by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 7 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 3: 1A - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 3 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 9: 2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 10: 1 - 8 - 10 - 3
RACE 4: BETTY F (#6)
Peaceful has shown plenty of talent right from the start of her career. She overcame a very slow break to be second in a productive debut, out of which winner Saint Moon returned to finish 2nd in a stakes. She was unable to mount a rally in the Christiecat last time, but that was a stronger field than this one and she was hardly disgraced in defeat. Trainer Mike Stidham is 7 for 20 (35%, $2.21 ROI) first off a trainer switch in turf sprints over 5 years, so I wouldn’t view this barn change as a negative. I’m using her prominently, but there are some others to consider at better prices. Zalia ran reasonably well in her return last time but was probably facing a slightly weaker field. Saratoga Treasure earned a competitive speed figure in her recent win going this distance, but she’s now stepping up against open company for the first time. I’ll use them defensively, but my top pick is Betty F at what should be a generous price. This filly has shown little in her two US starts to date. She was bet down to favoritism at Del Mar and could never muster up a rally while stuck in some mild traffic during the second half of that event. She got a little rank in the early going of the Noble Damsel last time, and Kendrick Carmouche didn’t persevere with her late once she was obviously beaten. Now she turns all the way back to 6 furlongs and that might benefit her, since she sprinted effectively in England. She also showed some quality in her races over there. As a 2-year-old, enough was thought of her to try the Group 1 Cheveley Park. There’s obviously more talent here than we’ve seen. I won’t be surprised if she takes a significant step forward now that she’s had some time to settle into her surroundings.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,5,8
RACE 6: POWER UP PAYNTER (#8)
Only a few runners in this field have turf experience, and Turbo Drive brings the best form of those. He’s finished third in both grass starts, but those were going route distances. While it’s fair to be skeptical of many turf turnbacks, this horse sprinted effectively on dirt early in his career, so it makes sense that he would prefer shorter distances on grass as well. I like the rider switch to Joel Rosario and I actually believe he’s a strong contender, though I’m not in love with the idea of endorsing a favorite in a competitive race. My top pick is Power Up Paynter. It’s no secret that Linda Rice does a fantastic job with her second-time starters, and she’s 7 for 27 (26%, $2.64 ROI) with maiden secondtimers going from dirt to turf over the past 5 years. This colt doesn’t have much obvious turf pedigree, but Paynter is a decent enough turf influence, getting 11% winners on the surface. It’s meaningful that Linda Rice entered this horse for turf first time out, but not surprising that she left him in that spot to get some experience. I actually thought he ran better than his finish would indicate, since he rushed up on the backstretch and was traveling in the bridle around the turn before he got tired. I won’t be surprised if she shows more speed this time.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5
RACE 7: FEAR NO EVIL (#3)
Goldwood is expected to start here after getting scratched out of a stakes at Keeneland on Friday. If she does participate in this Floral Park, she’s likely to be a strong favorite. This mare has really come to hand as a 5-year-old, and is now seeking her sixth consecutive stakes victory. While she is clearly in top form right now, Goldwood does have to handle the slight stretch-out to 6 furlongs, which is a minor hurdle. Furthermore, it’s not as if her recent set of speed figures give her some massive edge over this field, as a couple of her rivals have run just as fast in recent starts. I respect her, but I think we can look elsewhere for better value. Fire Key is a perfectly logical alternative after falling just a half-length shy of reeling in the favorite in the Sensible Lady at Laurel last time. Fire Key loves this 6-furlong distance, having finished in the exacta in 10 for 11 starts over this trip. Furthermore, she has a versatile running style that should allow her to adapt to any pace scenario. She’s clearly a strong contender, but my top pick is Fear No Evil, who figures to be a much better price. Fear No Evil has finished behind Fire Key a number of times over the past two seasons, but she hasn’t always gotten ideal trips in their matchups. That was certainly true last time when Fear No Evil was shuffled back on the far turn then steadied and forced to alter course when attempting to rally in the stretch. She’s clearly better than that effort, as she displayed in this very race last year. Overall, her 2019 form has been fairly strong, so I don’t believe she’s lost a step. Furthermore, she’s finally getting a rider switch to Joel Rosario, who just seems like a perfect fit for this mare’s running style.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,6 with ALL
RACE 8: ASHAAR (#4)
Perjury Trap may go off as the favorite in this intriguing maiden event after losing by a head first time out. Some might view it as a negative that he debuted at Monmouth, but this colt was actually facing a pretty strong field down in NJ. The winner As Seen On Tv returned to finish 2nd in a stakes with a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, Chad Brown is 4 for 17 (24%, $1.24 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years, suggesting that these types tend to get overbet. He’s the horse to beat, but it’s not like he has some massive figure edge over his main rivals. I’m using him, but I wouldn’t accept too short a price. The others with experience are slightly less appealing to me. Starting Over debuted going a mile, but I’m not sure how strong that race was overall. Furthermore, he’s not exactly bred to do better with less distance. Hemlock nearly won in a similar spot last time, but he benefited from a rail bias that day whereas the eventual winner was out in the center of the track. They’re all possibilities, but I’m intrigued by the first time starters in this spot. Turnagain Tide is another expensive OXO runner from the Chad Brown barn. He’s been working well enough, but many of these types have needed a race. The horse who appears to be training exceptionally well into this debut is Ashaar. Some real ability was on display in his Aug. 31 bullet drill, in which he drew away from the older Spice Road in the late stages. He was then easily best from the gate on Oct. 6, dominating a pair of rivals. Ashaar is a son of excellent debut sire Into Mischief and he’s a half-brother to Dubai dirt Group 2 winner Mendip ($895k), whose second dam is the multiple Grade 1 winner Chaposa Springs ($762k). It’s tough for a 2-year-old to win going 7 furlongs first time out, but this one should give a good account of himself.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6,7
RACE 9: OLENDON (#2)
This Sands Point drew an intriguing group of fillies, many of whom have failed to win against tougher competition through the summer and are seeking some class relief. They’re getting it here in this Grade 2 event, but that doesn’t necessarily make this race easy to decipher. The potential favorite is the lightly raced New and Improved, who seems to have the most upside of all the contenders in this race. She put in a dazzling late run to take her debut at Saratoga and then was ambitiously spotted in a stakes immediately after that. She was hardly disgraced in finishing fourth behind her talented stablemate Catch a Bid, and she finished like a filly who should have no problem negotiating an extra furlong. I’m certainly using her, but she doesn’t figure to offer much value. I’m actually more interested in Chad Brown’s other runner, Olendon, who up until now has been a disappointment. It’s hard to put a positive spin on her Belmont Oaks, but it was her first start in this country and she did appear to stop running after taking a hard bump at the quarter pole. I think she took a subtle step forward in the Saratoga Oaks last time, but her connections squandered an opportunity to see the results by adding blinkers. Olendon became far too keen in the early stages, fighting her rider for about a half-mile. Early trouble like that is always detrimental, especially in a race that requires horses to sprint to the wire. Now the blinkers come off and Olendon is facing the softest field she’s met in this country. She continues to train well and I believe she deserves one more chance. I’ll primarily use her with the aforementioned favorite and the two fillies from the Jockey Club Oaks, Dyna Passer and Romantic Pursuit.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with ALL