by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 10 - 8 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 9 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 1 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 9 - 8 - 3
Race 8: 1 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 9: 4 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 10: 9 - 1 - 8 - 10
Race 11: 1 - 7 - 10 - 3
RACE 2: FIRENZE FREEDOM (#1)
Naked Avenger figures to be a heavy favorite as she attempts to keep her undefeated record intact and collect a second stakes victory. She was sent off at a big price in the Joseph A. Gimma after winning her sloppy track debut, but she took a major step forward off that win, rallying past the favorites Fierce Lady and Irish Danzing. While she won impressively and won going away, I think part of that was due to the fact that the two fillies ahead of her basically hit a wall in the final furlong. Naked Avenger obviously has talent and she doesn’t figure to have a major issue handling the mile. However, there are a couple of recent maiden winners who could make her task difficult. Critical Value figures to attract support of her 6-furlong win in late August at Saratoga. She was unlucky to lose a desperate head bob in her debut and she easily handled that field last time. However, now she has to stretch out in distance and her pedigree gives mixed signals. I’m using her, but I prefer another last-out maiden winner. Firenze Freedom, like Naked Avenger, was helped when the fillies battling ahead of her dueled themselves into defeat last time. However, I still thought this daughter of Istan responded very well in the late stages, finishing up like a runner who should have no trouble negotiating an extra furlong. She’s bred to have a future as a half-sister to Grade 1-placed dirt runner Firenze Fire. Furthermore, Jason Servis is a remarkable 10 for 21 (48%, $2.63 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in dirt routes.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1 with 2,3 with 2,3,4
RACE 4: GUCCI FACTOR (#6)
This Mohawk features a rematch of the runners that contested the Ashley T. Cole last month. Dot Matrix was able to run down Voodoo Song that day under an astute ride from Luis Saez, who put him into a stalking position in the early stages. The pace of the Cole was fairly moderate, which gave both Voodoo Song and Dot Matrix a distinct advantage and worked against a closer like Offering Plan. Voodoo Song is arguably even more dangerous this time around since there is no true speed signed on to challenge him and the Pace Projector is unsurprisingly predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. However, it’s also worth noting that this race is contested over the Widener turf course, whereas last time Voodoo Song was going 9 furlongs on the inner. This configuration doesn’t tend to help speed as much, so we might see a more fairly run race. I’m hoping that’s the case because I think Gucci Factor deserves another chance after his Ashley T. Cole debacle. He completely blew the start that day as he was acting up when the gates opened and spotted the field about half a dozen lengths. Gucci Factor had no real chance after that, especially given the manner in which the race was run, but I thought he nevertheless did well to get within 4 lengths of the winner at the wire. Also consider that 1 1/8 miles probably isn’t even his best distance, and he should appreciate this slight cutback in trip. He had progressed to the point of winning a graded stakes during the summer, and I believe it’s quite possible that he’s still in the same stellar form now.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4,7 with 2,3,4,7,8
RACE 6: BUILD TO SUIT (#1)
The first five finishers across the wire in the John Morrissey at Saratoga are all back in this Hudson field. Celtic Chaos got the job done that day over Build to Suit in what was his second consecutive victory and his first stakes win since the 2017 Morrissey. The 6-year-old was uncharacteristically close to the pace and actually got the jump on his main rival at the top of the stretch. He has been campaigned judiciously in 2019, and now enters this race off another brief layoff. While he’s seeking his third win in a row, it’s still true that this horse can be somewhat difficult to ride since his late move has to be timed just right. Furthermore, there isn’t any significant speed in this field and the Pace Projector is predicting he could be at a pace disadvantage. The same is technically true for Build to Suit, but I don’t expect him to be quite as badly compromised. Build to Suit fell just a nose short of victory in the Morrissey while making his first start in over 6 months. He probably was best on that occasion, as he got shuffled back after the start and had to weave his way through traffic in the stretch. He returned last time against a slightly softer field and won going away over this race’s likely pacesetter Eye Luv Lulu. If that Jason Servis runner falls apart again here, that should bring the closers into the race and allow Build to Suit a fair chance. He’s probably not going to be much of a price, but he’s been in great form this year and I just think he’s the most likely winner. The other horse to consider is Gold for the King, but he’s disappointed as the favorite a few too many times recently and I’m starting to wonder if his form has tailed off.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3,4,8
Trifecta: 1 with 3,8 with 2,3,4,8
RACE 7: SATISFY (#7)
I’m not exactly against horses like Holiday Disguise and Carrera Cat, but I also haven’t been thrilled with their recent efforts. You have to admire Holiday Disguise’s longevity, as she’s still competing at this level after three seasons, but it’s been a while since she’s run one of her better races. She was fairly dull last time out when losing the Union Avenue as the 8-5 favorite and I believe she could be up against it here unless she produces a better performance. Carrera Cat seems like a logical alternative, especially after she defeated Holiday Disguise in that aforementioned stakes. However, the name of the game with her is speed, and I’m somewhat concerned that she might hook up with the very swift Filibustin in the opening furlongs. Filibustin isn’t really a threat to be around at the end, but she could spell trouble for this otherwise logical contender. It’s also not as if Carrera Cat’s top speed figures make her that formidable at this level, and this race came up tougher than the Union Avenue. Given my reservations with those two, I’m going with Satisfy to get back on track here. This mare was obviously in excellent form last year when she finished second in this race, earning an impressive 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She obviously had a setback earlier this year to be off for so long, but I thought her return race at Monmouth wasn’t nearly as bad as it seems. She was in behind some longshots in a bunched field coming around the far turn and Joe Bravo had to tap on the brakes a few times while trying to find a clear path. She ultimately got free in the stretch, but it was too late to mount a rally in a race that held together up front. She’s better than that and I believe her performance isn’t as poor as the speed figures indicate. I expect her to bounce back with a good effort this time.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,8,9
Trifecta: 7 with 3,8,9 with 1,2,3,8,9
RACE 8: CITY MAN (#1)
Three of the main players in this Sleepy Hollow faced off in the Bertram F. Bongard last time and they basically hit the wire simultaneously. Cleon Jones just got his head down in front after racing surprisingly close to what turned out to be a pretty moderate early pace. He might win again, but you could have had him at 6-1 last time and you’d now have to accept a much shorter price on a horse who doesn’t necessarily have any advantage over his rivals. After all, he did finish nearly 5 lengths behind City Man when they met in the Funny Cide at Saratoga. It’s possible that Cleon Jones has improved since then, but I also think it’s fair to say that we probably didn’t see City Man’s best performance in the Bongard. He got a decent trip, held up behind runners until upper stretch, and he got into the clear with plenty of time to run down the front-runners. That said, he ran well two back with a more aggressive ride, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Joel Rosario put him in the game sooner this time. Furthermore, Christophe Clement applies Lasix for the first time in this start and he is 5 for 13 (38%, $4.06 ROI) doing that with 2-year-olds on the dirt. I think he’s the horse to beat, but I also have respect for Harris Bay. This debut winner earned the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field when beating Dream Bigger back in September. That rival returned to win a minor stakes at Finger Lakes, so the form of his debut is strong. The only question for Harris Bay is the distance, since he has to get an added two furlongs here, but he clearly has plenty of talent.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 1 with 3,5 with 2,3,4,5
RACE 10: MIDNIGHT DISGUISE (#9)
Two rivals coming off blowout victories figure to vie for favoritism in this Empire Distaff. Newly Minted dominated an overmatched group of 3-year-olds in the Fleet Indian last time, proving that she doesn’t have serious distance limitations. She carved out honest fractions and widened at will in the stretch, en route to an impressive 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. While she has plenty of speed, she’s not the type of horse who needs the lead, and that’s a good thing in a race that features plenty of pace to her outside. If she gets the same kind of stalking trip that she worked out in the Bouwerie, I believe she’ll be tough to beat. Ratajkowski will also take money after trouncing optional claimers by over 10 lengths last time. However, her task was made much easier once main rival Might Be failed to show up. She’s an imposing 5-year-old who clearly will relish the one-mile distance, but I think she might be somewhat overrated off that victory against lesser company. I’m using both prominently, but I’m going in a different direction. Midnight Disguise has been a little frustrating for her connections, as she hasn’t won a race since May of her 3-year-old season. However, her 2019 form is actually better than it seems, since she’s had a number of excuses. She doesn’t care for a wet track, so I can excuse the efforts in March and April. She was against a bias in February and was going a distance that is clearly too short for her in June. Therefore, the only time that she’s had a real chance to be successful was in the Critical Eye two back going today’s distance, and she ran an excellent race to be second that day, earning a competitive 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Now she’s back at the mile distance in a race that figures to feature some pace for her to close into. I like this rider switch to Joel Rosario and I think she might be able to get back to the winner’s circle this time.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,5,8,10
Trifecta: 9 with 1,8,10 with 1,2,3,5,6,8,10