by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 8 - 2 (Dirt: 1 - 8 - 13 - 12)
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 5 - 6 - 9 - 4 (Dirt: 8 - 1 - 5 - 6)
Race 5: 2 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 6: 6 - 12 - 5 - 11 (Dirt: 9 - 13 - 7 - 6)
Race 7: 10 - 3 - 9 - 6
Race 8: 8 - 6 - 2 - 7 (Dirt: 1 - 8 - 3 - 4)
Race 9: 3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 10: 9 - 2 - 4 - 5 (Dirt: 8 - 9 - 6 - 12)
RACE 3: ABRAXAN (#2)
A number of lightly-raced fillies are coming into this race with similar speed figures. Two exit the same Sep. 20 maiden heat won by Sadie Lady. Forever Changed may attract the most support of the pair, since she had obvious trouble at the top of the stretch when she had to steady out of a tight spot at the top of the stretch. On the other hand, she saved ground for much of the way over a track that was favoring inside speed. I actually prefer Awesome Alana, who raced wider than Forever Changed and was more compromised by the slow pace after breaking towards the back of the pack. She will probably move forward in her second start, but she also rates to get overbet since she’s trained by Chad Brown. I want to bet Abraxan. The general expectation is that off-the-turf races weaker than those scheduled for dirt, but I’m not so sure that’s the case when it comes to the 9th race on Oct. 3. There appeared to be some well-meant first time starters in that field, and a large group of 12 runners participated. The winner, Kept True, returned to finish a strong third in the Maid of the Mist, so the form holds up. Abraxan ran very well within the context of that race, as she had to be hard-sent to contest the pace from her outside draw, and she fought on gamely to nearly hang onto second after fending off multiple challenges. She had worked well into that race, and I think this speedy has some real ability. Luis Saez figures to make good use of her ample early zip once again.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4
RACE 4: A THREAD OF BLUE (#5)
If this race stays on turf, Empire of War is probably going to be favored. He certainly showed a preference for this surface when he made his turf debut three weeks ago, dominating a solid group of maidens on the front end. However, that race was run when the rails were set to zero feet on both turf courses, and the ground down toward the hedge was fresh. Horses racing inside had a distinct advantage, and Empire of War saved ground every step of the way after crossing over to take the lead in the first furlong. He can still win here, but I prefer another horse exiting the maiden ranks. A Thread of Blue, who would also be a strong contender on dirt, actually ran very well in his only turf start on Sept. 8. Current, the winner of that race, returned to win the Grade 3 Bourbon next time out at Keeneland. The entire field was pretty strung out behind him, and A Thread of Blue did well to make up some ground in the final furlong after having to alter course around a tiring rival at the top of the stretch. The turf course was on the softer side of “good” that day, so he clearly handles some give in the ground, which he likely would encounter if this race stays on the grass. I think he has more upside than Empire of War, and he’s my top pick. I prefer these horses to the pair exiting the Laurel Futurity, as the winner, Order and Law, was very much a beneficiary of favorable circumstances that day.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,6,9
Trifecta: 5 with 6,9 with ALL
RACE 8: GOLDEN BROWN (#8)
Rain in the forecast could have a major impact on this race as well. As long as he participates, Therapist is the horse to beat. While he lost to some of today’s rivals in the Saranac last time, a two-turn, 1 1/8-mile race was always going to be a stretch for him. He’s a true miler, so the one-turn configuration at Belmont is really ideal for him. While he was beating inferior company in New York-bred races earlier this year, he nevertheless ran some fast speed figures, suggesting that he’s maintained his good form from earlier in the year. If he shows up, he’s going to be a handful, but this is still a pretty competitive spot. I’m against many of the other short prices. Rose’s Vision beat eventual Hill Prince winner Have At It in the Better Talk Now at Saratoga, but he got a much better trip that day, and I’ll be somewhat surprised if he’s able to repeat that performance against a tougher field. Sand Dancer ran the race of his life to be second in the Hill Prince last time, and while he did set an honest pace, he was riding the rail the entire way at a time when that was a huge advantage. I would rather take a horse who was racing off the inside in the Hill Prince, and Golden Brown fits the bill. I know he hasn’t been competitive in a pair of stakes attempts in New York, but this English Channel is an easier spot than either the Saranac or the Hill Prince, and he really had no chance given his trip last time. He’s been successful going nine furlongs in the past, but I actually think he might appreciate this slight turnback to a mile. His versatile running style should allow him to work out a trip, and he figures to be a square price.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,5,6,7
RACE 9: TRUE TIMBER (#3)
Coal Front is an enigma. It’s possible that he may just be faster than this field as he returns from a 13-month layoff. However, this is not a typical move for the Todd Pletcher barn. Over the past five years, Pletcher is just 2 for 14 ($0.87 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 180 days or more in graded stakes on dirt. Furthermore, when you really dig into this runner’s form from last year, there are issues. He rode a golden rail to victory in the Amsterdam, and he benefited from a slow early pace when he took down the Gallant Bob. Those are his two fastest speed figures, so I’m not totally convinced that he’s quite as talented as he seems at first glance. I’ll use him defensively, but I prefer those with recency. No Dozing makes plenty of sense as an alternative, but he doesn’t really excite. He ran pretty well in the Forego, as he got spun wide off the far turn and had to rally down the center of the track. Then last time, he rushed up to chase the pace two wide over a strip that may have been favoring rail runners. However, he broke slowly in those last two starts, and it would be detrimental to his chances if he did so again while breaking from the rail. Therefore, I prefer True Timber. I’ve never been this runner’s biggest supporter, but I cannot deny that Kiaran McLaughlin has him in the best form of his career. He ran a legitimately fast race to defeat Patternrecognition two back at Saratoga, and that one returned to win the Kelso over No Dozing. While True Timber was not as visually impressive last time, he was hindered by having to race two or three wide over a very rail-biased surface. Seven furlongs is his best distance, and I think he’s most likely to capitalize if Coal Front fails to show up.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4 with 1,4,5,6