PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 2:   7 - 6 - 4 - 8
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 5:   8 - 3 - 1 - 9
Race 6:   3 - 8 - 11 - 1
Race 7:   1 - 3 - 8 - 9
Race 8:   7 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 9:   7 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 10:   6 - 4 - 1 - 8
Race 11:   10 - 4 - 1 - 3

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: DROSELMEYR’S SMILE (#7)
I’m against the morning line favorite, Pure Silver. She’s the class of this field, having won the Grade 2 Adirondack at Saratoga. However, she did so with the help of an inside speed-biased course. She got cooked in a fast pace in the Spinaway, which is a valid excuse, but I just don’t see her getting better with added distance. I respect the Joseph A. Gimma winner, Held Accountable, who has done nothing wrong in two career two starts. I’ll use her, but my top pick is Droselmeyr’s Smile. This filly ran a competitive speed figure in her debut, closing effectively from off the pace in the mud. I don’t know what happened at Finger Lakes last time, but that was an oddly run race and I’m willing to forgive it. She’s bred to appreciate added ground as a half-sister to a few solid route winners. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and she should be able to take advantage.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,6,8

RACE 3: ABSATOOTLY (#4)
At first glance, this looks like a two-horse race between Picco Uno and Quezon. I think you have to use both, but I’m interested in Absatootly off her trips when finishing behind the two favorites in her last two starts. Two back in the Union Avenue, she was steadied after the start and found herself at the back of the pack. From there, she made a wide, premature move up to challenge for the lead by the quarter pole before understandably tiring late. Last time, she was obviously never beating the top two finishers, but her four-wide trip did not help. This filly is in solid form right now and has a realistic chance to pull off an upset.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with 1,5

RACE 6: BIG GEMMY (#3)
This race should feature an honest early pace with stretching-out sprinters such as Stoney Bennett, Battle Station, and Lover’s Leap in the mix. Therefore, I’m most interested in horses that should be coming from off the pace. The one to fear is We Should Talk, who won his debut impressively in fast time, and goes out for a dangerous barn. I’ll be using him, but my top pick is Big Gemmy. I really liked this colt’s maiden score at Saratoga two back, as he finished powerfully going seven furlongs. Notably, he’s the only horse in this race with experience going a route of ground on the dirt, having finished fifth in the Grade 3 Iroquois last time. I thought he was somewhat tentatively ridden that day, as his rider appeared to give up too early. This time, Luis Saez is back aboard and he should work out a great closing trip.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,7,8,11
Trifecta: 3 with 1,8,11 with 1,2,7,8,11

RACE 7: D’YER MAK’ER (#1)
Discretionary Marq, the full brother to Grade 1 winner Discreet Marq, is clearly the horse to beat and will likely go off at a short price. However, he was allowed to set an extremely slow pace in his maiden score and faces a much different task in his first start against winners. I’m taking a shot against him with D’yer Mak’er, who ran extremely well at this level last time. That race did not set up for closers, and he launched a strong late rally from last place to nearly get up for the win. The stretch-out to seven furlongs should help.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,8,9

RACE 8: GOLD FOR THE KING (#7)
This is one of the most competitive stakes on the card. The horse to beat might be Weekend Hideaway, who always seems to show up with solid efforts in these New York-bred stakes. I’ll use him, along with the logical pair of Ostrolenka and T Loves a Fight, who have both been in great form. However, my top pick at what should be a more generous price is Gold for the King. I just think that he’s finally back in the right spot after experimenting with routing back in July, and dabbling in graded stakes company prior to that. He got a ridiculous four-wide trip when he lost as the heavy favorite at Finger Lakes two back, so he’s in better form than it seems. He was running races fast enough to compete at this level in the spring, and he’s been working strongly for this return.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,5,6,8

RACE 10: BONITA BIANCA (#6)
Literata and Jcs American Dream finished first and second in the Saratoga Dew back in August at Saratoga, but I think this came up as a significantly tougher race, primarily due to the presence of a few talented 3-year-olds. The horse to beat might be Verdant Pastures, who destroyed a field at Saratoga last time and earned a strong speed figure in doing so. The only problem is that she’s never been successful rating and Might Be will be intent on taking the early lead in this race. Therefore, I’m hoping that fellow 3-year-old Bonita Bianca can come running late. She was taken out of her preferred style last time to chase the talented Sunset Ridge, who would be formidable in this spot. Bonita Bianca showed some talent as a younger horse and I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best of her in two starts this year.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5,8