PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   3 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 5:   9 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   6 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 8:   8 - 6 - 9 - 1
Race 9:   6 - 2 - 8 - 4
Race 10:   7 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 11:   4 - 7 - 1 - 12

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: HOOKUP (#1)
Copper Town figures to be the controlling speed given that all four of the other runners in this race have done their best work coming from off the pace. If Copper Town runs back to his maiden win, he may never look back, but I wasn't thrilled with the field he beat that day, and still want him to prove that he's quite this good. Co-favorite Patternrecognition has been unlucky to run into the likes of Coal Front, Takaful, and Mr. Crow in his three starts against winners, and now he must stretch out in distance for the first time. I'm trying to beat them both with Hookup. I was impressed by this runner's debut last fall at Aqueduct, when he looped the field and drew off with authority. Something clearly happened in the Remsen since he was off for so long after that, but now he returns off a solid effort at Saratoga in August. That day, he got somewhat of an uncomfortable trip as he had to weave his way through traffic in the final quarter-mile. If he takes a step forward off that, I think he can pull off the upset.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4
Trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with 2,3,4

RACE 6: TRIPLE DOG DARE (#3)
Allured has to be considered the horse to beat off his solid debut in August at Saratoga. The overall quality of the field he faced has yet to be proven one way or the other, but he ran well within the context of the race. However, now he faces a number of seemingly well-meant first-time starters. Two in particular interest me. The shorter price will be Montauk, who goes out for Todd Pletcher off a facile 10 1/5-second work at the OBS sale earlier this year. Unlike most precocious 2-year-olds, this runner is bred to go a distance, being by Medaglia d'Oro out of multiple Grade 2-winning router Indian Vale. However, the runner that I want to bet at a more attractive price is Triple Dog Dare. Rarely do you see a 2-year-old cover the kind of ground that he did in his 10 2/5-second workout at the Fasig-Tipton sale earlier this year, as he skipped through the stretch with huge strides. It's meaningful that he sold for as much as $270,000 since he really doesn't have any pedigree to speak of. Rudy Rodriguez knows how to have a 2-year-old ready for his debut, and he could slip through the cracks in this loaded race.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Box: 2,3,6

RACE 7: HELOOKSTHEPART (#6)
I have to bet Helooksthepart off his most recent effort at the Spa. Aug. 16 was a day in which horses were just not making up significant ground, and runners that stayed toward the inside on the main track appeared to have a distinct advantage. Furthermore, the eventual winner of that race, Full Salute, was allowed to set an extremely slow pace for the distance (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs). Despite having all of those factors against him, Helooksthepart made a visually impressive late rush from well off the pace. He made up about five lengths in the final eighth of a mile despite going wide, in a race where no one else made up significant ground. He's not projected to get a particularly favorable setup this time, but it may not matter if he runs back to his last performance.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,8

RACE 8: AVEENU MALCAINU (#8)
There are many runners to consider in this wide-open Champagne. Honorable Treasure earned the highest speed figure in the field in his maiden score, and that number was validated by runner-up Ezmosh returning to improve while winning next time out. Of the pair coming out of the Saratoga maiden race on Aug. 26, I prefer maiden Good Magic, who is bred to stretch out in distance and was somewhat against the grain of the track that day. Enticed is another runner that has a right to improve in his second start, but he will really need to do so given how slow his debut came back. I'll use all of these, but my top pick is the New York-bred Aveenu Malcainu. In a race where experience will come into play, I want this horse. He has been a professional sort right from the start, making eye-catching wide runs to victory at Saratoga in both of his starts. I know he wasn't facing quality fields in those races, but he ran competitive speed figures, and he doesn't figure to have any trouble handling this one-turn mile. Furthermore, his versatile running style should enable Luis Saez to work out a favorable trip.

Win: 8
Exacta Box: 6,8,9
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,10
Trifecta: 8 with 1,4,6,9 with 1,4,6,7,9,10,11

RACE 10: KEEN ICE (#7)
I'm not trying to get too creative in this Jockey Club Gold Cup. Keen Ice has simply run fast enough on enough occasions to win races like this, and I think he is a very deserving favorite. He showed in the Suburban two starts back that he can be placed closer to the pace when the early fractions are moderate, and still produce that strong late kick. He might have even improved on that Suburban win in the Whitney next time out, since he was off slowly and had to rally into a very moderate pace. If he shows up, I think he's going to win. His main danger may be Diversify, who is the controlling speed in this race. Use him as a backup in multi-race wagers.

Win: 7
Exacta Box: 1,7
Trifecta: 7 with 1,4,5 with 1,3,4,5