by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 1/1A - 2 - 3
Race 3: 10 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 9 - 6 - 10 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 8 - 9 - 6
Race 6: 5 - 7 - 12 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 9: 1 - 7 - 11 - 6
Race 10: 1 - 4 - 6 - 9
RACE 1: DOUBLE CAST (#6)
I suppose Ormolu Lu is the horse to beat here. Once again, there is not much pace signed on for this race, and she could work out a similar trip to the one she got last time, when she was able to set dawdling early fractions. However, I'm just not sold on her overall ability, and it's not a great sign that she was entered for a claiming tag last week before getting scratched out of that spot. If I'm going to bet anyone back out of that Sept. 29 race, it's Double Cast. She stumbled at the start, which put her further back behind that slow pace than she otherwise would have been. From there, she was never really in a comfortable position, getting sandwiched between horses while not having a clear path for much of the stretch drive. She's obviously better than that, and a return to any of her prior performances over the summer would make her the horse to beat.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7
RACE 3: CHASINDAMONEY (#10)
I'm not trying to beat the morning-line favorite, Chasindamoney, who just appears to be a very likely winner of this race. Like so many Linda Rice first-time starters, this colt ran his debut like he badly needed a start, as he was sluggish and green throughout. He was much more professional last time, and put in a much stronger effort than his 10-length defeat would suggest. He was contesting a very fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) that came apart late. The winner drew off by over eight lengths, and Chasindamoney did well to hang on for fourth. The turnback to six furlongs should be to his liking.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,3,11,12
Trifecta: 10 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,11,12
RACE 5: BLOCKADE (#5)
Congruity is going to be pretty tough to beat, and is a deserving favorite. He was contesting a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) that fell apart in the late stages last time. Despite making the first move into that taxing pace at the quarter pole, he dug in gamely to hold for second. He'll be a big part of my play, but I want to take a shot with Blockade at a slightly better price. This horse showed some promise in his debut finishing a good third behind the talented Voting Control. Then last time, I thought he just didn't get the right ride, as he was stymied behind and between horses for much of the running, and only got out at the eighth pole. Even at that point, he had another runner right to his outside, and he just never seemed comfortable. I like the switch to Jose Ortiz, and I think we'll see an improved effort this time.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 6,8,9,10
Trifecta: 5,8 with 5,8 with 4,6,9,10,11,12
RACE 7: TIME AND MOTION (#5)
If Off Limits repeats her win in the Noble Damsel, the rest of this field is running for second. Where did that race come from, and is she going to be able to replicate it? At a very short price, I'm taking a small shot against her running quite that well against this larger and deeper field. Therefore, I'm hoping that Time and Motion can turn the tables at a much more attractive price. Jimmy Toner has had a frustrating season with Time and Motion, as she's been plagued by issues and layoffs. He indicated that her last run was just a prep race, and he finally feels like he has her heading in the right direction heading into this spot. I'm not totally convinced that her best race is good enough to beat the Noble Damsel-winning version of Off Limits, but she's certainly good enough to handle everyone else if that one doesn't show up.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,7,12
Trifecta: 5,7 with 5,7 with 1,3,12
RACE 9: TALE OF S’AVALL (#1)
Seymourdini has been installed as the morning-line favorite, and he's certainly the most intriguing runner in here. He's been untouchable so far in 2017, winning all of his starts by double-digit margins. However, he's coming off a significant layoff and this is his toughest test yet. I think this is the right time to play against him. The two runners that I fear most are Stallwalkin' Dude and Divining Rod. However, the seven-furlong distance may be a little problematic for both of them. Stallwalkin' Dude is better going a bit shorter and Divining Rod probably needs at least a mile to show his best. Therefore, I think this race could open up to some of the bigger prices, and the one that I want is Tale of S'Avall. I've always been fond of this horse, and I think he's finally stepping up his game now as a 4-year-old. He was riding a strong rail at Saratoga two back, but he still ran well to win at today's distance, and did so in fast time. Then last time, I thought he ran pretty well in the Grade 1 Forego, attacking the pace of Drefong before just getting passed for third in the final strides. He's a horse that doesn't mind making inside runs, so I actually like this rail post position for him.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 6,7,9,10,11
RACE 10: WAY EARLY (#1)
War Chest is likely to go off as the favorite, but I'm a little skeptical of this runner at what figures to be a very short price. He got a perfect trip to break his maiden in his debut, closing into a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs). Shug McGaughey only gets a 60 Trainer Rating with horses coming off maiden wins, and I think he could be vulnerable in this spot. There is a fair amount of speed in this field, and the front-running type that I prefer is Bourbon Currency. I thought he was game to win his turf debut last time, fending off today's rival Devine Entry in the late stages, and he's certainly bred to stretch out in distance. I'll use him, but my top pick is the New York-bred, Way Early. I know he was beating a much weaker field last time, but I love the way he did it. He got a fair pace to close into, but he was just gobbling up ground with huge strides through the final quarter mile and galloped out far ahead of the field in a visually impressive performance. Furthermore, the fourth-place finisher in that race, who also closed from off the pace, returned to win his next start with an improved speed figure.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,6,9,10