by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 3 - 9
Race 3: 9 - 3 - 6 - 10
Race 4: 2 - 3 - 4 - 8
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 6: 5 - 10 - 4 - 1
Race 7: 2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 8: 1 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 9: 3 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 10: 9 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 11: 3 - 7 - 9 - 1
RACE 2: MALTHAEL (#1)
Of those with experience, Hubba Bubba brings the best credentials to this affair. He handled the turf well in his initial try over the surface last time, while just getting passed by the talented Spirit Animal in the late stages. He’s going to be a much shorter price this time, but I don’t want to dismiss him since he fits the likely race flow very well. It’s difficult to predict how much pace there will be in the early stages, and he figures to be forwardly placed, if not on the lead, from this inside post position. That could be a significant advantage over a rail-biased Widener course. I’m using him prominently, but I prefer the runner posted just to his inside. Malthael’s turf debut last time out was a little disappointing. Better was expected out of him – at least by me – given how well he trained in the mornings and his excellent pedigree, as a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner A. P. Indian. I still think this son of Noble Mission has some ability, and I want to give him another chance. The pace never materialized in that Sep. 8 affair and he really had no chance to close in a race where few horses did any passing. Now he gets Lasix for his second turf try. Over the past five years, Christophe Clement is 16 for 68 (24 percent, $2.25 ROI) with maidens adding Lasix for the first time in turf races. I like his inside draw, and I would expect to see him show a bit more early speed this time. All of the other horses that I would consider are first time starters. North Dakota is obviously bred to be a nice horse as a half-brother to top sire War Front. I would also use Traveling and Tintoretto, who both may get ignored in the wagering.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,9
RACE 5: BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE (#6)
Satisfy is likely to go off as the prohibitive favorite as she seeks her fourth win in five career starts while stepping up in class. This filly has looked great thus far, losing only to the Grade 1-placed Still There on a sloppy track. On the other hand, she’s yet to run so fast as to suggest that she is deserving of the support she is likely to receive. I acknowledge that she is the most likely winner based on consistency and upside, but I just think she’s going to offer bad value in this spot. I’m not too fond of the filly drawn directly to her outside. Big Birthday was visually impressive when winning her maiden last time, but that was a very weak field for the level, and I’m just not convinced that she possesses the talent to beat this group. Piedi Bianchi is more interesting. She actually ran fine in her return back in June, but it’s pretty weird that they ran her in the Alabama. She’s back in the right spot, but Todd Pletcher doesn’t have the best record of getting horses like this back on the right path. I’m taking a shot against these with Bluegrass Jamboree. She’s not the most reliable runner in this field, but I think she’s good enough to win on her best day, and she’s going to be an inviting price. She finished behind Piedi Bianchi two back, but that was also her return from a lengthy layoff, and she was actually right in contention until the late stages. I thought she took a big step forward last time against what was arguably a tougher field than this one. The slight cutback to six furlongs helps her, and she has historically run her best races at Belmont Park.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,5
RACE 7: BLIND AMBITION (#2)
Disco Partner is likely to go off as the favorite once again despite disappointing at short prices in each of his last two starts. You can make excuses for both of those performances. A mile against top competition is just a bit too much for him to handle, and then he clearly didn’t handle the soft turf course in the Troy last time. The inner turf course should be somewhere between “good” and “yielding” on Saturday, and that’s still a minor concern. This horse has done his best work over very firm courses in the past and I’m somewhat concerned that we may not see the best version of him in this spot. Some give in the ground is less of a concern for his uncoupled stablemate Pure Sensation, who seems to run over anything. The biggest question for him is the stretch-out, since he does his best work at 5 furlongs. His last race would appear to indicate that he’s back in top form, so I think he’s dangerous here. However, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, as he is likely to receive early pressure from Pocket Change and Gidu. I’m taking a shot against this pair with Blind Ambition. This Todd Pletcher trainee has failed to find the winner’s circle since his impressive win in the Elusive Quality back in the spring. He was no match for a few of today’s rivals in the Jaipur in June, but that race was run over a very firm course. Blind Ambition is one of the few in this race that has proven his affinity for less than firm ground. He was arguably best in the Troy two back when he was the only horse to make a late run after loose on the lead winner Sandy’z Slew. I won’t hold his Kentucky Downs race against him, since that’s a tricky course to navigate. He figures to sit a great trip just in behind the dueling leaders and he’s going to be a much more inviting price than his two main rivals.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with 1,5,6,7,8
RACE 8: DREAMCALL (#1)
Wow Cat is going to be favored based more on reputation than on performance. That’s not to say that she hasn’t run well. She was pretty game to soldier on for second in the Shuvee off a long layoff this summer, and she was never going to be any match for Abel Tasman or Elate last time. On the other hand, it’s not as if she showed significant improvement in that Personal Ensign, so she’s yet to establish that she’s actually faster than her rivals. Do you really want to accept a short price on her given that she probably will need to improve again? Divine Miss Grey is the most talented alternative, but I worry about her getting the nine-furlong distance. This Danny Gargan trainee is incredibly versatile, and she’s been well managed this year. However, she is going to have to deal with other speeds in this race since Come Dancing and Farrell are basically committed to be sent to the front. If this turns into a demanding test of stamina, she’s in trouble. I have no problem with Verve’s Tale, who just barely missed behind Wow Cat two back in the Shuvee. She seems to do her best work at this 9-furlong distance and Barclay Tagg has been enjoying a solid run over the past few months. I’m using her, but I actually prefer another closer who figures to go off at an even bigger price. Dreamcall made her New York debut in the Royal Delta last time and was uncompetitive against a pair of today’s rivals. However, I don’t think circumstances were in her favor that day. That sloppy track was favoring speed, and she clearly didn’t handle her first start over a wet surface. She’s going to get a fast track on Saturday, so I’m willing to forgive that last effort. Earlier this summer, she had been improving quickly, making wild late runs to get up to win a pair of races at Prairie Meadows. Divine Miss Grey may have run the better race two back in the Molly Pitcher, given the way the track was playing, but I thought Dreamcall may not have handled the turns well, as she really got going in the lane. She should appreciate this stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles more than her rivals, and a horse like her is supposed to be well suited to Belmont Park. If she gets an honest pace to run at, I think she’s going to outrun her odds.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,3,5,8
RACE 10: AURELIUS MAXIMUS (#9)
This Champagne drew a stellar field. The horse with the strongest black-type credentials is Call Paul, but he won a soft edition of the Sanford and is a dubious prospect to handle the stretch-out. I’m most interested in those coming off maiden wins, and that crew is led by Complexity. He was arguably the most impressive 2-year-old debut winner at Saratoga, as he drew off powerfully despite having to rush up to contest the pace after a poor start. He has to stretch his speed to a mile here, but he gets the pedigree to do so from his female family. A bigger concern is that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. He figures to get early company from Trophy Chaser and Call Paul, who also are stretching out. He’s a formidable presence, but he’s also a short price in a competitive race. Endorsed and Code of Honor won their debuts on the same day at Saratoga. Both got very good trips, and Endorsed may have defeated the tougher field while running slightly faster. I think he’s a candidate to improve with added distance, but I don’t want to just discount the chances of Code of Honor. Shug McGaughey rarely has horses cranked to win first time out, and I think this one may have real talent. I’m using all of these runners, but my top pick is Aurelius Maximus. He’s yet to run quite as fast as his stablemate, but I loved the ease with which he won his maiden going this distance last month. He’s versatile enough to come from off the pace, and I get the sense that he still has room for improvement.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,4,8
Trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 1,2,3,5,8
RACE 11: WANTAGH QUEEN (#3)
Recent maiden winner Something Joyful may go favored off her visually impressive score during the opening weekend of this meet. The effort was better than it appears, since she broke awkwardly and squeezed back at the start. Considering that she led most of the way in her only prior start, it was encouraging that she was able to change her running style so effectively. On the other hand, that was an unusually weak maiden field and the speed figure is merely mediocre. Beaux Arts is an intriguing alternative, since her early speed should be especially dangerous in this spot. The Widener turf course has been especially conducive to horses that can ride the rail, and she figures to secure the lead and cross over early. She does have a tendency to drift out late in her races, which is a concern, but she’s clearly talented enough to compete here if she shows up with her best effort. I’m using both of these fillies, but the one that I want to bet is Wantagh Queen. Trainer Mike Dini does an excellent job with the runners he brings to the NYRA circuit, and he appears to have this 7-year-old mare back in top form. She failed to get involved in a race at Belmont in July, but she rebounded with a very strong effort last time at Saratoga. That Aug. 30 race was dominated on the front end by Stonefactor, and it was run at a time when saving ground on the turf course was imperative while the rails were at 0 feet. Wantagh Queen raced 3-wide for most of her journey and was spun out into the 6-path coming into the stretch as she attempted to rally around horses. Considering that loss of momentum, she ran a remarkable race to get up for second. If she repeats that effort here, I think she’s going to be awfully tough to hold off. It also doesn’t hurt that she’s drawn an inside post position and gets another chance over a turf course with some give to it.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,7,9,10