by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 4 - 1A - 3 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 3: 7 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 5: 3 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 11 - 5 - 8 - 12
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 9 - 1
Race 9: 7 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 10: 3 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 11: 6 - 3 - 10 - 11
RACE 4: MAEDEAN (#6)
This race is all about the second time starters. The one that I prefer is Maedean, who made her debut on Sep. 8 in the same race as Lucky Dime. While that filly finished ahead of her, she was one of many horses who rode the rail on a day when that was clearly the place to be. All of the top 3 finishers rode the rail for a significant portion of that race whereas Maedean was racing outside after a tardy break. All things considered, I thought she stayed on very well in a race that didn’t exactly set up for her. She was well-supported that day off a series of solid workouts, and it’s a good sign that John Velazquez stays put in a race where he certainly had some other options. However, there are some others in here who have a right to take a step forward. Harlem Heights also rode a rail bias in her debut on September 14, but she was briefly steadied on the far turn that day and never quite while chasing an impressive winner. Now she gets Lasix for her second start and she’s certainly bred to stretch out as a half-sister to Point of Entry and Pine Island. I could also use Always a Queen, who was extremely wide in her Saratoga debut and should appreciate more ground.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,5
RACE 5: FINAL FRONTIER (#3)
The word was out when Shekky Shebaz arrived in Saratoga for that claimer in July. He won in impressive fashion and was acquired by Dubb et al and trainer Jason Servis soon after. His debut for the new connections in the Lucky Coin resulted in a resounding victory, but he did benefit from a lack of speed in that race. He may have to work harder to make the lead here with Gidu in the race, but even that one could be hardpressed to get in front if this horse displays the same gate speed he showed last time. The stretch-out to 6 furlongs is a minor hurdle, but there’s no denying that he’s the “now” horse. I’m just not sure I want him at a short price. The beaten favorite in that Lucky Coin was Disco Partner. The venerable New York-bred will be attempting to win this race for the third consecutive year, but he’s winless in 2019 and it’s probably fair to say that he’s lost a step. It would be great to see this fan favorite go out with one last hurrah, but he’s hard to endorse from a wagering standpoint. I’m trying to beat this pair with Final Frontier. The Goldolphin colt has found his niche as a turf sprinter, earning a series of TimeformUS Speed Figures that put him squarely in the mix against this group. He was off about a length behind Shekky Shebaz last time and he was never able to get closer as that one led throughout. He will have to hope a horse like Gidu or perhaps his stablemate Fully Vested pesters the favorite on the front end, and that’s a possibility according to the Pace Projector. Final Frontier should sit a good stalking trip regardless, and I believe he can turn the tables on the favorite going this 6-furlong distance.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 5,7 with 2,4,5,6,7
RACE 7: COST BASIS (#11)
The horses with experience appear to have the upper hand in this intriguing maiden event. The first time starters appear to be led by the expensive yearling purchase Vintage Print, but Chad Brown doesn’t always have these types ready to fire in their debuts. He’s been outworked by a few stablemates in some recent drills, and appeared to be no match for the easier-going Cost Basis when they teamed up in the morning on Sep. 21. Perhaps the mile is what he needs, but he’s not working like a horse who’s ready to fire first time out. Cost Basis, on the other hand, is my top pick. This Chad Brown trainee landed in what appeared to be a pretty loaded maiden race when he made his debut at Saratoga. While the speed figures for that heat didn’t come up very fast, I thought Cost Basis never really had a chance to show what he could do. He was chasing inside early after breaking from the rail and just never seemed comfortable. Javier Castellano basically wrapped up on him late in what amounted to a learning experience. This time, he’s drawn a much better post position for this long run down the backstretch, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on or near the lead. He continues to train like a good horse and he figures to be a square price. Sonneman is arguably the horse to beat after finishing second in his most recent start at Saratoga. He stepped forward out of his debut and is bred to continue improving with distance. I have no knocks against him, other than the fact that he might be the favorite in a wide-open affair. I’d also consider Cowtown, who stayed on evenly going a demanding 9 furlongs in his debut. He should have gotten some needed fitness out of that race and lures John Velazquez for his second start.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 5,8,9,12
RACE 8: DIGITAL AGE (#5)
These 3-year-old turf runners just took turns beating each other during the recently completed Turf Trinity series, making them difficult to separate. A Thread of Blue is arguably the horse to beat this time after putting forth a valiant effort in the Jockey Club Derby last time. A mile and a half is just too far for him, yet he led the field into the stretch before getting swallowed up by the Euros. He will certainly appreciate the turnback to 9 furlongs, and the Pace Projector is predicting he will be on the lead in a situation where he is the only confirmed leader in the field. If he can recapture his Saratoga Derby form, he’ll be tough, but I also don’t want to settle for the potential favorite in such a wide-open race. Henley’s Joy should also appreciate the turnback, but I want to take a different horse from that Turf Trinity series. Digital Age failed to win any of those races, but he ran well in the two shortest legs. Last time out in the Jockey Club Derby, he just wanted no part of the 1 1/2 miles, and he also made a premature backstretch move after getting too keen under Javier Castellano. Now he’s reunited with his regular pilot Irad Ortiz, and I think he’s going to work out a more appropriate trip. He still might be somewhat pace-compromised, but he ran down A Thread of Blue under similar circumstances in the American Turf earlier this year. He’s my top pick, but there are many others to consider. Bourbon War ran a fast figure last time, but I want to see him back that race up. Seismic Wave had trouble in the Saranac and can do better here. I would even throw in Uncle Benny, who showed a ton of promise as a 2-year-old and may appreciate more ground.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,6,9
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,9 with ALL
RACE 9: CHANNEL MAKER (#7)
Six of the seven runners in this Turf Classic faced off in the Bowling Green at Saratoga and they all finished within 1 1/4 lengths of each other. Sadler’s Joy was last of that sextet across the wire, but he had significant trouble that day, stymied in traffic down on the rail. He rebounded nicely to be a strong second to the now-sidelined Annals of Time in the Sword Dancer last time and he would be tough to beat if able to repeat that effort here. However, Sadler’s Joy is always at the mercy of the pace and his riders notoriously have trouble timing his move correctly. Jose Lezcano learned that lesson last time as he hit the front too soon and found himself having to battle back inside of the winner late. He’s the horse to beat this time, but I wouldn’t want to take him as the potential favorite. There isn’t much speed in this field. The Pace Projector is predicting that Cross Border may find himself on the lead, but it’s difficult to know what to expect from a horse who’s never gone this far before. I believe that Channel Maker may sit the right trip this time and he’s my top pick in this race. He’s finished fourth in three consecutive races, but he’s actually run quite well in all of them. That was especially true in the Sword Dancer last time as he contested an honest pace set by Ya Primo, who faded badly, and was still battling it out in the final furlong. He’s always been a difficult horse to ride, so John Velazquez might be wise to just let him run freely, as Jose Ortiz did when they went wire to wire in this race last year.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 7 with 2,5,6 with 1,2,3,5,6
RACE 10: GREEN LIGHT GO (#3)
I had originally been interested in Three Technique as a potential upsetter in this Champagne, but he was declared out of this race on Friday morning. Therefore, I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite Green Light Go. I’ve been a fan of this horse since his debut and there’s no reason to abandon him now given what’s left in this field. He was still a little green in that Saratoga Special score, but he finished up like a horse who should have no trouble stretching out to the mile. His sprint-oriented pedigree indicates that he may ultimately have trouble going much farther than this, but that’s a concern for another day. He doesn’t need to be the lead, so Junior Alvarado should have him in a good stalking position. As long as he continues his upward trajectory, I believe he’ll win. However, he does face at least one serious rival in the New York-bred Tiz the Law. This colt was visually impressive in his debut and the runner-up has returned to validate that flashy speed figure. We’ve seen a few of these Constitution progeny be pretty precocious, so he has to prove that he can stretch out in distance now. I don’t believe it will be a problem, but he does get tested for class. I don’t think there’s a major gap in ability between these two favorites, but I have to give Green Light Go the nod on this occasion. Alpha Sixty Six isn’t completely out of this, since he actually did well to overcome a mild rail bias first time out. Yet he has to run a lot faster in his second start than he did in his debut.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,7 with 1,2,5,6,7