by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 8 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 3: 9 - 2 - 4 - 10
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 6: 5 - 6 - 9 - 7
Race 7: 4 - 10 - 7 - 2/2B
Race 8: 4 - 8 - 1 - 7
Race 9: 9 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 10: 6 - 7 - 2 - 11
RACE 1: MANDATORY (#6)
Forza Di Oro was dismissed at 31-1 in his debut, but he’s going to be a tiny fraction of that price this time given how well he ran that day. He dwelt badly at the start, leaving the gates about 4 to 5 lengths behind the field. He continued to lag well back for a half-mile, but then advanced on the turn with a rush. He challenged for the lead in upper stretch before understandably flattening out in the last furlong. Trainer Bill Mott rarely has his 2-year-olds cranked up for their debuts, so this colt figures to improve, and the vastly improved workout times since that initial start support that notion. He needs to break better this time, but there’s obviously a ton of talent here. However, there are some other intriguing second-time starters to consider at better prices. Brother Brad debuted going two turns at Monmouth, and he stayed on well despite enduring a wide journey. This son of Belmont Stakes runner-up Commissioner appears to have some size to him and presents as one that should want to run all day. I’m using both of these prominently, but my top pick is the stretching-out Mandatory. This expensive 2-year-old purchase has a regal pedigree, being a son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and a half-brother to multiple Grade 1-winning dirt router I’m a Chatterbox. Based on that breeding, the 6 furlongs of his debut was probably too short for him, and he ran like one that would want more ground. He had to go wide on the turn, traveled greenly in upper stretch, and only hit his best stride in the last sixteenth of a mile. John Kimmel has been having a strong year with his juveniles and this one appears to have some talent.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 4,5
RACE 5: SEISMIC WAVE (#4)
Front Run the Fed is going to be a fairly short price in this spot as he attempts to collect a second consecutive stakes victory. He beat today’s rival Bourbon War by only a half-length at Saratoga, but he accomplished that victory in impressive fashion, making a rush from last to take over in midstretch. He got the two turns that day, but this one-turn configuration should be right up his alley. I’m hardly against him, but I do think that he might be slightly overbet given that he’s going out for a barn whose runners tend to attract inordinate support. Bourbon War is worth considering as he turns back to a mile. He didn’t pose a threat in the Hill Prince, but he should encounter a more favorable set of circumstances here. I’m using him, but the horse that I’d rather take out of the Hill Prince is Seismic Wave. I know that he’s been a disappointment for Bill Mott, but you can make plenty of excuses for this horse. It’s possible that he just didn’t want to go 10 furlongs in the Belmont and Saratoga derbies, so I don’t mind this turnback to the one-mile distance at all. He had an uncomfortable trip in the Saranac two back, as he was steadied at a critical point on the far turn when attempting to launch a rally. It’s not unreasonable to suggest he might have won that race with a clean trip. Then last time, like Bourbon War, he never had a chance to get into the Hill Prince, which was dominated on the front end. He also wasn’t helped by getting rank behind the slow pace. This time the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and his TimeformUS Late Pace Rating of 114 is the highest in the field.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,7,8
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,3,7,8
RACE 6: HAIL MICHIGAN (#5)
Malthael figure to be the slight favorite in this spot, but this horse is starting to run out of chances. He’s hit the board in all three of his turf starts this season and has earned speed figure that make him competitive here. However, he too often finds trouble or just seems to run into a horse that’s a little better. He was finishing well going the one-mile distance last time, but he was never a serious threat to winner Chantry Flats. Now he attempts to stretch out to 9 furlongs, and I’m not sure that added distance is the answer, considering that he’s a half-brother to top sprinter A. P. Indian. I’m using him, but I don’t think he’s a great bet at a short price. Tiberius Maximus also makes some sense, but he’s had trouble putting races together in recent months and now he returns for a new barn. This race feels like one that could be ripe for a new face to emerge, so I want to take a look at some of those. Stare Decisis has to be considered as a potentially live Chad Brown firster. This son of Noble Mission has more than enough turf pedigree, being a half-brother to a turf stakes-placed runner. He’s been working at Monmouth in recent months, most recently going in company with the maiden Border Town. My top pick is the first time turfer Hail Michigan. This colt debuted going a mile on dirt for Barclay Tagg and he actually earned a respectable speed figure despite losing by a large margin. While Bernardini isn’t the greatest turf influence, the dam’s side of his pedigree is all turf. His dam never ran on dirt and earned her only victory on turf, and she is a half-sister to some excellent international runners, including Australian Group 1 winner Homesman and British Group 1-placed runner U S Ranger. This is also the female family of Dynaformer. It’s a good sign that John Velazquez takes this mount for Tagg and the horse should have no trouble handling the added distance.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,7,9
RACE 8: TRUE TIMBER (#4)
It’s exciting to see Maximum Security back in action as he turns back to contest this Bold Ruler, which he’ll use as a prep to springboard to the Cigar Mile later this autumn. It’s fairly obvious that he’s going to be a major threat in this race if he shows up with this best effort, as his Haskell-winning TimeformUS Speed Figure of 128 is the highest number in this field. However, he’s returning from a setback that forced him to miss the Pennsylvania Derby. While he was successful going shorter early in this career, he was competing against vastly inferior rivals. Furthermore, he’s drawn the rail in a race with some other speed, so he could find himself having to come from just off the pace if he doesn’t break sharply. I’m using him defensively, but I think this is the time to take a shot against him at what figures to be a very short price. I’m interested in a couple of horses exiting the Kelso as the primary alternatives. Prince Lucky is most logical as he just missed last time when run down by Pat On the Back. He’s clearly good enough to beat this field, but the turnback to 7 furlongs is a bit of a question mark for a horse who hasn’t sprinted since his 2-year-old season. I instead prefer True Timber. He was returning from a layoff in the Kelso, and he actually ran quite well to be third after contesting the pace. He had excuses for his poor efforts last winter, so I won’t hold those against him. Unlike Prince Lucky, 7 furlongs is arguably True Timber’s best distance so this turnback should be perfect for him. He appears to be working better leading up to this race and he would be a handful if he could recapture the form that carried him to a second-place finish in last year’s Cigar Mile.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,7,8
Trifecta: 4 with 1,7,8 with 1,2,6,7,8
RACE 9: BUY LAND AND SEE (#9)
Tiesto looks like the horse to beat off his visually impressive maiden score a few weeks ago. That race appeared to have some quality to it going in, and Tiesto just dominated that crew, taking over with a decisive move at the top of the stretch to win going away. This $600,000 2-year-old purchase looked to be worth every bit of that price tag and Mott’s runners tend to improve with experience. Though, he might not need to improve much at all off that performance to beat this field in his stakes debut. I’m using him prominently, but there are others to consider, including a few who also just broke their maidens in impressive fashion. My top pick is Buy Land and See, who romped to victory when stretched out at Parx last time. Going two turns and wearing blinkers for the first time, he was aggressive in the early stages, easily took over on the far turn, and just widened at will through the lane under Jose Ortiz. That 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure is one of the highest in this field and he seems like a horse who still has room for improvement, since many runners in this female family have gotten better with age. He loses Jose to his brother Irad, but that’s hardly a concern. It doesn’t hurt to have speed on this turf course, and he should sit a good stalking trip. I have no concerns about him getting the mile after a series of stamina-building workouts in recent weeks. I’d also include a horse like Get Smokin, who ran a fast time despite facing restricted maiden company last time. He clearly handles the distance and horses have come back out of that race to run well. As for those dropping in class, Talking faced Grade 1 foes in the Summer last time, but I’m not sure that this race actually came up much softer than that one. I could also use Irish Mias, but he needs to improve significantly off his Laurel Futurity win.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,5,8,10
Trifecta: 9 with 3,8 with 2,3,4,5,8,10