PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 10 - 8
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 8 - 11
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 7:   10 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 2 - 11
Race 9:   8 - 6 - 10 - 3
Race 10:   11 - 12 - 8 - 4

TOP PLAYS

RACE 5: HISTORY SUPREME (#4)
Of the runners with turf experience, Wild and Funny and Daddy Is a Legend are probably coming out of the strongest race. Wild and Funny is the more seasoned of the two and did well to finish third in that race after a wide trip. Daddy Is a Legend was a bit green and has a right to move forward in her second start. Chad Brown is always dangerous with first-time starters, and Rushing Fall looks like the more dangerous of the two. I'll use them all, but the runner who interests me most at a price is History Supreme. This filly was well meant in her first few starts, but those races may have come on the wrong surface. While her dam was a confirmed dirt router, she is by the solid turf influence Speightstown, and her only half- sibling is the stakes-placed turf winner Bahama Halo. Unless one of the first-time starters shows speed, there doesn't appear to be that much pace in this race, and she could find herself in a favorable position up front.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,8,9,11

RACE 7: BLACK TIDE (#10)
Annals of Time is clearly the horse to beat while racing for the first time since winning last year’s Grade 1 Hollywood Derby in impressive fashion. If he shows up with a halfway decent effort, he is probably going to win this race, but he may need a start off the long break. Given that he's going to be a very short price, I want to take a small shot against him with the only horse who I think has a reasonable chance to pull off the upset. Black Tide changes the complexion of any race in which he participates. There are plenty of speed horses in this field, but none of them as quick as Black Tide early in a race. He elevated his game to a new level last time in the West Point. Even after setting especially taxing early fractions, he fought back gamely in the stretch, finishing only a couple of lengths behind Get Jets and Offering Plan. The other runners who were chasing that pace finished far behind, and there's no doubt in my mind that Black Tide ran the best race. Now, he gets back to a mile, which is probably his best distance.

Win: 10
Exacta Box: 2,3,10
Trifecta: 3,10 with 3,10 with 1,2,9,11

RACE 8: BATTLE MIDWAY (#6)
This is a pretty interesting race with a bunch of contenders coming in from many directions. The most intriguing horse in the field is definitely Faja, who made one start at Gulfstream last winter, winning his debut impressively in a reasonably fast time. He didn't beat much that day, but Todd Pletcher has an awesome record with runners like this. Over the past five years, he is 9 for 15 (60 percent, $2.81 ROI) with horses who won their debuts and then made their second career starts off layoffs of 180 days or longer on dirt. I'm using him, but I'm concerned that he could get caught up in a pace that is predicted to be fast. That's why I'm taking a shot with the late-running Battle Midway. I know that his most recent effort at Saratoga was disappointing, but I think he's much better around one turn. If he can get back to his form from this spring on the turnback, he'll be charging late.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,11

RACE 9: VUE FANTASTIQUE (#8)
The horse to beat is probably Uni, who was a fast-closing second to the vastly improved Proctor's Ledge at Saratoga last time. Even though the pace of that race was slow, the first- and second-place finishers did rally from the back of the pack. Some of that might have had to do with the race flow, but I think they were probably just the two best horses in that field. She's usable here, but I slightly prefer the French invader, Vue Fantastique. This filly was keeping good company throughout the spring and summer in France, winning a Group 3 event and racing competitively against Group 1 company in the Prix Saint-Alary. For whatever reason, she failed to show up last time, but I take it as a good sign that she's running back just four weeks after that effort and getting Lasix for the first time.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,6,9,10
Trifecta: 8 with 6,10 with 2,3,6,9,10

RACE 10: CLOUD CONTROL (#11)
Performance Bonus may just be too good for this field, but I didn't love his effort last time, when he was dropped in class, and now he plummets even lower. It's not as if Chad Brown is gunning for a training title, as he was in the final weeks of the Saratoga meet, so I regard this as a needed and negative dropdown. He'll be on my multirace tickets, but I'm trying to beat him with Cloud Control. This runner has primarily faced New York-breds in recent starts, but I think he's run slightly better than it seems. He encountered some traffic trouble through the stretch last time when he was compromised by a very slow pace. This one-mile distance is perfect for him, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will get a fast pace to close into.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 4,8,12