PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 9 - 8 - 1
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 8 - 3
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 6:   6 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 7:   1 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 8:   6 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 9:   1 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 10:   3 - 12 - 6 - 10

PLAYS

RACE 5: HAPPY HILL LIL (#6)
I believe Blame It On Mary is the horse to beat as she makes just the third turf start of her career. She showed turf ability when she first got on this surface last May, stalking an extremely fast pace and holding well for third. She didn’t get back on this surface until late September, but she put in another solid performance, laying down some honest fractions up front before just getting nailed on the wire. She deserves to be favored and it’s unclear if she will be due to the fact she’s trained by low-profile Ed Barker. Uncle’s Gem is another that could attract support, but I thought she got a great trip sitting right on top of a moderate pace. She had her chance through the stretch and just couldn’t quite see out the 7 furlongs. The slight cutback will help her, but I prefer others. My top pick is Happy Hill Lil. This filly showed sudden and surprising improvement this summer at Saratoga, but she carried that form to Belmont two back, winning a claimer in fast time. Some will dismiss her off her poor finish at this level last time, but she got the wrong trip that day. She was allowed to drop too far back in the early going and then followed a tiring runner into the lane, never in position to make a move until it was too late. She’s better than that, and Paco Lopez should have her more forwardly placed early.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,4

RACE 7: SHAD NATION (#1)
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Shad Nation in this Chelsey Flower. This filly had trained well prior to her debut, where she was surprisingly let go at 10-1, and she delivered a strong performance. She traveled well early stalking the pace before making her move in the lane, running down the loose-on-the-lead Gun Boat before galloping out strongly. She got a field-best 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort and should prove superior to this group if she moves forward at all. Christophe Clement is known for his success with debut runners, but he also has great stats when those horses return for their second starts. Over the past 5 years, Clement is 7 for 22 (32%, $3.71 ROI) with last-out debut winners in turf routes over the past 5 years. I think this filly is pretty good and I’m not convinced she’s facing the toughest field. I primarily want new faces among the challengers. Ouraika is somewhat interesting as she makes her first start in this country for Graham Motion. She was finishing decently among horses in her last start in France and should stretch out. Graham Motion has excellent stats with first time foreign imports, so this filly has a right to improve. I also wouldn’t completely discount the chances of Caironi. This filly was a bit of a surprise when she made her debut last month, but she won that race convincingly and she has a pedigree to stretch out. I’m not trying to beat the favorite, but I would key those two fillies listed at 6-1 on the morning line (Ouraika and Caironi) underneath.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5
Trifecta: 1 with 3,5 with 3,4,5,7,9

RACE 9: HOT FUDGE (#1)
Mystic Eyes is a deserving favorite in this Steward Manor. She was beaten by today’s rival Gal in a Rush in the Matron last time out, but Mystic Eyes clearly ran the superior race that day. The early pace was fast and this Pletcher filly was game to battle back in the late stages as the race was beginning to fall apart. In my opinion she did the dirty work and has a right to move forward off that performance, whereas Gal in a Rush was just picking up the pieces and may not be quite as good as the Matron result indicates. I respect the favorite, but she could face some early pressure once again as rivals like Charlee O, Stand Up Comic, and Benbang all possess early speed as well. I want to go in a different direction with a filly who is switching surfaces. Hot Fudge made her debut on turf back in July and actually took quite a bit of money for a Linda Rice first time starter. However, she ran like a horse who needed the race, as she was ridden conservatively in the early going and never got involved. The turf courses were playing somewhat speed-favoring on July 11 – the last day of the Belmont meet – so I don’t think that result is nearly as poor as it seems. Since then she’s returned to win on the dirt before the connections took a shot in the Grade 1 Frizette. I’m intrigued by this move back to turf. She doesn’t have a ton of immediate turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but she’s by decent turf influence Liam’s Map out of an Into Mischief mare. She moved like a horse who should be able to handle turf in that very impressive sales workout back in April, so I’m not opposed to them giving her another chance on this surface. She figures to get a bit of pace to set up her late run.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,7,10
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 5,6,7,10

RACE 10: NECROMANCER (#3)
I’m not particularly fond of Wicked Fast, who could vie for favoritism here after just missing by a neck at this level in his career debut. However, I think this is a tougher race at this level than the one he was contesting last time. He got a good trip that day and just couldn’t quite seal the deal while hanging in the late stages. I want to look elsewhere given the wealth of appealing alternatives. Uninvited Guest seems like a logical player as he gets on turf for the first time. This horse showed some ability in his career debut at Monmouth but then fell apart racing over a wet track at Saratoga. I think turf could be the right surface for him, as his dam was clearly best on that footing. He’s obviously been a massive disappointment given his $400k yearling price tag, but Todd Pletcher has solid statistics with horses trying a tag for the first time getting on turf. Another runner dropping in for the tag is Hooky Player. This horse has already been on turf at Monmouth, but I think he’s capable of better after running into a couple of superior rivals in New Jersey. My top pick is second time starter Necromancer. He’s obviously coming out of a strong race, as Slipstream came right back to win the Grade 3 Futurity off that score. Runner-up Grand Sonata also came back to win at Keeneland and fifth-place finisher Dr. Browne’s Miracle improved with a deceptively strong performance in his next start. Necromancer didn’t do much running that day, but he was hampered by a slow early pace, and should appreciate the stretch-out in distance.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,10,12