by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 8 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 5 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 6: 9 - 3 - 10 - 4
Race 7: 1 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 8: 11 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 9: 8 - 10 - 6 - 2
Race 10: 11 - 10 - 1A - 4
RACE 6: PRINCESS TRINA (#9)
This race still has some appeal after being switched to the main track. Added to the mix is well-bred first time starter I’m Guilty, who goes out for Rudy Rodriguez. This barn can certainly have one ready to fire in its debut, and this filly appears to have some ability. She worked a solid 21 2/5 second quarter mile at the OBS sale earlier this year, and she has a classy dirt pedigree. She is a half-sister to NY-bred sprint stakes winner Chief Officer and is a 3/4-sister to Grade 2 Fantasy winner Ready to Please. I’m using her prominently, since I generally prefer her to the first time starters that were meant for turf. Of those with experience, Style and Grace obviously must be considered. She's bred for turf, but she ran well enough in both of her dirt starts against solid fillies at Saratoga. Secret Alchemy is another that deserves some consideration as she makes her debut for Jeremiah Englehart. She hails from a family of dirt sprinters despite being entered for turf first time out. I’m using these horses, but my top pick is Princess Trina. This filly had been reportedly working well prior to her debut on July 20 at Saratoga, but absolutely nothing went right that day. She broke a step slowly, got shuffled back on the backstretch, and steadied on the turn. Her race was basically over by the time they got to the quarter pole, so I can excuse her poor finish. She took a subtle step forward on turf last time out, but I still think she’s more of a dirt horse. I think she will be well-suited to this slight stretch-out in distance and I am going to give her one more chance.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,4,10
RACE 8: FEAR NO EVIL (#11)
This race was significantly affected by scratches. Lady Alexandra is scheduled to run at Woodbine instead, and Lull is not participating on yielding turf. With both of these favorites out, this race becomes totally wide-open, and I think it’s wise to go shopping for a price. Tillie’s Lily probably will inherit the role of public choice as she seeks to get back on track after a disappointing stakes debut in the Smart N Fancy. She did not handle the hubbub of Saratoga prior to that start and may have expended too much energy prior to the race. I think she’s a contender, but she has yet to prove that she’s actually faster than a number of rivals who will go off at better prices. Out of that Smart N Fancy, I'm actually more interested in Battle Joined, who had to alter her preferred style when she did break sharply. She got a decent trip thereafter, but I thought she was closing well late in a race where few horses changed position. She's definitely a part of my play, but I want to focus on a horse exiting the Sensible Lady Turf Dash at Laurel. Fire Key finally got back to her winning ways with a nose victory, but she did so with the benefit of a perfect trip. That race featured a fast pace that totally fell apart and was dominated by horses making outside runs. Of the closers, I thought Fear No Evil actually ran the best race. She was racing closer to the pace than Fire Key, and her rider appeared to be caught off guard when that one made the first move. Fear No Evil had to wait and duck inside to make her run in the final eighth of a mile. She was actually moving best of all at the end and may have won under different circumstances. This filly improved significantly throughout the spring and summer, and I appreciate that she’s shown improved early speed in many of those starts. She handles some give in the ground, and she’s going to be a square price once again.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 11 with 6,8 with 2,5,6,8,12
RACE 9: VICTORINE (#8)
Got Stormy will attempt to win her fourth consecutive stakes in the Pebbles, going her favorite one-mile distance. She was obviously in great form when last seen in July, but the absence since then is of some concern. This is also a significant step up in class for her, as the runners that finished immediately behind her in those last two stakes victories are vastly inferior to the top contenders in this field. Furthermore, she got absolutely perfect trips in those races, racing up close to very slow paces. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and she will have to rally from farther off it. Monte Crista has a similar profile to Got Stormy, but at least she comes into the race without a layoff. She also got a perfect trip to win the Riskaverse last time, stalking a very slow pace, but at least she has shown the versatility to come from farther behind in the past. I’m using these fillies, but my top selection is Victorine. I thought her U.S. debut in the Sands Point was actually pretty encouraging. That was a strong field, and she got an awkward trip, as she made a wide move without cover on the far turn. She flattened out in the lane, but that wasn’t surprising given her journey. This filly had displayed real class running in France earlier this year and I don't think we saw the best that she has to offer in the Sands point. The turnback in distance may actually suit her since she will get more pace to close into this time. She also gets Lasix as she switches into the Christophe Clement barn, which has been heating up in recent weeks.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,6,7,10
Trifecta: 8 with 2,6,10 with 1,2,5,6,10,12