by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 9 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 5: 7 - 8 - 3 - 9
Race 6: 1 - 8 - 11 - 6
Race 7: 6 - 11 - 5 - 1A
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 2 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 10: 1 - 9 - 5 - 7
RACE 2: KULIN ROCK (#6)
I certainly respect Now in a Drive, who has run well enough to win races at this level, but seems to come up just a little short most of the time. He
finished ahead of today's rival Kulin Rock last time, but I think that runner has an excellent chance to turn the tables here. Kulin Rock was making his
debut in that race, and I thought he ran well despite racing a bit greenly. He had to alter course in midstretch when looking for room and was
finishing with good interest through the wire. Barclay Tagg can win with a first-time starter on the turf from time to time, but he has much better
numbers with second-time starters on this surface. Over the past five years, he is 7 for 35 (20 percent, $2.48 ROI) with maidens making their second
starts on the grass.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 2,7,8 with 1,2,4,7,8
RACE 3: TOTAL CONTROL (#1)
The two runners likely to attract the most play in this spot are Tiz the Light and Expensive Taste. The former hasn't run badly in any of her races, and
will benefit from getting some class relief against this somewhat weak maiden field. However, she's still been a bit of a disappointment given her
pedigree, as a half-sister to By the Moon. Expensive Taste ran well as a 2-year-old at Del Mar last summer. The winner of that race has run fine in her
subsequent starts, but there just wasn't much quality behind her that day. I'm always afraid of Jason Servis, but I want to take a shot against both of
those fillies with Total Control. She ran better than it might appear in a few of her starts at Aqueduct last winter. She made a premature move two
back on January 15, and then was wide against a strong rail bias on February 4. I think she might appreciate this turnback in distance, and Brian
Lynch has great numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 7 for 28 (25 percent, $4.68 ROI) with runners coming off a trainer switch and
layoffs of 180 days or more.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,6
RACE 5: TWO DOWN ONE TO GO (#7)
If Bancroft Hall runs back to his effort at Aqueduct on April 8, he’ll almost certainly win this race. I know he disappointed in his only subsequent dirt start, but that race at Monmouth wasn’t nearly as bad as it looks. That sloppy track was favoring speed on July 14, and Bancroft just didn’t appear to be handling the track as he struggled to keep up from the outset. Now he gets a rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, who will take advantage of his early speed. I think he’s the horse to beat, but I want to get take a small shot against him with Two Down One To Go. This horse has been campaigned primarily on turf in recent starts, but I think he might actually appreciate this switch back to the main track. After all, he’s finishing in the money just twice in 11 grass starts, and has hit the board in 6 of 7 starts on dry dirt tracks. With the lone exception of his effort on June 8, which came against a particularly tough field, all of his dirt races from this past winter give him a shot here. He has to prove he can handle the turnback in distance, but Dave Cannizzo has good numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 6 for 25 (24 percent, $4.31 ROI) with runners going from turf routes to dirt sprints.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,6,8,9
RACE 6: ROYAL POWER (#1) / O SHEA CAN U SEE (#8)
There's a lot going on in this race, so I think it will be important to pay attention to the tote board, noting which horses are offering significant value.
One horse around whom I want to tread lightly is Sea Foam. On the surface of things, he looks like a deserving favorite, having run fast races in his
two dirt starts, and possessing a pedigree that suggests turf might be his preferred surface. However, I think it's often a mistake to bet horses like
this switching surfaces off strong dirt form, since they tend to be underlays. I'm more interested in some of the unproven options. First-time starter
Dr. Baskin is half-brother to turf stakes performer Hothersal. O Shea Can U See is a half-brother to a turf winner and goes out for a trainer who has
great numbers going turf to dirt with second-time starters. Over the past five years, he is 8 for 25 (32 percent, $2.65 ROI) with that move. I’ll use him, but my top selection is Royal Power. This horse hasn't done much running in
his two starts, but he's bred to take a significant step forward on the turf. He's by Orb, who is proving to be a capable grass sire, and is out of a dam
that won four times on the turf, including a stakes overseas.
Win/Place: 1,8
Exacta Key Box: 1,8 with 1,6,8,9,11,12
RACE 7: GRAND SKY (#6)
I’m generally not one to settle on short prices in seemingly wide-open races, but Grand Sky just looks like the right horse here, even as he’s stepping up in class. Horses don’t win 5 1/2 furlong turf sprints by nearly 3 lengths unless they’re dominating their competition, and that’s exactly what Grand Sky did up at Saratoga. He showed newfound early speed with the addition of blinkers, and still came with that effective late run on both occasions. Furthermore, the runner-up in his last effort returned to win at the same level, increasing his TimeformUS Speed Figure significantly. Jason Servis is the best in the business with turf sprinters, and he knows how to keep them in form. Over the past five years, he is 26 for 75 (35 percent, $2.71 ROI) with horses coming off wins in turf sprints.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5,11
Trifecta: 6 with 1,5,11 with 1,2,3,5,11