by David Aragona
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Race 1: 9 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 3: 9 - 11 - 4 - 10
Race 4: 9 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 5: 7 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 6: 14 - 7 - 13 - 11
Race 7: 5 - 2 - 8 - 11 - 1
Race 8: 7 - 1 - 6 - 9 - 15
Race 9: 8 - 12 - 9 - 7
Race 10: 10 - 4 - 7 - 8
Race 11: 12 - 4 - 16 - 7
RACE 2: HOLIDAY DISGUISE (#4)
I want the two horses dropping out of the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom in this Iroquois. Holiday Disguise and Highway Star finished a half-length apart that day in a race where neither one received ideal trips. The rail was the place to be on Sep. 23 at Belmont, as it has been for many days at this meet. Highway Star contested the honest early pace of that race and appeared poised to run a big race before coming up empty in the final quarter mile. It’s possible that her retreat in the last furlong had everything to do with the track profile, but I still wanted to see a bit more fight out of her. In the past, this had been a mare that refused to yield under any circumstances when she was in a position to win, and I have not seen that same tenacity in 2018. She can certainly win this race since it is a much easier spot, but I prefer Holiday Disguise this time. Holiday Disguise looked like she needed a race coming into the Gallant Bloom and that’s how she ran. While closers were successful in that race, the winner rode the rail every step of the way and Holiday Disguise was wide early and swung widest of all coming off the far turn. She’s supposed to take a step forward today and Linda Rice’s statistics indicate that she will. Over the past five years, she is 8 for 15 (53 percent, $3.28 ROI) second off a layoff in non-graded stake dirt sprints. Holiday Disguise has consistently earned speed figures that make her a top threat here and the Pace Projector is predicting that she will receive a fast pace to close into. I strongly prefer her to some of the other contenders that are likely to take money. Satisfy has ascended quickly through her state-bred conditions, but she’s done so at the expense of weaker rivals while getting perfect trips. This is a serious class test. Picco Uno may also garner some respect at the windows, but I’m not a fan of this filly. She somehow regained top form back in June when Jason Servis was in the midst of his unbelievable run of success. Since then, the barn has cooled off and Picco Uno has also returned to Earth. The rest of her 2018 efforts do not make her a factor here and Servis indicated prior to that poor effort in the Union Avenue that she had once again gone the wrong way.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,7,10
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 1,7,10
RACE 4: RUNAWAY LUTE (#9)
This is a very confusing race, as all of the top contenders are pretty evenly-matched and it’s unclear which ones are in top form right now. My Boy Tate at one time would have been an overwhelming favorite in this race, but his two efforts since returning from the layoff cast some doubt on his chances to return to the winner’s circle. He had a right to need his first start back of the layoff in the Tale of the Cat, but I still would have liked to have seen him fight a bit more that day. He missed the break last time on Sep. 16, but he never seemed to be traveling that well thereafter and he couldn’t withstand the late rally from today’s rival Celtic Chaos, who was even more compromised by a slow pace. I’m against My Boy Tate in this spot. The two horses that interest me most are those drawn towards the outside. Gold for the King makes plenty of sense as he returns off a brief freshening. He’s never been totally comfortable on wet tracks, so I thought he actually ran pretty well to be a close fourth in the John Morrissey after chasing the pace. Prior to that, he had taken advantage of a slow pace when destroying a group of open optional claiming foes in very fast time at Belmont. He seems to run his best races when he can be placed close to the early pace and that’s likely to occur here since only Eye Luv Lulu and My Boy Tate have any real gate speed. I’m using him, but the horse that I really want to bet is Runaway Lute. This horse hinted at possessing extraordinary ability when he was unveiled as a 2-year-old, but things quickly got derailed as his past performances became littered with poor efforts and layoffs. I don’t know what new changes were made prior to his most recent comeback attempt, but it clearly worked. He ran deceptively well in his return from the layoff on June 10, as he chased a fast pace that ultimately collapsed, and had to wait in traffic before coming through inside. He confirmed that the performance was no fluke next time out with a commanding win at the N2X allowance level, as he blazed 7 furlongs in 1:21 1/5 seconds. He was a late scratch out of the John Morrissey after flipping in the paddock and it’s taken Gary Contessa while to get him back to the races. However, he appears to be training well into this race and I like the outside draw for another runner that clearly possesses the tactical speed to sit a good stalking trip.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 5,6,7,8
RACE 7: TIME WARP (#5)
Cartwheelin Lulu may go off as the favorite as she seeks her third win in as many starts. She basically had the Joseph A. Gimma handed to her last time, as she was allowed to set absurdly slow early fractions. She also rode the rail on a day that featured a strong inside bias. Jeremiah Englehart does not have strong numbers stretching out, and I think she’s vulnerable here. The horses who intrigue me most are exiting different races. Kept True was a dominant winner of her off-the-turf debut a few weeks ago, and I think she’s very dangerous wheeling back on short rest. Distance is a concern, but she looked like a sizable, mature filly in that unveiling. I also wouldn’t count out any of Linda Rice’s entrants. Galadriel’s Light comes into this as a maiden after finishing behind Kept True in her debut, but she finished with a flourish and is bred to stretch out. Surge of Pride also interests me as she gets on dirt for the first time. She’s bred for this surface on her dam’s side, and Rice has exceptional numbers with horses going from turf sprints to dirt routes (11 for 22, $3.48 ROI over the past years). I’m using them, but the horse I most want to bet is Time Warp. This filly has been steadily improving over the course of her four starts. She handled seven furlongs when she won her maiden and then did not run as badly as it seems next time out in the Seeking the Ante, in which she was four wide against a rail bias. She actually faced a decent field at Keeneland last time and only faded once bumped around in the stretch. I like that Ken McPeek is running her back quickly, as he has outstanding numbers off layoffs of eight to 15 days in non-graded stakes on dirt (6 for 12, $5.49 ROI over the past five years).
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Box: 2,5,8
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,9,11
RACE 8: MARKET BUBBLE (#7)
Dugout is clearly a talented sprinter, but he now has to stretch his speed to a mile for the first time while dealing with an early pace that is likely to be fast, according to the Pace Projector. Larry Rivelli has strong stretch-out numbers, but this horse is going to be a pretty short price in an otherwise-confusing race, so I want to look elsewhere. A number of horses are returning out of the Bertam F. Bongard, none of whom was any match for dominant winner Frosted Ice. The early pace of that race really fell apart, so Bankit probably didn’t run as badly as it seems. However, he will likely have to deal with another unfavorable pace dynamic here. Poppy’s Destiny passed tired horses to get up for second that day, but he feels like one of the more trustworthy options stretching out in distance, so I’ll use him. Yet there are a number of new faces in this spot, many of whom are switching to dirt for the first time. The one I want to bet is Market Bubble. The connections paid a lot of money for this son of Fed Biz off a seriously impressive sales workout in March. Given his pedigree, it’s understandable that they gave him a chance on turf first time out, and he actually ran quite well that day. Runner-up The Postmaster had a significant tactical advantage, and this horse put in an encouraging stretch run to nail him at the wire. He didn’t handle a yielding course at Laurel last time while getting outrun throughout. He’s always struck me as a horse who should appreciate added distance, and I’m actually not opposed to the switch to dirt. While his second family has plenty of grass influences, his dam handled dirt routes.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,6,9,15
RACE 9: TIZNOW’S SMILE (#8)
This is one of the most difficult races on the card. I flagged no less than 8 horses with strong chances to win, and there’s very little separating those at the top. I suppose Bonita Bianca is the horse to beat off her strong 2018 dirt form for Jason Servis. I realize that she’s only contested sprints in her dirt races, but I believe that’s just a testament to how well she’s done in the new barn. In the past, this filly had no early speed and would launch relentless rallies from far back, just as she did in this race last year. The turf experiment last time out is somewhat perplexing, since this barn is not known for running in horses in spots where they seem uncompetitive. Was it just a stepping stone to this race? In any event, she’s back in the right race this time and I think she’s a major threat to win. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and that could work against a number of possible contenders. Frostie Anne will be attempting to win her 7th straight race, but she’s facing a much stronger field than the ones she met at Saratoga. It’s also unlikely that she’ll be able to secure the lead with Bluegrass Flag and Frost Wise in the race, so I’m somewhat against her. A number of 3-year-old fillies exit the Fleet Indian at Saratoga. Take Charge Aubrey may go off at the shortest price of those, but I actually prefer Split Time and English Soul. Both may be more adept at today’s distance than Take Charge Aubrey and I thought they ran stronger races in the Fleet Indian. I’m using them, but my top pick is the quickly improving 4-year-old filly Tiznow’s Smile. This is not the kind of horse that I would typically gravitate towards, but I think her connections are wisely taking a shot in an ambitious spot while she’s in the best form of her career. Going back to her 2-year-old season, she was highly regarded, as Charlton Baker ran her against stakes company multiple times while she was still a maiden. During that period, she presented herself as a filly that would relish longer distances, and she’s certainly bred for stamina as a half-sister to route stakes winners Wildcat’s Smile and Johannesburg Smile as well as Empire Classic entrant Blugrascat’s Smile. This filly spent a long time disappointing her connections and supporters with a string of inexplicably poor performances since early 2017. For whatever reason, she’s completely turned her life around in the past few months, as she rallied impressively two back at Saratoga and then took another step forward to beat open company with an impressive late rush on Sep. 15. She did have all the best of it in those races, benefitting for a fast pace two back and riding a gold rail last time. On the other hand, she won that last race with such dominance and power, so I’m open to the possibility that she may finally be ready to stretch out and deliver on that early promise. She’s going to get a fast pace to close into and the price should be generous once again.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 7,9,12
Trifecta: 8,12 with 8,12 with 1,2,4,6,7,9,11