by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 4: 4 - 8 - 7 - 1/1A
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 9 - 8
Race 6: 4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 8 - 2 - 6 - 9
Race 8: 6 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 7 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 10: 2 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 11: 12 - 7 - 4 - 10
RACE 6: CANDY TYCOON (#4)
Candy Tycoon was the talk of the town before he made his debut at Saratoga, being hailed as one of the best runners in Todd Pletcher’s current crop of 2-year-olds. Unfortunately, little went right on race day as he broke about a half-length slowly and was bumped, putting him at the back of the pack early. From there, he was very rank while attempting to run up on heels down the backstretch. All things considered, he actually did well to get up for third after such a disastrous start. He has continued to train very well out of that race, recently giving graded stakes-placed 3-year-old Spinoff all that he could handle in that August 31 drill. He wasn’t wearing blinkers then and won't be on Saturday. He won’t be much of a price, but I still think he has the potential to be a good one, and the Pletcher barn has been heating up lately. While I think he’s likely to win this race, there are some intriguing first time starters to consider. Aasr has some pedigree being out of a multiple Grade 1-placed dam as he debuts for Chad Brown. The same goes for Sixteen Tons, who is a half-brother Grade 1 Spinaway winner Sippican Harbor, and he appears to be training well for his debut. Yet the firster that interests me most is Spycraft, half of the Godolphin entry. The dam hasn’t yet produced much, but his second dam is $500,000-earner Sugar Shake, who won the Grade 1 Santa Maria on dirt. That makes this dam a half-sister to Kentucky Oaks runner-up Shook Up. This colt showed off good speed when clearly best in a team drill on August 17. While Albertrani isn’t known for his work with firsters, he can have one ready every now and then. Don’t be surprised if this is the live half of the Godolphin entry.
Exacta Box: 1,4
Trifecta: 4 with 1 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5,6 with 1
RACE 7: SHELTER ISLAND (#8)
Balon Rose figures to be favored in this spot after narrowly losing her last start at Saratoga. This filly had been highly touted prior to her debut at Belmont in the spring, but she disappointed both that day and in her subsequent start. It’s no secret that she’s been outworking some stakes-quality horses in the mornings, but that doesn’t always translate into race ability in the afternoon. While she did finally put forth a more competitive effort last time, she had no excuse to lose that race after attending a moderate pace. She can win if no one else steps forward, but she’s nothing special. There’s an argument that Kelleycanrun actually ran better in her most recent start. She exits the second division of that Travers day maiden race in which she was no match for impressive debut winner Magic Star. However, that rival may be headed for stakes very soon, and Kelleycanrun did finish 2 lengths clear of the rest of that field in her turf debut. If she merely repeats that performance, she’s a major player here. I’m using both of these fillies, but my top pick is Shelter Island, who debuts for Chad Brown. This barn is 13 for 54 (24%, $2.34 ROI) with 3-year-old firsters in turf routes at NYRA over 5 years. She was purchased for about $299,000 at the 2017 Arqana Deauville sale in France. It’s taken a while to get her to the races, but she appears to be working well for this debut. She’s a daughter of excellent turf sire Le Havre, who has produced U.S. stakes winner Rymska as well as French stars Avenir Certain and La Cressonniere. This filly is a half-sister to Group 1-placed turfer Vue Fantastique. Notably, the only time Chad Brown worked her on turf on June 24, she went in company with impressive debut winner New and Improved.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,6,9
Trifecta: 8 with 2,6 with 1,2,4,6,9
RACE 8: VALEDICTORIAN (#6)
Significant Form is obviously the horse to beat, but my feeling is that last time was the right opportunity to bet her in the Ballston Spa. She was dismissed at 7-1 due to one poor performance going the wrong distance, and she unsurprisingly got back on track with a victory. While she ran one of her best races to win, she also got a fantastic ground-saving trip from John Velazquez, who did well to keep her covered up in the early stages. She possesses an explosive turn of foot when she’s in form, but she still needs the right trip in order to produce it. I just don’t want to take a short price on her in a race where she’s likely to work out a different sort of trip. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the early leader, and that is almost certain to be Valedictorian. This New Jersey-bred mare got very good over the winter at Gulfstream and she has maintained top form ever since. Her connections have tried some tough spots with her this year, shipping to races like the Distaff Mile on Derby day and the Yellow Ribbon out at Del Mar. While she failed to hit the board in those races, she was hardly disgraced in defeat. She’s always dangerous when able to control the pace, and I love this outside draw for her. As long as s he shows up with her typical performance, I believe she’ll be difficult to overhaul.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,5 with 1,2,4,5
RACE 9: DARK STORM (#7)
Mental Model is likely to go favored in this spot as he exits a blowout maiden win for Chad Brown back in May. He was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice and it’s taken her a while to get him back to the races. He’s now returning over four months later and taking advantage of the starter allowance condition for which he’s eligible. He’ll obviously be difficult to beat if he repeats his last effort, especially since the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. However, I’m somewhat skeptical of that race’s quality. Mental Model took advantage of a strong rail bias that day and the runner-up who returned to win was against the track profile. I’m using him, but I don’t strongly prefer him to Linda Rice’s other runner Big Muddy. He’s a bit cheap, but it’s usually a good sign when Rice gets aggressive and he’s successfully negotiated this distance in the past. They’re arguably the two most likely winners, but I want to take a shot with Dark Storm. Like Mental Model, he’s moving up from the maiden claiming ranks into this starter allowance race. However, he has a recency edge, and he’s coming into this race off a career-top 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I thought he was somewhat compromised by a tentative ride behind a slow pace two back. Yet Eric Cancel did everything run last time, as he placed this horse closer to the early pace and had him in position to overhaul the leader in the stretch. I don’t mind the slight turnback to a mile and I just think George Weaver has finally gotten this once promising runner on track.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,6
RACE 10: TRUE TIMBER (#2)
How are we supposed to assess likely favorite Prince Lucky? He’s been brilliant on occasion, yet two of his last three efforts were awful. You can make some excuses for him, since he may not have cared for a sloppy track in the Westchester, and he was wide over a rail-biased surface in the Met Mile. On the other hand, he’s going to take plenty of money in this spot due to some flashy victories, and I’m just not quite convinced. He got a great setup when winning the State Dinner last time, setting a moderate pace and beating some rivals who haven’t exactly distinguished themselves in subsequent starts. I’m using him defensively, but I think you’re supposed to try and beat him. Pat On the Back makes plenty of sense as an alternative. He’s been in stellar form this year, beating an excellent field of New York-breds going this distance in the Commentator two back. He lost as one of the favorites in the Tale of the Cat last time, but 6 furlongs may be too short for him and he was also sent to the front and guided down to a dead rail for the second half of that race. I’m willing to excuse the effort and think he can rebound. The only major question is one of class, since he’s yet to win outside of New York-bred company. He actually finished behind today’s rival True Timber when they met in the Cigar Mile last year, and I think we need to respect True Timber as he returns from the layoff. His form may look inconsistent to some, but he had major excuses for his last two starts. He actually ran deceptively well in the Bold Ruler, and his Cigar Mile effort would probably make him a winner here. He needs to be ready off the layoff, but I like that McLaughlin is pointing to a tough spot and he has the tactical speed to take advantage of a paceless situation. I don’t fully trust him, but I think he’s one of the few horses in this field who has shown the ability to beat the favorite, and he’s going to be a square price. I’ll primarily use him with Pat on the Back and the stretching-out Plainsman.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 3,6 with 1,3,5,6,7
Trifecta: 3,6 with 2 with 1,3,5,6,7
RACE 11: SUMMER SQUEEZE (#12)
Hit a Provisional probably inherits the favorite's role following the scratch of Kerry's Ring, and she makes plenty of sense after being unlucky to lose at Saratoga last time. She was arguably best in both second-place finishes at the Spa this summer, but she was definitely compromised last time, as she was forced wide into the first turn and was bumped when trying to rally in the lane. I think this one-mile distance is perfect for her, and I expect her to move forward off that last performance with a better trip. She’s arguably the horse to beat, but I want to take a shot with Summer Squeeze at what figures to be a better price. I realize that her last race looks disappointing, but she never had a chance given her trip. Breaking from the 11-post, she was pushed out very wide into the first turn and never got an opportunity to save ground thereafter. It’s hard to go that wide on the inner turf course at Saratoga and still be competitive and she understandably faded. She had actually done well in her previous start at Belmont, earning a respectable speed figure while finishing a close second going a distance that may be too short for her. I love this one-turn mile and I think she’s going to work out a much better trip from this outside draw with a long backstretch run ahead of her. She has the talent to win at this level, and she’s going to be a square price.
Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 4,7,10,13
Trifecta: 7,12 with 7,12 with 1,4,6,10,13