedigree on the dam’s side, but her second dam Well Monied earned all of her victories on turf and was Grade 1-placed on that surface. Todd Pletcher is 15 for 55 (27%, $2.25 ROI) with 3YO first time starters in dirt sprints at NYRA over 5 years. She’s been training steadily at Palm Beach Downs, and looked to be traveling well within herself in company with an unraced stablemate on Apr. 8. I slightly prefer her to #5 Precursory, a homebred for Juddmonte. She’s by 15% debut sire Kantharos from a modest female family that hasn’t been especially productive for Juddmonte. Mott has good statistics with his 3-year-old firsters, so she wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

WIN: #6 Run Up the Score, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 8: SACRED LIFE (#5)

If #6 Rockemperor does indeed go off as the favorite in the G2 Fort Marcy for the second year in a row, I have to try to beat him. He’s shown himself to be best over longer distances than this 1 1/8 miles, and he’s never been the most reliable win candidate. He did run well to win the Turf Classic last year, but he’s thrown down strong performances and failed to back them up before. He had some legitimate trouble in the Breeders’ Cup, but was back to his habit of disappointing when losing as the heavy favorite in the Hollywood Turf Cup. I don’t need him off the layoff at a short price. #3 City Man seems like the one to beat off his impressive return in the Danger’s Hour last time. He can get the 1 1/8 miles, and arguably ran one of the best races of his career in the Fort Marcy last year behind Tribhuvan. He’s gained consistency with age, and figures to work out a good trip tracking the likely speeds. Some may consider #7 Doswell as a horse that could take them all the way on the front end, but I would anticipate that King Cause will be aggressively ridden. Doswell has also never run as well in New York as he does at Gulfstream, so I don’t trust him to bring his strong recent form north. My top pick is #5 Sacred Life. If this race is run over a rain-softened course, he’s not going to mind some give in the ground. I think he’s run deceptively well in both starts this year. He was ridden with no urgency in the Muniz last time, having no chance to get involved from his position at the top of the stretch. And two back he actually came with a nice late rush in the Pegasus World Cup Turf but ran out of ground over a course that doesn’t really suit his running style. He won going this distance at Belmont in the Knickerbocker last year, perhaps the addition of blinkers will get him a bit more involved early.

WIN: #5 Sacred Life, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 3

RACE 10: ZOOMER (#3)

Likely favorite #4 Cody’s Wish has been pretty popular with the bettors. He is remarkably consistent, having earned rising speed figures throughout his career. He fell just a neck short of winning his fourth in a row last time, but the Challenger has come back as a very strong race. Scalding and Dynamic One returned to finish first and second in the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland, with improved speed figures. The other 4 horses to run back out of that race have all improved as well in their next starts. The one-mile distance suits him, and he possesses enough tactical speed to not be badly pace-compromised. Still, it’s not like he has some massive speed figure advantage over this field and he figures to be an awfully short price. Many will assume that #2 Sound Money is the lone speed here, as is indicated on the TimeformUS Pace Projector. Perhaps that’s the case, but he’s not a horse who is particularly sharp out of the gate, nor was Kendrick Carmouche at all aggressive with him in his last race. He did win in gate-to-wire fashion going 7 furlongs three back, but did so against a weaker field in a race lacking pace. I’m not way against him as the likely second choice, but I do think he’ll be overbet. My top pick is #3 Zoomer. I acknowledge that he got a perfect trip when he upset Sound Money two back in that optional claimer going today’s distance, with that rival running the better race. He wasn't quite able to make it three in a row in his first start for the new barn last time, but came with his usual solid rally after having to alter course in the stretch. He figures to appreciate stretching back out to a mile, as he’s run his best races at this distance. While he lacks the class of some others, he does have speed figures to contend at this level. He also possesses more tactical speed than he’s displayed lately, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Dylan Davis gets aggressive and tries to take the lead away from Sound Money early. Note that won impressively in gate-to-wire fashion over a muddy track at Aqueduct last year.

WIN: #3 Zoomer, at 9-2 or greater