by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 2:   7 - 10 - 9 - 4
Race 3:   12 - 15 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   9 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   11 - 8 - 3 - 6
Race 6:   2 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 7
Race 9:   1 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 10:   8 - 5 - 3 - 1

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 6: MANGO M (#2)
There are two runners that are likely to attract most of the attention in the wagering for this race. The one that may go favored is Gambler’s Fallacy, who was a visually impressive winner of his off-the-turf debut at Saratoga. While his pedigree is not overwhelmingly grass-oriented, he did work well over the synthetic surface at OBS as a 2-year-old in training, and the way he floats over dirt suggests that he should be able to transfer his form to turf. It’s unusual to see a first-time starter rally from so far back, especially going a demanding 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga. I think this runner has some ability, but his lack of early speed could be a hindrance in this spot. I prefer Mango M. Little went right for this horse last time in his first start against winners. He seemed to hop at the start as he broke a step slowly, which is especially detrimental considering that he’s a horse who wants to be placed up close to the pace. Joel Rosario had to take a hard hold of him to get him to rate in midpack for the early portion of the race. He advanced well coming into the stretch and briefly appeared as if he would be a late threat before encountering traffic in the final sixteenth of a mile. This time, he is clearly faster than his rivals in the early stages and Tyler Gaffalione will put him on the lead, assuming he breaks cleanly.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,8
Trifecta: 2 with 4,8 with 1,4,6,7,8
 

RACE 7: PALLADIAN BRIDGE (#2)
Ascot Walk is the horse to beat in this spot as she makes her fourth career start. She ran well to break her maiden two back, and was subsequently flattered by that race’s fourth place finisher Big Birthday, who came back to win. Ascot Walk was facing a significantly better field when she made her first start against winners last time, and she gave a solid account of herself in finishing third. If she merely repeats that effort, she will be pretty formidable in this spot, and her tactical speed ensures that she will get a good trip up close to the pace. I’m using her, but I’m not thrilled with her at a short price. Curiousncuriouser is also likely to attract some attention off her two recent wins. She’s cheaper than her main rivals in this spot, but she is coming into this race in top form and has shown improved speed in her recent races. My major problem with her is that she was the beneficiary of circumstances last time. Her main rival, Maho Bay, failed to show up in that Aug. 26 race, finishing last, and Curiousncuriouser was aided by a racetrack that appeared to be favoring outside paths. I’m mostly using her underneath this time. My top pick is Palladian Bridge. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. She ran very well two back at Saratoga, just missing behind superior fillies Hay Field and Dancing All Night. I can excuse her poor effort last time, as she completely lost her composure in the paddock and post parade prior to the race. She never looked like herself before and during the race. I’m going to view it as a good sign that Ray Handal is bringing her back on relatively short rest following that debacle, as she has generally run very well for him since the claim last fall.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,7
Trifecta: 2 with 3,7 with ALL
 

RACE 9: BARKAA (#1)
This Sands Point is easily the most difficult race on the card, as fillies are coming in from a variety of jurisdictions and you can build solid arguments for any of the 8 runners. Chad Brown holds a strong hand with three entrants, but the only one that I want – as my top pick, no less – is Barkaa. Turf condition is going to play an important role in this race, since the going was legitimately soft in the one grass race that was run on Friday. To her credit, Barkaa handled heavy ground in France when she won the Group 3 Prix Vanteaux back in April. That was easily her most impressive performance to date, but she did back it up to some extent with a pair of game tries against Group 1 foes in her last two starts. She didn’t possess the quickness to stay with the leaders over the final furlong of the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches two back, and then she couldn’t quite get on terms last time in a roughly-run Prix de Diane. While she failed to hit the board, she was hardly disgraced in either race, and now she’s beginning U.S. campaign for Peter Brant and Joe Allen, who privately purchased her this spring. She appears to have decent tactical speed and I expect her to be formidable. Capla Temptress may be her primary rival. This filly handled soft going in the Lake Placid last time, so that’s not a major concern. Nine furlongs is probably as far as she wants to go, but she’s coming into this race in top form. The only concern for her, as it is for many in this race, is an apparent lack of early pace. That should also hinder Colonia, who would have interested me more had the turf been firmer. She’s one that appears to have been shipped to the U.S. to get firm ground, which she relished at Arlington two back. I thought she was too far off the pace and didn’t start her run until it was too late in the Del Mar Oaks last time. That said, she could be similarly compromised here. Victorine isn’t quite as classy as Barkaa, but she also comes to the U.S. with decent form and should not be totally dismissed at a price.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 3,6 with ALL
 

RACE 10: TIMELESS BEAUTY (#8)
Things don’t get much easier in the finale. There’s no clear favorite in this wide-open claiming affair for 3-year-old fillies. The Pace Projector is not predicting a fast pace, but there are a number of competitors that will be looking to attain a position near the front of the pack. Reata’s Reward, Beautiful Buzz, Shanghai Glory, and Elizabeth Nicole all do best when they can make the lead, so I think we’re likely to see a contested pace. That could help Karen’s Gem, who was able to get the victory over a few today’s rivals last time. She got a fantastic setup that day, and while Ray Handal does a very good job, she was claimed away from some sharp connections. I’m using her, but I prefer Timeless Beauty. This filly has more tactical speed than Karen’s Gem, and I think she’s more talented. Gary Contessa risked her for a $20,000 tag when she returned from the layoff back in early August, but she easily won that day and seemed to improve with her victory last time out. That win came for Robertino Diodoro, but she’s now been claimed by the duo of Robert Amendola and trainer Patrick Reynolds, who have connected with a few prices off the claim this year. I thought Timeless Beauty had showed hints of ability last winter, and she seems to be building upon that now. The cutback to 6 furlongs may not be ideal, but the pace may mitigate her preference for slightly longer sprint distances. I’ll also use Held Accountable, who has been a disappointment recently, but gets some needed class relief. She, too, should be running on late.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5,10